September 4, 2023 - 1:00pm
The Ukrainian counteroffensive has reportedly proceeded at a more rapid pace in recent weeks, notching up some noteworthy successes. Last week, Ukrainian forces liberated the village of Robotyne, after which White House spokesman John Kirby praised their “notable progress” over the previous 72 hours in a southern offensive near the Zaporizhzhia region.
Meanwhile, over the weekend, Ukrainian Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskiy said that his country’s forces had successfully breached Russia’s first defensive line near Zaporizhzhia and that — propitiously for his side — Moscow had only committed 20% of its time and resources to each of the second and third lines. However, despite the most recent news indicating that the momentum is with Ukraine, it would appear that its allies are seeking not to raise hopes but, instead, to manage expectations.
Yesterday, former British general Sir Richard Barrons wrote in the Financial Times that Ukraine’s counterattack will not only fail to throw Russia out of the country, but was never even expected to do so. Rather, it has demonstrated that Russia can be defeated, albeit next year or in 2025.
Former US Ambassador to Nato Ivo Daalder last month told the Wall Street Journal that a similar realisation had taken hold in the US administration as officials understood that “Ukraine’s not going to be regaining all its territory any time soon.” A US intelligence assessment predicted that Ukraine will fail to reach the key logistical hub of Melitopol, while Western policymakers and military strategists are, according to the WSJ, already thinking ahead to next year’s spring counter-offensive.
There are multiple reasons for the slow progress in Ukraine’s counterattack, not least the scale of the challenge. As Sir Richard notes, progress made in the south this summer amounts to approximately eight miles of regained territory, with another 55 miles to go if Ukraine is to meet its much-vaunted goal of reaching the Sea of Azov and cutting the land bridge to Crimea.
Additionally, Ukrainian forces have had to battle against Russia’s well-established and extensive network of fortifications, including mines, anti-tank ditches and “Dragon’s Teeth” barricades. Ukraine’s recently dismissed Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov has complained that a square metre of territory can contain as many as five Russian mines. This has significantly slowed the progress of Ukrainian forces — Tarnavskiy reported minefields trapping Ukrainian forces for weeks as infantry sappers attempted to clear an assault route on foot and Russian troops targeted vehicles using drones and shells.
That is before turning to issues with the supply of munitions and training. The US will not start training F-16 fighter jet pilots until October and Danish Acting Defence Minister Troels Poulsen has predicted that Ukraine will only start to see results early next year. While 63,000 Ukrainian soldiers have undertaken training in Nato countries, time pressures mean this has often amounted to little more than a basic “crash course”, with Ukrainian soldiers reporting debilitating disconnects between Nato exercises and the realities of the frontline.
Last week, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba launched his own defensive operation, telling critics of his country’s counteroffensive to “shut up” and “try to liberate one square centimetre by themselves”. The most recent progress should not distract from the likelihood that this will be one in a series of counteroffensives, imitating last year’s pattern of progress in the autumn followed by a winter stalemate and more significant movement in the spring. This is unlikely to be the last time Ukraine will have to justify its slow progress in the war.
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Subscribe“Ukraine’s not going to be regaining all its territory any time soon.”
The sooner everyone accepts that this is *never* going to happen, the better.
Even if Ukraine regained all its territory, the underlying problems will not go away. Imagine what would happen in Crimea, where most of the population was already ethnic Russian and which has been in Russia’s hands for nearly 10 years. Do you think Ukraine would forgive Crimeans and welcome them back with open arms? Not likely.
Maybe give real Crimean’s a vote. Last time they had a fair vote in the 90s they voted to be part of Ukraine by a huge majority.
Crimeans voted to be an autonomous republic in the 1990s, largely separate from Ukraine and Russian leaning. Crimea had its own government and its own laws. Its main tie to Ukraine was to bleed Ukraine’s treasury, as it was chronically unable to balance its budget.
Western polling organizations found that Crimeans genuinely did want to join Russia. And no wonder. Most Crimeans speak Russian rather than Ukrainian. Pensions quadrupled in value. The Russian military had many more troops in Crimea than Ukraine.
