October 8, 2023 - 12:00pm
Some Israelis are calling it their 9/11, but the images this weekend were more redolent of the 1968 Tet Offensive, when Viet Cong and North Vietnamese troops took over towns and military bases across the South, including laying siege to the US Embassy in Saigon.
Of course, in that case it was aimed against foreign military forces propping up what was essentially a puppet dictatorship, whereas this time it featured external aggression aimed at killing and capturing as many civilians in as sensationalist a manner as possible.
And whereas the images of Viet Cong fighters in Saigon signalled the beginning of the end of the US involvement in Vietnam, in this case the attack is surely a short- and long-term misstep for Hamas.
Firstly, the recent global focus on the authoritarian and aggressive nature of the current Israeli government will be forgotten. There will be likely be further attacks from Hezbollah and Iranian assets in Syria, as well an escalation in the West Bank that will postpone criticism of the government for now.
Secondly, while Hamas wants these attacks to send a message to those Arab governments that have normalised relations with Israel, Saturday’s violence makes it harder for such nations to criticise Israeli aggression.
The Saudi government itself has issued a statement variously translated as blaming the attacks on Israel and a more neutral call for de-escalation. But the attempts to gain Saudi recognition and the Abraham Accords with other Arab nations are only one part of the alliance being formed by Israel against the Iran-Hamas-Hezbollah coalition.
Israel is the major supplier of weapons to Azerbaijan, providing around 60% of Azerbaijani arms imports from 2017 to 2020. In return, Azerbaijan has granted Israel access to positions on the Iranian border for both intelligence operations and as bases for any potential future war against Iran.
Azerbaijan is not only a Muslim country, but also a Shiite one: in March it became the first country with a Shiite Muslim majority to open an embassy in Israel. The escalation by Azerbaijan two weeks ago took place in the broader context of Russian overstretch and weakness in Ukraine, as well as Baku knowing it can rely on the support of its Turkish patron. Ankara has been cooler in its response than Baku, but still remains neutral in tone, like Pakistan.
Therefore, while Israel is in a stronger position in the region than it has ever been, this moment looks like the last chance saloon for Iran and its proxies.
As Asef Bayat pointed out 25 years ago, Iran was an unlikely territory for political Islamism to begin with: the success of the Islamic Revolution owed much to the systematic elimination of the liberal, secular and socialist opposition as it did to the popularity of radical Islam. On the anniversary of last year’s sustained and unprecedented anti-government protests, the Iranian regime seems at its weakest moment in decades.
It is not impossible to imagine a secular Iran: indeed, in the next decade or so it is easier to imagine the toppling of the Iranian regime than it is the establishment of a Palestinian state. It is easier still to see Saudi and Israel swapping trade and tourists the way the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco do today. What hope then for the Palestinians?
This weekend’s atrocities will surely mark the end of the status quo that has prevailed over the past 20 or 30 years. Yet if Israel, Saudi and the USA hoped that they could ignore the Palestinian issue, today has made that impossible.
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SubscribeAnd yet read comments on the Guardian and you’ll see endless apologists for Hamas and Hezbollah. Even on the BBC the tone is neutral – as though condemning the barbarity would put them on the wrong side of the debate, as far as they’re concerned.
Once again, the caring sharing Left show their true colours – as the Labour slogan almost said, “For the many, not the Jew”.
BBC main Headline ‘ More than 500 Israeli’s killed’. That’s Israeli’s PT, not Palestinians. Second story – the fear as Gunmen entered a Kibbutz. Guardian Main headline – ‘Israeli death toll rises to 600’.
You clearly zone out the bits that don’t drop into your prejudice.
Have to say, I never look at the BBC Website – but the radio coverage yesterday spoke of Israeli rocket attacks, and retaliatory strikes, without ever giving a sense of the horrific attacks on Israelis
I think I agree and might compromise at “slightly biased.” The first BBC article I read felt fair, explaining that Hamas was recognised as a terrorist organisation, has repeatedly attacked Israel, etc. But there does seem to be 2 good cases of an BBC anti-Israel bias. a) The BBC did not cover the story in any detail until the Israeli retaliation began and then ran the main story “Israel retaliates after attack” (I can’t testify to this, but several people have alleged it) . b) There was a local BBC story “London police patrols increase amid celebration claims” that started with a picture of a Gaza building hidden by smoke and the title “Israel has been carrying out retaliatory air strikes in Gaza.” This seems to me to miss the point of the headline/story and a picture of the attacks on civilians in Israel is the bigger story to attach this to, or a picture of anti-semitism in London would be more relevant.Neither is a slam dunk evidence in my mind.
Easy but I’m going to say it
Hamas attacked defenceless concert goers
“Sow the wind and reap the whirlwind”
I think we are about to find out that the leftist support for the Palestinians is about to cost it.
