July 10, 2023 - 7:00am
Heads of state and senior ministers will descend on Lithuania’s capital Vilnius this week for a Nato summit heralded as a potential turning point for the alliance. It’s being seen as decisive for Ukraine’s Nato aspirations as debates rage over whether to offer Kyiv a clear timeframe and concrete pledge for membership.
As has been the case throughout the war, Nato is divided into hawkish countries including Britain and most Eastern European states calling for a clear signal on future Ukrainian membership, and countries such as Germany which stand accused of trying to “essentially block membership”. The Biden administration is somewhere in between, wary of its responsibility to keep up Ukrainian morale through the prospect of Nato membership but rejecting shortcuts to admittance.
Peek behind the bullish rhetoric, though, and there’s a broad consensus against rapid accession for Ukraine. Joe Biden on Sunday said Ukraine is not ready for Nato membership and that it would be “premature” to “bring Ukraine into the Nato family now, at this moment, in the middle of a war”. Meanwhile, Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský, a strong advocate for Ukrainian Nato membership, admitted to me in a recent interview that “Ukraine is not currently ready to be a full member of Nato. Even if all the allies wanted this, Ukraine is not technically ready.”
If even Kyiv’s closest allies are in agreement that the country is not ready to join, discussions in Vilnius will need to have the more abstract aim of fostering political will for Ukrainian membership at some vague future date. There’s an irony in the fact that while Western leaders unequivocally assert Ukraine’s right to self-determination, they themselves are the hesitant gatekeepers to the alliance it craves to join.
With Ukraine technically not ready to join Nato, and with the organisation having little interest in admitting Ukraine anytime soon even if that were possible given the ongoing war, there is only one conceivable shared aim for negotiations: a hazily defined prospect of future membership, to deter unspecified future Russian aggression, at some undefined point after an uncertain Ukrainian victory in the war. Plans must no doubt be laid in advance, but that’s a whole lot of “ifs”.
More worryingly still, that single aim — deterring renewed Russian aggression after a ceasefire — may actually be harmed by current negotiations over Nato membership. The prerequisite for preventing renewed aggression must, ipso facto, be a negotiated peace to end the current fighting — something Moscow will never countenance if it believes Ukraine will simply join Nato once a peace deal is signed.
Ukraine is understandably desperate to drive negotiations forward in Vilnius. But Nato talks won’t make a difference to events unfolding on the battlefield and, far from securing future peace, making vague plans for membership today is the single step most likely to turn the current conflict into a “forever war”.
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SubscribeNo it won’t. But it will endanger the world. We live in fragile times fuelled by hubris and ignorance.
No it won’t. But it will endanger the world. We live in fragile times fuelled by hubris and ignorance.
When the war ends, I bet one of the Russian terms imposed on whats left of the Ukraine, is that they agree to never join NATO and limit the size of their army
This war has been a total disaster for the Ukraine, the sooner it ends the better
The war won’t end until dopey Joe is out of the White House.
What’s “left” o Ukraine is about 90%–and expanding.
And wait till the cluster bombs have their effect.
BTW, it’s “Ukraine,” not “the Ukraine.”
Only ignorant Russians still say that. That’s why they fall from Thai temples, and get eaten by sharks.
Ukraine=borderland. The borderland,
Ukraine=borderland. The borderland,
The war won’t end until dopey Joe is out of the White House.
What’s “left” o Ukraine is about 90%–and expanding.
And wait till the cluster bombs have their effect.
BTW, it’s “Ukraine,” not “the Ukraine.”
Only ignorant Russians still say that. That’s why they fall from Thai temples, and get eaten by sharks.
When the war ends, I bet one of the Russian terms imposed on whats left of the Ukraine, is that they agree to never join NATO and limit the size of their army
This war has been a total disaster for the Ukraine, the sooner it ends the better
I believe there’s a clause where NATO can’t accept new members if the applicant state has border disputes with another state? If so, that kicks Ukraine’s application into the long grass until the war is over (assuming a treaty is signed). The best Ukraine will have to do is win back the territory Russia seized from 2014 onwards. However, that may not happen at all as the Russian military seems to have finally remembered what strategy and tactics are, going from Ukraine’s slow progress during its offensive.
This is about hurting Russia as much as possible. This is about making sure that Russia and by extension China is never in close partnership with any European nation. This is the antidote for the Belt and Road initiative extending into Europe.