Historical ties between Crimea and Russia are much stronger than those between Crimea and Ukraine. Russia began to build its naval base in Sevastopol in 1772, and annexed Crimea a few years later. Crimea was then part of Russia for centuries, and was part of Ukraine for just a few decades.
“According to a survey carried out by Pew Research Center in 2014, the majority of Crimean residents say they believed the referendum was free and fair (91%) and that the government in Kyiv ought to recognize the results of the vote (88%).” [Wikipedia]
One poll a few years before the Russian invasion of Ukraine found that only 2% of Crimeans wanted to return to Ukraine. That says a lot.
That was when a pro Russian regime was in power.. best of both worlds.. however, with Kyev targeting ethnic Russians in Donbas, banning all opposition, making the Russian language illegal and the atrocities in Odessa I think a vote today might be different, don’t you?
Ukrainian politicians have already thought of that – according to Oleksiy Danilov once Ukraine wins back Crimea, it will be thoroughly cleansed. They admit it will be neither easy nor pretty, and would have been easier if they’d done it years ago, but it is still possible and necessary.
Troubling.
Cleansed of what? Russian speakers?
Bandera style no doubt.. bring back the good old concentration camps right?
Hi Neville
“Tries, and fails, to keep the note of glee out of his voice”
I noticed the BBC suddenly had two consecutive stories on two days last week about Ukrainian losses and other issues and I thought; ‘Oh, look ! The narrative’s changing’ .
Oh, it is beginning to have the aura of the Vietnam War where American generals kept telling their political bosses…. “ just another 20,000 troops and the war will be over by spring”. Wait till the HIMAR’s arrive, then the Leopards and Bradleys and now the F16s are the magic bullets. (Although if you read military analysis of the potential role for these fighters it is not very promising at all.) And then again the ‘sanctions will bring the Russians to their knees’ is another notion that has no basis in reality.
The Ukrainians are definitely winning the public relations war and that isn’t surprising knowing the background of Zelensky and his inner circle. It’s just that other war, you know, the one on the ground in Eastern Ukraine, that isn’t going so well.
Sounds like a good ole boondoggle for the military industrial complex.
Big difference between getting involved in the Vietnamese civil war and trying to prevent another European genocide. For starters Americans are not doing the fighting.
In Britain most of our spending goes on a welfare state that encourages idleness and a dire health system. As a high paying taxpayer I have no objection that a small amount is used to stop the new Russian Hitler.
European genocide? Vladimir Putin has no intention, let alone ability, to carry out a genocide.
A Eurooean genocide? Like the terrible atrocitues committed by Ukraine against the large portion of Poland forcibly incorporated jnto their country after WW2?
What a mess. This is a black hole of money and young men.
You think we should sit back, do nothing and allow another European genocide to happen?
Off you go Liam, you could be in Kiev in a matter of days, and the Ukrainians will give you a uniform and a gun in an instant, you could be on the front line by Friday, and dead by Saturday
It would be much more practical and realistic for me just to defend a small amount of U.K. taxes to at least try to stop a Russian Hitler. Fortunately most U.K. citizens feel the same. Do you not feel SHAME for wanting to do zero?
I have consistently argued for a peace deal, and it was possible not so long ago
The longer the war continues, the worse it will be for the Ukraine
Nonsense. You’ve got a b***r for the Russians.
Peace deal – with the Russians? Their word means SFA. You poor naive booby
I really hope something happens to get the two sides around a table soon, because continuing with ordering thousands more Russian and Ukrainian conscripts to maim and kill each other is unconscionable at this stage.
Don’t mind me, but I seem to recall this whole thing started as the “Spring” Offensive.
Many people seem to forget that this war has been going on for over nine years. The Minsk accords were a good attempt to at least put a pause to war and try to sort the whole mess out. Ukraine and the West scuppered that. Then after the Russian invasion a similar agreement was nearly reached, until the UK and the US scuppered that.
