October 11, 2023 - 7:00am
Received wisdom tells us that some time within the next 15 months we shall see Sir Keir Starmer addressing the nation from the steps of 10 Downing Street.
At its conference this week, Labour is certainly exuding the air of a party on its way to victory, and the glitter-flecked Sir Keir’s competent, if rather plodding and cliché-heavy, speech this afternoon will have served to reinforce that feeling.
But are things as nailed on as we are led to believe? I am not so sure.
For one thing, this does not feel like a 1997 moment. On that occasion, it was obvious in the months — indeed, years — leading up to the election that, barring a catastrophe, the Labour Party would win handsomely. Not only were the Tories widely loathed, but Labour itself enjoyed ample and genuine goodwill among that electoral coalition — its traditional working-class base combined with sufficient numbers of “aspirational” middle-class voters — whose support it must always command in order to win elections.
This time around, however, the deep animus towards the Tories does not seem to be matched by any special affection for Labour. Notably, while the Tories are haemorrhaging support among working-class voters who flocked to them in 2019, the evidence — such as that contained in a YouGov poll published only yesterday — suggests that these voters are in no great hurry to return to the Labour fold.
Speak to this cohort, especially those based in Red Wall constituencies, and you will find that hostility to Labour continues to run deep. The memories of the party’s betrayals over Brexit are still raw, and the belief that it cares more about the priorities of social activists and urban graduates than it does those of voters such as themselves remains hardwired.
While the party will rightly see its success at the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election as a sure sign of its recovery in Scotland, and thereby a boost to its prospects of forming a government at Westminster, it should not forget that there is most likely no path to power that does not pass through its old heartlands in the north and Midlands of England. It is here that Labour desperately needs to “seal the deal” with voters. And there isn’t any compelling evidence that it has yet done so.
Rishi Sunak’s recent shift on Net Zero will play well with hard-pressed working-class voters, as will his efforts to draw a clear dividing line with Labour over some of the more contentious cultural issues, such as the ongoing gender row. The lingering suspicion, too — heightened again as a result of comments by David Lammy earlier this week — that Labour would take the UK back into the EU if it gets half a chance remains an achilles heel for the party throughout blue-collar Britain.
Sir Keir’s speech to conference offered nothing to allay those fears. Neither — a real oversight, this — did it contain any pledge to get a grip on the UK’s out-of-control immigration system. In that sense, there was no red meat for the Red Wall.
If the inflation rate continues to fall, and if energy bills begin to do likewise, it is just possible that the Tories will stand at least a puncher’s chance of a victory at the next election. Or at the very least, prevent Labour from winning an overall majority.
The commentariat and bookmakers may think it’s all over. But it isn’t. And Labour would be foolish to think otherwise.
Paul Embery is a firefighter, trade union activist, pro-Brexit campaigner and ‘Blue Labour’ thinker
PaulEmbery
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SubscribeIt’s not just Labour which has betrayed it’s voter base over Brexit, and in many other areas. I’m an instinctive conservative, but I won’t be voting for the Tories at the next election. That said, the chances of me going anywhere near Labour are zero. And even the suggestion of me throwing my protest vote in the direction of the Lib-‘Layla Moran’-Dems is laughable.
No, I will be sitting the next one out. A pox on all their houses.
Well said. I suspect you speak for millions.
I think a lot of people are feeling this way. I’m no longer part of the British electorate, but if I was then I’d be sitting this one out too. Too profound is my disgust with all sides.
Spoilt ballot paper with “None of the above”.
Same here. I think this is the real point. Real Tories are going to stay at home this time round, so Labour will limp in on a low turnout and with very little enthusiasm. It will then enact the Blair Institute’s programme on migration, Europe, climate change, public services, relying on its “mandate”.
