February 25, 2024 - 10:55am

Nikki Haley did something unusual on the eve of yesterday’s brutal home-state defeat. On a Friday call with reporters, her campaign manager announced a seven-figure ad buy, arguing that “this has never just been about who can win a Republican primary.” 

Sure enough, last night Haley lost another Republican primary, this time by roughly 20 points. The former United Nations ambassador has lost Iowa, New Hampshire, and now her “sweet” South Carolina by double digits. 

Less discussed, however, is that Haley went into every one of those major races with more money than her opponents. Even in Iowa, where the DeSantis campaign infamously concentrated its resources, Haley and her allies spent more. She lost big. 

In New Hampshire, Trump spent less than half of Haley’s $30 million on his 11-point victory. After that loss, Haley poured $14 million into South Carolina while her opponent didn’t even break seven figures. Heading into Super Tuesday on 5 March, when a third of all delegates are up for grabs, she trails Trump by nearly 60 points in the RealClearPolitics national average. 

This is not what most people would consider a good investment. Nonetheless, wealthy donors are keeping Haley flush with cash, as evidenced by the huge ad buy announced on Friday. Clearly her backers aren’t betting on a win as big donors often do. They are, however, betting on a winner. 

By positioning herself as a dogged challenger to Trump, Haley is winning hearts and minds in the corridors of power. She’s rubbing elbows with future benefactors in the donor class and media. She’s earning goodwill with Trump’s bitter opponents whose bank accounts are as big as her ambitions. What they’re backing is essentially a Haley-led public relations campaign against the former president. (And potentially a decent head start for Haley should some kind of black swan event take Trump out of the race.) 

For her part, Haley can ride the post-primary wave into a new position of prominence among the powerful people who soured on her for serving Trump in the first place. This is why she didn’t drop out after Trump won 54% of the vote on a budget in New Hampshire, and why she didn’t drop out before her fellow South Carolinians sided with her opponent by a wide margin. She’s not running just to win the support of Republican voters. 

Haley’s most powerful argument has little to do with policy. “Does anyone seriously think Joe Biden or Donald Trump will unite our country to solve our problems?” she asked in her concession speech last night, echoing frequent statements from her campaign, including “70% of Americans don’t want to watch Grumpy Old Men stumble across America when our country is on the brink and the world is on fire.” 

On the trail, Haley assures voters repeatedly that she’s their best bet at beating Biden. Some polling bears this out, and yet it’s telling that all the money in the world can’t convince GOP voters to ditch Trump. As recently as January, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found 61% of Republicans surveyed agreed they were “tired of seeing the same candidates in presidential elections and want someone new”. 

On paper, that’s a massive opening for a younger candidate with conservative bonafides and plenty of money. But “someone new” didn’t translate for any of the Republican candidates with much more traditional political backgrounds than Trump’s. 

“40% is not some tiny group,” Haley insisted during last night’s concession speech, referring to the votes she won at home. She isn’t wrong, but 17% actually is a tiny group — and that’s how many GOP voters support the former governor nationally. Thankfully for her, though, to run a winning campaign this time around Haley only needs support from around 1% of the country.


Emily Jashinsky is culture editor at The Federalist and co-host of Counter Points.

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