They are either going to have to reverse course, shut up or get ostracized politically.
I also think that we are in the early stages of a way that is likely going to expand to include the entire ME. Israel cannot and will not let this go or even just respond proportionately. They are going to have no choice but to seize Gaza and purge it. Just no option.
Iran will not be able to tolerate that, they cannot afford to be seen to be losing even through a proxy. They will have to ramp up support for Hezbollah and Hezbollah will have to act in support of the Palestinians in Gaza. Then, Israel will have no choice but to go after them as well.
Iran will then be pressed to provide more direct support and to threaten any Arab country that has made any kind of peace with Israel either through their proxy’s or less likely directly.
Those states in turn will look to each other and to the US for support. Russia cannot do it and they are kinda aligned with Iran anyway. China cannot do it, they lack the military reach and they have been working all sides. The US would jump in and provide support for a variety of reasons from just a historical support for Israel and for Saudi Arabia, but also because it would be able to bring some leverage on Saudi Arabia regarding the BRICS and dedollarization. Never mind that the US would be more than happy to help humiliate and destabilize the Iranian regime.
The Iranians may be pushing now via their proxies precisely because of their issues at home. They could be looking for a fight to distract and unite their people. They may think that they can control it and keep it a proxy war but that may only be true if their proxies win and are not crushed. They cannot afford to lose face. Their proxies start to get crushed and they will feel compelled, somehow, to get involved.
Then, all bets are off.
and meanwhile on Unherd comments it’s apparently wokery, Democrats & Biden that led to the attacks, whilst it never woulda happened under Trump- have we reached peak Unherd?
It is not entirely implausible that things like the Ukraine invasion and this incursion would not have happened under Trump.
Like him, hate him, makes no difference, he was volatile and unpredictable and not afraid to cross lines. As a geopolitical enemy you gotta wonder how far he will go and what will trigger it.
Put yourself in Hamas’s place. If Trump was in office you would seriously have to wonder if he would launch dozens or even hundreds of cruise missiles into Gaza over the taking of American hostages. Iran would have to wonder if he would just skip over the proxy and attack them. Which, he just might do. But what makes Trump scarier, is that he would have no interest in taking either place. He would not send in troops and look to control or convert people. He is not Bush. He would simply destroy everything of value, kill as many as he thought would make and impact, and maybe a lot more, and walk away and dare you to tempt him again. He would wipe out infrastructure, wipe out military bases, target leaders, he would probably even attack oil fields, something no Bush would ever do. And if he thought for one second that the Iranians had or were willing to use a A bomb, he would not hesitate to turn Tehran into a sheet of glass.
That is the advantage a Trump has. He has no brakes and he is unpredictable. That makes him frightening.
The draft-dodging Trump is yellow to his core and would never do anything against a Putin, or the mushroom head yahoo in N Korea
Hallo, the Abraham accords?Moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem? Neither were particularly frightening. Telling the EU that they should spend more on defence? Ditto. Getting the vaccine done in 8 months, not frightening. Nor was any of this unpredictable, unless you are the Washington machine.
I agree with all of this and would add that under Biden it is not really clear who is running the US. Obviously it is not him. That lack of leadership leads to compromise, delay and lack of decisive leadership.
It has a few years to go, but the apartheid state won’t last forever
No, it will not, but I do not think it will end the way you think.
Israel had just been given a blank check to take all of Gaza permanently and they will get little in the way of international backlash for purging Gaza of its Palestinian residents.
The West Bank may be all that the Palestinians will be left with and whether they get to keep that will depend heavily on how the residents of the West Bank and the Palestinian Authority behave and react to these attacks.
It will also depend on how Hamas and Iran and Hezbollah respond. If we see hostages being killed or tortured on the internet, it will simply push the Israelis to wipe out any Palestinian presence and it will give them all the ammunition they need to defend themselves on the world stage.
Bottom line, most of the world had not given a hoot about the Palestinians in years. They are an annoyance to Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the other gulf states that tolerate them as cheap labor. Beyond that their existence and their politics, particularly because their militant groups have been aligned with Iran, makes them an irritant. They stand up occasionally for them for only two reasons. First, they do not want the Palestinians coming into their countries as refugees. Second, it does not look good for them with other Islamic countries. But have no doubt they fear and hate Iran more than they do Israel.
If Israel shattered Gaza and the West Bank, so long as the Palestinians do not show up on their doors, most of the gulf states would do the obligatory condemnation and then move on. But then, Europe and the US and Turkey do not want them. I doubt the Iranians would want them. We know Jordan and Saudi Arabia do not want them. Somehow I do not see the Lebanese being thrilled or the Syrians. So, where the heck would they go except maybe Iran.