I totally understand the sentiments. The Fool Johnson boosted both socialism and the progressive cause and actually entrenched the powers and laws of the ruling Technocracy and New Order set up by Blair ABOVE any Executive – when it had to challenge it. But note how Labour are trying to sound like Tories – the flag, business, tough on crime. All hot air…but it tells us the majority are hostile to Labours true and dangerous self…vindictive class war, union power, anti meritocracy, green bollox, open borders. Labour are the dumb political Wing of our unelected nightmarish governing progressive Blob. Labour will founder of course as we are in a degrowth vetocracy and doom loop… but gerrymandering with EU voters and teens may make its punishment impossible in the 2030s. Rishi has just months to build the foundations of a proper Tory resistance to that Order and the dreadful Uniparty groupthinking of today. The battle cannot start in 6 years time. He must win Rwanda case in Supreme Court, purge the Wets and rekindle a genuine Conservative Party now. I fear we will become just like the stale Traumazoned Soviet Union in the 70s if the progressive revolution of the 90s is given another half decade to spread its poisons.
Yes, Jonathan: When it comes to voting, many people are opting out. The greatbritainpeoplesparty.co.uk will instill confidence and opportunity for all “open policymaking” and deliver what the people need; true democratic participation is the solution. Are we wasting too much time scrolling through social media in quest of knowledge and solutions when the solution is always right in front of us. “We, the people, are the solution.
You are valued, and you are worthy.
My spoil will read “Stop the globalist agenda”.
Well done! You’re a real difference maker!
If voting made any difference etc…
Change lies solely with the people.
The greatbritainpeoplesparty.co.uk ethos and essential beliefs are summarised in the two phrases “Trust and honesty.” The public wants trust, but Labour and the Tories are always battling for it. Even worse, they have grown resistant to the truth. The Party holds that the basis of a relationship with its people is trust.
I think the outcome of the next British general election will depend on Rwanda (which is a funny sentence to write). If the Supreme Court allows the scheme to go ahead and it is effective in stopping the boats (two massive “ifs”) then the Tories have a strong hand to play: Vote Labour and the boats come back!
I suspect that, along with the delaying of the net zero ICE and boiler bans and something – yet to be delivered – on Wokery in schools, will be enough to bring 2019 Conservative voters back on board when faced with the alternative: concreting over the Greenbelt to house immigrants, hiking private school fees, Just Stop Oil funding, pro-Woke policies on women, race etc etc.
But if the boats are still coming in their thousands next year, Sunak will have nowhere to hide.
I totally agree! Rishi has got to win this battle. As others note, his pushback against Net Zero is largely symbolic and weedy. The Net Zero Pol Pot virus – like its twin ESG in our financial system – is still fully hardwired into our economic nervous system and will flatten all growth. With illegal migration and border control, he needs a total victory. Then apply aensible curvs on the mad million plus surge in legal. Without it he will nothing substantial to bring the army of unhappy but anti progressive Tory voters back.
I personally think net zero is dead and buried. The technology to deliver it without a stomach-churning drop on the standard of living for the general public doesn’t exit. And therefore no government can deliver it and will be forced to miss the targets they have set themselves. That, of course, doesn’t mean a lot of economic damage can’t be done in the meantime.
I think the Tories are moving towards a recognition of this as seen in the Rosebank oil field decision, the ICE ban delay and the scrapping of HS2. I wouldn’t be surprised to seen fracking back in the manifesto as well as a statement on balancing energy security with “decarbonisation”, which will pave the way for the eventual dropping of the EV and heat pump mandates altogether.
As to legal immigration, I cannot believe that neither Sunak or Starmer addressed the issue. What is needed is a clear goal on numbers and skill profiles of immigrants – say 150k work visas p.a. to meet Shortage Occupation requirements. This should be tied into policies on education (to meet skill shortages from the native population), housing, benefits (to get long term unemployed back to work), trade and so on. And loopholes like “bogus” university courses offering an method to live here without a work visa need to be closed.
EVs and heat pumps just won’t work for most people even if they were affordable or, in the case of EVs, even safe.
Embery assumes that voters will be giving careful consideration to Sir Keir’s speeches, interviews and soundbites before deciding which way to vote at the next general election.
Even if they could be bothered to pay that much attention to Sir Keir or any of the other political windbags, once in power the winning party will assume they have been given a mandate to do as they see fit – and so on with the real agenda. Pursuit of praise from the MSM and achieving a sense of moral leadership in ‘the international community’ have become a priority.
Yes post election day the ‘people’ can just foxtrot oscar.
