September 28, 2023 - 10:30am
With national primary polls giving Trump a considerable lead, his rivals’ only hope of beating him is to change the dynamic of the race. It’s not clear any of them did that last night, in a debate characterised by little more than crosstalk and fury.
Only former New Jersey governor Chris Christie and Florida governor Ron DeSantis levelled any significant criticisms of Trump, while the other candidates seemed more intent on attacking each other. South Carolina senator Tim Scott notably got into a spat with Nikki Haley about the cost of curtains in her official residence as ambassador to the United Nations. Yes, curtains.
The GOP has fundamentally shifted to the positions Trump championed in 2016. By and large, the candidates agreed on hawkishness on both illegal immigration and China: Haley even proposed suspending normal trade relations with the latter until it tamps down on the flow of fentanyl into the US.
But, though these are now practically settled issues, Trump’s rivals can’t match his original madcap heterogeneity on policy. Trump often attacks his rivals in the GOP from both the Right and the centre — and sometimes even from the Left (as seen in his recent break with pro-life activists). Many of his challengers have therefore been forced to try and position themselves to the Right of Trump. But it’s still unclear what the most effective strategy looks like.
For instance, some populist-aligned Republicans have spoken favourably about the United Auto Workers strike; Missouri senator Josh Hawley even recently joined them on the picket line. On the debate stage, however, the strike received a more mixed reaction. Scott argued that the workers were expecting too much, praised economic growth, and attacked Joe Biden. Haley and North Dakota governor Doug Burgum developed more of a structural critique of the way that Biden climate policies and inflation may exacerbate workers’ worries. However, there was not necessarily the full-throated endorsement of the strike that some Right-populists have offered.
Another telling moment of avoidance happened when Mike Pence was asked about the repeal of the Affordable Care Act. He immediately pivoted to talking about mass shootings. When the moderators pressed him on this topic, he spoke generally about the importance of funnelling federal healthcare funds to the individual states to manage.
In his 2016 campaign, by contrast, Trump simultaneously pledged to repeal the ACA and to “take care of everyone”. That rebuke of austerity probably helped draw some working-class voters to him. Yet during the Trump presidency, Republicans never settled on a policy package that addressed voter anxieties about health care — which is perhaps why their effort to repeal and replace the ACA foundered. And if last night was any guide, Trump’s challengers don’t have an alternative.
This lack of vision could prove their undoing. A recent poll of New Hampshire and Iowa voters indicated that fewer than a quarter of Republicans there are locked-in Trump supporters. There could be a window for his rivals here — if they can make a sustained case as an alternative to Trump and show a similar creativity in forming a coalition. And if they don’t? The inertia of the race will continue to favour the former president.
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SubscribeThere are a lot of reasons for it, but in the end, Trump IS going to be the nominee.
Old school republicanism is dead. It has been dead since probably 2008, it has just taken this long for the establishment to start to wake up and realize it. It has taken that long for the old school republicans in office to die off or retire enough for this fact to show.
Really? The change began not long after Bill Clinton left office. He turned the democrats into another version of the republicans of the day, he kept the neoliberal economic agenda, combined it with the neoconservative foreign policy of the republicans and swapped out pro abortion for anti abortion. That is a simple take, but it is an accurate summary I think.
Obama sort of followed with the economic policy and then he showed that the democrats were gonna back Wall Street over Main Street in the financial crisis and implemented “to big to jail”. His foreign policy was just Bush’s policy on steroids. It is more complicated than that, he did do Obamacare, but when you look at it in detail, it is not what he was selling originally and did a lot for big healthcare and big pharma. Obama had the other distinction of having gone after the values of the middle and working class with things like claiming they cling to their guns and God etc. He worked to make the values of college professors and coastal elites the values of the nation. He brought us “flyover country”.
Do I really need to mention Hillary Clinton and her “Deplorables” and promise to kill coal jobs etc?
In short, the democrats walked away from the middle and working classes for the financial elite.
These people needed to go somewhere. They have been taking over the republican party and the party elite did not see it coming.They are still in denial. I think it is why Romney retired.
Trump is the face of that change. He is. It is one reason I think that the powers that be will not be satisfied with keeping him out of office but have an overwhelming desire to destroy him personally. And THAT is why his base is so strong, so strong that he need do nothing at all to win the nomination. Each indictment, each attack by a court or the media, just makes that base more committed to him.
Honestly, I give him a 60/40 chance in the general election next year.
Republican voters I know want basic conservative ideas. Limited government, respect for individual rights ( such as the right to not take a vaccine.) They want common sense government, fix the roads instead of social engineering in schools and changing how humanity views gender.
But there are two big changes that have happened among tRepublican voters.
1. They dont care that much about abortion, at least in the first 3 months of pregnancy. They think abortion should be legal and easily accessible at least in the first trimester.
2. Republicans are now anti-war. Their sons and daughters join the military and they know how pointless the last 20 years of endless war has been.