Israel continues to exist because its backed by the US and to a lesser extent by Europe. do you really believe that 10 years from now a country like France will support Israel, or Belgium, or the UK, or Germany, demographics is destiny my friend. so you can stick a fork in Israel, its done
Once you know who holds the door open for immigration in to the West, you can laugh a little more
What I think is that Israel is a nuclear power. It may not be talked about a lot, but it is and it is one reason the Iranians want a bomb so badly. For that reason alone the west and most of the ME are not going to let Israel fail. They are not gonna risk nuclear weapons falling into the hands of a group like Hamas or even the PA.
I think the democrats are going to get hammered next year and that there is a real chance that Trump will win. And…Trump being Trump, willing to do the opposite of whatever Biden did, will be more than willing to launch cruise missiles into Iran, sink their boats, shoot down their aircraft.
I can easily see Israel simply deciding to engage is straight up ethnic cleansing of not just Gaza but the West Bank, assuming the PA does not simply bend the knee and crack down on any Hamas types. Given the animosity between Hamas and the PA, that is not out of the question. But Gaza will be lost.
Lot of reasons that Biden will lose to Trump, but two of them are the southern border and now, Iran. Some of those hostages taken, as many as a couple of dozen, are being reported as being American. Do not doubt for a moment that even Biden will be willing to send in marines to Gaza if anything happens to any of them. He would be crucified if he did not. He has already ordered aircraft carrier groups to the area to support Israel
As for France and the rest? We are going to see the Afd in Germany come to power and they are gonna be Trump on steroids. Le Pen or another right winger will probably replace Macron and for similar reasons. Do not be surprised to start seeing both or either, mass deportations at gun point or attacks on immigrants in large waves. Even Sweden has had enough and has called up their reservists.
The DEI, Woke wave, the luxury policies of the elite are fast coming to an end. Do not be surprised to see Italian or Greek coast guard ships being willing to ram boats that refuse to turn around and go back. Do not be surprised to see the militaries of the Balkans and other pass through states start to lock up and put in open air prisons any migrants trying to get through.
Crackdowns are coming all across the west.
Yes, the worm is turning in the west.
Well said
How can you get rid of 2.5 million residents? A Palestinian Holocaust?
Diversity is Israel’s strength
Diversity in Israel? Apartheid more likely
I’m gobsmacked by Palestinian supporters parading around in major western cities like New York. Regardless of how you feel about Israel, this is not the time to me marching around, showing your support for Palestine.
I agree – it’s extraordinary and sinister – and not a little threatening. Yet even on pages such as these, there are those who unashamedly support the indefensible and believe themselves to be on the moral high ground. The Guardian is many times worse.
Did you see the photo of the protest in support of Hamas by the Democrat Socialists of America, AOC’s group, in the NYP?
Got people holding up actual Swastikas along with Palestinian banners.
Sick. Even sicker when you consider that one of the hostages taken is reportedly a holocaust survivor.
These free-Palestine protesters are showing the world who they are: supporters of terrorists, rapists and murderers of innocent civilians.
Choose wisely who you support.
I quite agree; I had to keep on turning off Radio4 news to stop the bile from rising.
All the interviews with the Israeli side were practical and fact-based. Then they let a Palestinian woman (naturally) play the victim for minutes on end as if they had nothing to do with the start of the violence, and as if the Israelis weren’t terrified out of their wits in exactly the same way.
Don’t even get me started about the men spitting on that poor woman’s body on the back of that jeep in Gaza and shouting ‘allahu akbar’; it’s simply nauseating. I’ve got no respect for these people at all or their ‘compassionate’ religion.
Not quite as biased as Brexit, but straight out of the lefty narrative rulebook. The BBC just needs defunding. I’m so glad I don’t pay the licence fee.
Defunding is no longer enough. Abolition.
The Author’s comparison with the shock of the Tet offensive exactly how I felt yesterday hearing and watching this. And with Tet the VietCong signalled they’d never be defeated and US resolve was never the same again, esp at home. Could that be the same scenario?
But no I think the Author right and some of that initial reaction wrong – this will strengthen the position Israel has been taking that the Palestinians never want peace and murderous whenever the opportunity presents.
With Gaza being one of the most densely populated small plots of land in the World the IDF is about to lose many Sons and Daughters in horrible street fighting one fears, but Palestinians will lose many more. God help them all.
The persistent ignorance of the Tet Offensive never fails to amaze. In fact, Tet was a disaster for the Vietcong in every possible way (excepting the fevered mind of Walter Cronkite). They were immediately and utterly wiped out everywhere except Hue, which was the focal point for the bulk if the entire Vietcong army, and Hue was retaken by the army and marines in about a month. So total was the defeat of the North that it took them to 1973 to rebuild their army and recommence hostilities.
What you have written is true but also irrelevant. The United States lost the war regardless of any battlefield victories.
Tet was certainly a military defeat TA, but psychological defeat too? Not so sure. Arguably the reverse, and 7 years later they achieved victory.