Really? It may have angered the eco-fanatics (a hyper-sensitive bunch) but looks more like a token gesture made with next year’s election in mind rather than a real pushback against Green lunacy. Voters may be impressed that the eco-cheerleaders in the MSM are outraged but this is no more than political theatre.
We need a serious investigation (that’s investigation not mere debate) into the validity of NetZero and all the other eco-fanatic claims with sceptics given a full hearing at last.
It’s simpler than political theatre. Normal folk resent being told they have to sell a car – that they were advised to buy – or be fined. These types of voters need to hear that the next government is not going to take them for granted.
The fact that the Tories now seem to have recognised this gives them a (35% ?) chance of winning the next election.
Sorting out Rwanda/ECHR could even get them over the line ..
The runaway NetZero train has been slowed down a little bit but it keeps rolling on.
Does it not occur to you that a new round of ‘Climate Emergency’ panic could see that feeble concession to sanity overturned following an election victory with only a slim majority? There are plenty of eco-dupes and cynical virtue-signallers in the Tory ranks.
Yes it did ‘“occur to me”. No need for you to add that phrasing to your comment. It adds nothing to the discussion.
This party is still dominated by Remainer ideology. Ms Reeves, for one, wants to keep a Labour government broadly aligned with the EU’s growth and stability guidelines so they can get the British economy ready for the euro.
Maybe Norman Lamont can advise her…
They would have to roll back all the recently signed trade agreements, how will that look if they have started to bring new benefits?
The situation in the UK is approaching that of Italy. There, all of the money is focussed on the North and there is a belief in the corridors of power that the South should be split off to manage for itself – to allow those in the North to get richer, of course.
In the UK, there is the South-East, with 16-20 million people, who believe that opportunity will come from Europe – just a short drive away – and that the rest of the UK will have to be sacrificed. Scotland, Wales and the North will have to survive on giveaways from the South.
The North, Scotland and Wales would be far too strong for the South IF they could be motivated to join forces. Labour could do this if they wanted. The end would be a more equal country with the South becoming much poorer – exactly the sort of equality which would appeal to Labour voters.
What is stopping this? The fact that MPs are based in London and get comfortable with the lifestyle. They become part of the problem.
Incoherent rambling
Yes, Lisa Nandy can sing “Common people” as much as she likes but all it does is prove Jarvis Cocker’s point.
I am surprised at your take on things Paul. Having just ploughed through Jamie Carraghers piece it seems to me like ‘Labour could be rubbish but look at the Tories’ is the view of the North and their voting will duly follow. I thought this was your position. I get the fact that the Red Wall has been massively let down, first by Labour then more recently by the Tories. Their choice (and in fact the choice of everyone really) is a terrible one. They are all awful. Simply believing that Rishi’s backsliding on green, woke and the rest is something other than a cynical play for votes that he really doesn’t much believe in, is sadly mistaken. God, this election feels simply awful. Perhaps the best way after all is to vote for the least worst, or how your parents voted, or whether you think the next PM will last longer than a lettuce (or any other salad vegetable of your choice). I cannot blame Blair any more for this, too long ago. Time for a long holiday…
“If inflation continues to fall …..”
It is hardwired in that it will. The October figures will not show much change, but the November ones will, simply because a 1.9% month on month rise in October 2022 will drop out of the calculation that is used, i.e. a 12 point moving average. This will produce a drop to around 5% meaning the “target” for the end of the year will be met.
Of course it won’t really mean anything has changed but given that very few people actually understand what the inflation figure really is means that the symbolism will completely obscure the reality.
Dream on, sunshine!
The Tories are going to be annihilated, and deservedly so.
It’s remarkable that given how uninspired Starmer is claimed to be – Left & Right criticism – how much it still looks like he may win. It is of course a particular testament to the foolish behaviour and beliefs of many on the Right – whether supporting clowns like Bojo & Mad Liz or fallacies like Brexit whilst never fully comprehending the contradiction between neo-liberalism and Levelling Up/ Little England.
And just perhaps Starmer offers a less histrionic, pleasant boredom we now desire after the chaos?
But I think Author correct too. It’s not done yet and Starmer seems to recognise that as well as anyone.