The big defense companies give money to candidates on both sides, and thus the disconnect, especially on the right, between what voters think and what many of the candidates are saying.
Add to that state corporatism, especially ESG and the medical/ pharmaceutical industries. Top it off with state censorship and you have an excellent synopsis of the new Left/Progressives.
Prediction : he’ll get the nomination then lose in a landslide to Biden, who will die ten minutes before the polls close.
LMAO,… that is funny.
I will disagree though. I think that either Biden will hold out til next year and then lose to Trump (just too many things against Biden that he cannot undo in time) OR he will wait too long to decide to drop out, like after the convention in the spring, for anyone else to have the time to step up. Once the convention is over, if her were to drop out it would throw the entire democrat party into disarray, never mind the logistics nightmare of getting someone new on the ballots.
At that point, a 3rd party candidate, particularly if they are a former democrat, would have a reasonable chance, but I think Trump would still win.
Sadly, I wish moderators could control the microphones of the candidates. I would like to hear their proposals without the cut offs, talking over one another, and the insults.
Former President Trump was the first Republican candidate since Ronald Regan to connect to the working class. He offered a vision of how life could be better in the future for them. In 2016 Trump did the same. I thought Ron DeSantis would be Trump without the Trump baggage – which has been losing winnable elections since 2018 – but now no.
With Biden we get the people who control Biden, whoever they are. Will life for the average person be better off? No way.
We are still more than a year from the 2024 election. Let’s see what develops between now and then.
I don’t see why they don’t make that a rule. Your microphone is turned off as a default. It will be turned on when you are called on to speak. When the time is up, you will be cut off. Put the mic on a timer so there is no arguing.
Half that last GOP debate was unintelligible.
With national primary polls giving Trump a considerable lead, his rivals’ only hope of beating him is (pick one)
Trump goes to jail?
Trump is assassinated?
Trump retires from the field?
The question is whom Mr Trump will take as his running mate as that may well anoint a Republican President for 2028. Up until then, we and the world will just have to put up with Ms Harris as Supreme Commander of the Free World.
If Trump wins in Nov 24, or gets close, US staggers into a major Constitutional crisis as by then he either will be a convicted felon or will be about to be convicted and will need to prevent the rule of law being applied to himself. The whole scenario could not not be more perfect for Putin, Xi, Kim Wrong-Un et al.
But all that aside what his candidacy demonstrates yet again is the policy incoherence of this form of Right Wing Populism – a belief in the free market yet it’s going to intervene to ensure the masses get a fairer deal etc. It’s the same clash as here in the UK the Tories have with neo-liberalism vs levelling up. It’s why, as the Author states, Trump’s rhetoric on Obamacare stopped abruptly when he ran into the reality of what he was going actually proposing to replace the ACA with. Doh!
Of course Trump himself got absolutely no intention of doing much for anyone but himself. Boy can the Orange one ‘grift’. But it’s still got that ‘let’s elect the Dog to the student college presidency’ so we can stick it to the ;powers that be’. Until you actually ask the Dog to start governing it’s has some amusement value.
Trump had his chance and he blew it, royally. He barley even tried. But of course, Its no surprise there. What do expect from a wealthy uncouth insecure social climbing entitled New Yorker who got into ivy league do to his daddies money who suffers from daddy issues, who has chip on shoulder do to being that abrasive upstart from queens who desperately wants to accepted by elites in Manhattan. Trump problem is that he wants to loved, and thus looks for it in all the wrong places for it. I very disappointed by him, he had so many opportunities to enact lasting change and build a lasting legacy, and he threw them all way and wasted chances on seeking small petty fleeting glory. Instead of building a political machine based of support for his agenda that would allow him to achieve things, he built a mere vehicle for self-promotion. Instead of surrounding himself with competent people who could help him steer the ship of government and navigate political waters, he instead surrounded himself with grifters and parasites who got there do to flattering him, the result he was not able effetely lead. He also did not gain any real allies because his jealousy and paranoia would not allow him, thus he was left fighting alone. When it came to strategy, he did not choose his battles wisely, he chose fight, small, pointless personal fights out of spite, causing him to be distracted and overextended and wasting political capital. At heart of all these problem is his huge yet fragile ego that leads him to be manipulated, deceived and prone to making mistakes. He now nothing more then controlled opposition now, his role now being nothing more then a foil to the ones in power who play him like fiddle, and doesn’t no it and never will, what worse it that his fanatical followers are a gullible as him. Dose not matter if he wins or not, he is politically worthless do to self sabotage. Also, Nothing good ever comes out of new York, that place it rotten to core.
At this point, it does not matter.
He IS gonna be the republican nominee.
Biden has made a bunch of really bad decisions and implemented a bunch of policies that have infuriated the voters. He is also old and getting older faster to a point that it is now embaressing and one almost has to wonder if he has the capacity to handle the nuclear football. A year from now he is not going to be any better. He will not be able to avoid a debate unless Trump refuses to do one and he will not be able hide in the basement this time. Every event he does is another opportunity for him to look old, lost and not up to the job.