As Donald Trump and others point out, an end to this war could be had quickly. Instead we hear that Ukraine will get as much support as it wants for as long as it wants in order to regain complete control over Crimea and all its other territory. That’s a recipe for endless war. We can, and should, do better.
The Ukraine need to build a whole new army for another Spring offensive next Summer, for some reason they believe the results of that offensive will be different, send more Leopards ASAP, send more money and coke for Zel
Where’s Logan gone?
Yeah where is he, gone AWOL
Come on Martin, give us a wave
Perhaps he’s on the Front line?
Wars and the decimation of countries provide rich pickings for western businesses. Contracts have already been signed to ‘help’ Ukraine rebuild it’s infrastructure. No wonder the west are supportive of so much destruction.
It’s still a mystery why Obama let Crimea go so easily. Biden, Blinken and Nuland were obviously sidelined, while Cam and Boris were too busy playing tennis with the oligarchs in London.
Now the propaganda war has come back to bite Washington because military objectives have been blatantly unclear for most this year. All the BBC could come up with today is ‘How can the Ukrainian war be driven by neo-Fascist militias when the President is Jewish?’
Well, Zelensky was elected on a platform to implement the Minsk Accords and maintain some understanding of shared sovereignty in the Donbas republic between the ethnic Russian and Ukrainian population. He still recalled his remit in April 2022 when he was reportedly willing to return to the treaty before the neocon revivalists in Washington sent Mr Johnson to Kiev to scupper Obama’s original agreement.
The Minsk Accords did not even require shared sovereignty. All they required was limited cultural autonomy within Ukraine – something Ukraine would have to implement anyway if it wanted to join the EU (unless of course the Baltic States Waiver permitting discrimination against ethnic Russians is extended to Ukraine).
I remember the EU ordering the Baltic states not to discriminate against its Russian speakers as a condition of accession. When did the Baltic waiver come about? Where can I read about it?
Just another one more push, eh?
Surely there must be a less destructive way for Wall Street to bleed American taxpayers dry.
Secret recordings from NATO head quarters…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rblfKREj50o
Brilliant!
It’s all over ‘bar the shouting’.
If only, thousands more will die
There are now over 50K Ukrainians who have lost at least one limb, based on that, the number of dead is catastrophic. The neocons want them to fight to the last man
I don’t understand those with the view point that appeasement is the solution.
Where exactly is the geopolitical line that Russia cannot cross ?
They were given Crimea, that was not enough, they took parts of the Donbas – that was not enough, they have tried to take the whole nation, and we think the west can talk our way out of it?
Do we give them that slice of Moldova too ? Maybe a couple of Eastern European states ? Everything is which is not nato?
They are not using the same ideology as the west. He wishes to expand Russia permanently for future generations of Russians. Not for money, or short term gains What bargaining do we have to counter that concept? Other than resistance?
Something along the lines of the Minsk accords would work. Ukraine has twice backed out of agreements like that. I bet you that now they wish they hadn’t.
Ukraine was a poor country before this war. They will be even worse off after it’s over, no matter how it ends. The more quickly it ends, the better. A negotiated end to the war need not be appeasement.
Remember the words of Cicero: “As for me, I cease not to advocate peace. It may be on unjust terms, but even so it is more expedient than the justest of civil wars.”
Similar to what Donald Trump, who with his hyperbole may be more Ciceronian than Cicero, said about the Ukraine war. He doesn’t think in terms of winning, he thinks in terms of stopping the dying.
Could you enlighten us as to the salient differences between a “negotiated peace deal” and “appeasement”?
Russia invaded Crimea. They did not invade the Donbass. Do you honestly think Ukraine would have cut off medical supplies and pensions to beat Russian soldiers? Why would the rebel Ukranians be imprisoned in Rostov whrn they crossed the border in 2014? ( Sunday Tines, they had 2 journos embedded there).
Moldova would like to have back not only Transnistria but the Ukrainian territory lying befween Moldova and the Black Sea, also seized by the USSR and not returned after 1991.