But whilst the initial shock similar to the terror in Israel I don’t think it plays out like that at all.
You mention that Israel “has been taking” a position that the Palestinians don’t want peace, as if there’s an alternative theory that might stand up to the slightest bit of scrutiny? I’d be interested to hear it.
The Palestinians probably do want peace, if my conversations with many Palestinians working abroad are any guide. However Hamas will not have it, and they haven’t faced an open election in many years.
I agree. My fiance is a Palestinian and also Jewish.
Most of them just want to get on with their lives. Sure, they want Israel off their backs but largely they just want to get on with their lives.
But the Hamas’s of the world and the Hezbollah’s of the world, pushed by Iran, are not gonna let that happen and the majority of the Palestinians are as afraid of Hamas and Hezbollah as the are of the Israelis.
You are not going to get any kind of peace until you exterminate Hamas and like minded groups. You are not gonna be able to do that as long as they have the support of the larger population, whether that support is offered willingly or under duress.
Yes, too broad wasn’t I. Hamas don’t want it
The author may be right. But compare how many pro-Palestine demonstrations there were globally Vs pro-Israel ones. Especially in Muslim states. Even in supposed allies of Israel like Turkey. This is after Hamas committed atrocities. One can only imagine what it may be like once Palestinian casualties ramp up. Or if the war expands to West Bank and Lebanon. The governments in supposed US allies like Kuwait and Qatar openly blame Israel for what happened yesterday.
I know these Muslims states are mostly not democracies but it seems they can’t wholly ignore public opinion in their own backyard.
I can think of two flawed Muslim democracies but every other Muslim state is authoritarian or broken.
Out of tragedy comes a cold hard opportunity to drive these elements into the sea. And to finish more of the international work the Trump administration started with General Soleimani.
It seems more and more like we need to completely eliminate Iran, preferably before they get nuclear weapons.
Western nations need to bite the bullet, gear up, and wipe them out.
Wall Street Journal just reported that it was Iran that ordered the attacks and provided the means and planning.
That story appears to be gaining traction.
If true, SOMEBODY is gonna bomb Iran. Israel or the US or one supported by the other. The ME is about to blow I think.
Time to go fill my gas tank before oil explodes on Monday.
Hamas is not threatening to execute the hostages it took.
If they do it the way they did the IDF soldiers, they will use beheading.
They are promising to post videos of the executions online with sound.
Somehow, I do not think that is gonna impact the Israelis the way that Hamas might think. The Israelis are not the US or the Europeans, they are not going to cower in political fear and give in. No, I suspect that it will just enrage the vast majority of them and cause them to escalate their bombing and increase the scale of an invasion and likely never turn Gaza back over to the Palestinians.
It’s really hard to see how this develops. The Palestinians and Iranians never seem able to put together much of a plan or strategy. I don’t suspect they will do that now.
But raw brutality like we saw with the killing of civilians and the taking of hostages will get a reaction. I just don’t think the reaction will be in the interests of the Palestinians.
The reaction from some in the United States has been appalling. However just the cause, terrorism is not justified. Sandy Cortez and her ilk should have demanded the release of the hostages as the message. Do that, and then talk about other things.
Hamas needs Israel as an existential enemy to justify its own oppressive (and corrupt) rule in Gaza. The Mullers in Iran need the same. Similarly, Arafat could afford to accept Ehud Barak’s astonishing offer in 2000, and lose his alibi for his own corrupt regime.
In other words, what looks like a catastrophic mistake, could be relying on a monstrous response from Israel and America for the sake of regime survival – no matter what the cost to the people they rule.
Now pushing for war with Iran, good luck with that
It is not out of the question. It really is not.
The Iranian regime is feeling a lot of pressure at home. One way to unite your country is to point to a foreign enemy.
Israel is going to have no choice but to occupy and probably purge Gaza. That is likely to trigger Hezbollah which then means that Israel will have to respond and crush them too.
The Iranian regime cannot afford to lose face. If they see both their major proxies getting crushed they may well have to take more direct action. They may well have to try and threaten and bully other Arab states to press Israel or to even involve themselves directly. I could see them attack oil tankers leaving Saudi Arabia as a punishment for having made peace with Israel. I could see them try something like providing antiaircraft missiles to the West Bank or send drones, the same drones they send to Russia.
There are a lot of ways that this could spiral out of control and result in a broad ME war involving Turkey and the US and that means NATO.
Russia is in no position to do anything at the moment.
China lacks the military reach and has been playing all sides to push their belt and road initiative and dedollarization.
Poor Iraq is a wreck that is caught in the middle.
Never doubt that China and Russia were not, at the least, aware of the plans to attack Isreal, and very likely participated in the planning with Iran.
Destroy Iran’s oil industry (oil refineries and oil fields) and their nuclear program sites. That will nock their d**ks in the dirt for awhile.