The democrats REALLY messed up putting him in in the first place. They have shot themselves in the foot with not having a real primary and putting up other candidates.
The media and the democrats had a chance to put Trump aside and face a DeSantis or a Haley etc. but they undermined them both early on thinking that Trump had NO chance with his indictments and they could start targeting the others. That was a bad bet.
Like it or not, Trump has a very very real chance of beating Biden next year, he probably has better than even odds at this point.
Even if he dose win against Biden, he is going to a lame duck from day one of his time back in office. He will fall back onto his old self-destructive habits. He will try to seek revenge but his attempts will be ineffectual, and his attempts will just make things worse for him and give his enemies plenty of fodder to work with. Trump always makes things easy for his enemies, he has no self-awareness and never learns from his mistakes. The guy is nothing more then a spoiler used by the elites on both sides of the isles as placeholder to prevent a competent, more capable populist from replacing him as well as make the populist look bad. Just like Biden was as he is were he is to prevent threats from coming to power from both the left and the right, with the benefit that he is very easy to control. I dare to think its a possibility that Trump would run a third party to prevent someone else from winning just out of spite and let the other side win. I think deep down, Trump may indeed hate the system as it is, but more out of wounded pride born out the belief he never was given his due or respect he deserves. Trump is a disaffected member of the elite acting of ambition and resentiment. Deep down I don’t think he wants to take it down because he is a product of the system and he dose not want to bite the hand that feeds him, he wants to be on top of it, not take it down and get accept by those who lead it. Biden is is some respects a similar to trump, he gives of that “Never given the respect or due, or taken seriously by the elite” vibe that trump give off. The difference is that Biden is to much of a coward, to dependent of the system to dare go against it, and craves recognition. But He hides that under passive aggression and flimsy faux folksy demeanor, and gives off that vibe now even when he is at the top. They are two sides of the same coin, delusional, vainglorious power players of dying, decaying system hungerly holding on to power as the world burns around them.
If you think that Trump will get elected just for the opportunity to go back to his old policies then you are missing the point.
He got elected in 2016 as the biggest FU ever sent to the DC establishment.
IF he wins again, yes, he will have to undo a lot of what Biden has done on energy and the border etc. Yes, he will have to deal with Ukraine and Russia. But, the main thrust, the main reason he gets elected, the average person is just infuriated with the power establishement in the US, whether that is Jamie Dimon, Biden, Romney and McConnel, the Fed, and they fear and distrust Big Tech, the media (when they are not just hating it) and the security state, FBI, CIA, DIA and NSA etc. Even more than in 2016, they want him to flush the swamp, burn it down if he has to. They want the power of the people who have made their lives harder stripped.
He may get the protest vote, and Biden may be unpopular to the extent that Trump may a win, but no fruit will be born from that. No mater what he dose, he wont to able to effect any lasting change. He lacks the temperament, talent, power base and allies, and most importantly organizational competence to do so(too impulsive and short sighted). Plus he alienates people very easiley due to his lack of social tact and makes bad mistakes do overconfidence which leads to wishful thinking(Useless Summit with Kim Jong Un). He is also a bad judge of character, as he choosing Dr. Oz and Herschel Walker(Trump is Obsessed with celebrities, they make him feel important) as congressional candidates, because they sad nice things to him, not because they could win enough votes. Another problem will be that he will only have four year to do anything and government moves slow, and will be even slower for him do to how much opposition he going to face in the form of sabotage and the GOP will be far from helpful in that regard. He also pushing 80, and that going to effect things do to health,(America is getting tired of old ,delusional, clueless boomers running everything). If he manages to achieve some things, those can also be undone by another Dem Admin. Don’t get me wrong, I hate the deep state as much as anyone that has brought this country so low and was once a strong supporter of Trump, but the last couple years have revealed his deep, devastating character flaws. Trump is great, tactician but a terrible strategist. He did a lot to expose how rotten the system is, but that was mostly by accident do to how the powers that be overreacted towards him and showed their hands. He was like a artillery shell, which dose lots of damage but once fired it cant come back and has ben expended, its a one and done deal. Hopefully once he has left the stage, more competent players can take up the mantle.
He has already made lasting change. You may not see it, but it is there if you are willing to look.
DC and the media will never be the same again
He did make a changes in that regard. But he wont be the one to see it all through, he like Moses in the the regard of his role(but lacking his character), he may have started long journey but will not be the one to finish it through to the end. He will also be like King Saul, the one who initiate the fight and make some headway, but his personal flaws prevent him from finishing the war, that will be King David job. The populist movement desperately needs a king David, not a King Saul.
I think you may be being a bit harsh. The problem is that while Trump new how to run his family business, running Government is a whole different story and he just didn’t realize the impediments that would be placed in his way. And that includes not just the Russian-collusion hoax, but the appointment of people to his cabinet whom he thought were like minded and good but were anything but (e.g. General Matthis, Tillerson, etc…)