With Ursula Von broomstick to probably be parachuted in as head of NATO next year the whole scenario is doomed.
The most incompetent politician in a generation at the helm – I wouldn’t want to be a Ukrainian in a uniform in 2024. Sleepy Joes follow up to the Afghan disaster awaits with Ursula at the podium. God knows where we will be then.
This is about hurting Russia as much as possible. This is about making sure that Russia and by extension China is never in close partnership with any European nation. This is the antidote for the Belt and Road initiative extending into Europe.
With Ursula Von broomstick to probably be parachuted in as head of NATO next year the whole scenario is doomed.
The most incompetent politician in a generation at the helm – I wouldn’t want to be a Ukrainian in a uniform in 2024. Sleepy Joes follow up to the Afghan disaster awaits with Ursula at the podium. God knows where we will be then.
I believe there’s a clause where NATO can’t accept new members if the applicant state has border disputes with another state? If so, that kicks Ukraine’s application into the long grass until the war is over (assuming a treaty is signed). The best Ukraine will have to do is win back the territory Russia seized from 2014 onwards. However, that may not happen at all as the Russian military seems to have finally remembered what strategy and tactics are, going from Ukraine’s slow progress during its offensive.
Meanwhile, back on Planet Earth…
Ukraine has solved the ammo shortage.
–The number of US cluster munitions is vast.
–Rheinmetall is producing huge quantities of 155 mm shells, enough for all of Ukraine’s needs.
So Putin’s “mobiks” will be under far worse artillery fire than Ukrainians have ever experienced. Moreover, there are still literally thousands of tanks held by NATO countries in storage.
If we do this right, we can eliminate a whole generation of Russian males, fundamentally changing the ethnic character of Russia for good. Central Asians will then migrate in to fill the gaps.
This will–finally–transform Russia into a still corrupt, but largely peaceful, Central Asian state.
The end of an 800-year nightmare…
Genocide. You’re pushing genocide.
Genocide. You’re pushing genocide.
Meanwhile, back on Planet Earth…
Ukraine has solved the ammo shortage.
–The number of US cluster munitions is vast.
–Rheinmetall is producing huge quantities of 155 mm shells, enough for all of Ukraine’s needs.
So Putin’s “mobiks” will be under far worse artillery fire than Ukrainians have ever experienced. Moreover, there are still literally thousands of tanks held by NATO countries in storage.
If we do this right, we can eliminate a whole generation of Russian males, fundamentally changing the ethnic character of Russia for good. Central Asians will then migrate in to fill the gaps.
This will–finally–transform Russia into a still corrupt, but largely peaceful, Central Asian state.
The end of an 800-year nightmare…
A specimen of pure delusion:
“The prerequisite for preventing renewed aggression must, ipso facto, be a negotiated peace to end the current fighting.”
A negotiated settlement in the context of anything less than a decisive Russian defeat will never end this conflict.
The author, like many “Realists,” seems totally ignorant of the basis of Putin’s power. He is not an 18th C. absolute monarch.
Putin, like Trump, must always be seen as a “winner.” And as long as he is in power (or even his close cronies), he can never accept a final settlement.
If Putin had ended the conflict in Donbas at anytime since 2014, he would rightly have been accused of expending vast amounts of Russian resources for negative gains.
So even if Putin kept all of his present conquests, a peace deal would expose the hollowness of his victory. The long term effects of a crippled Russian economy, and the loss of 250-500,000 Russian casualties would eventually force him out of office–and very possibly out of the world of the living.
To come to a final solution to end this war thus means the Final Solution for Putin.
Clueless “Realists” haven’t a clue about how and why Putin stays in power.
And rather obviously, are too lazy to learn.
A specimen of pure delusion:
“The prerequisite for preventing renewed aggression must, ipso facto, be a negotiated peace to end the current fighting.”
A negotiated settlement in the context of anything less than a decisive Russian defeat will never end this conflict.
The author, like many “Realists,” seems totally ignorant of the basis of Putin’s power. He is not an 18th C. absolute monarch.
Putin, like Trump, must always be seen as a “winner.” And as long as he is in power (or even his close cronies), he can never accept a final settlement.
If Putin had ended the conflict in Donbas at anytime since 2014, he would rightly have been accused of expending vast amounts of Russian resources for negative gains.
So even if Putin kept all of his present conquests, a peace deal would expose the hollowness of his victory. The long term effects of a crippled Russian economy, and the loss of 250-500,000 Russian casualties would eventually force him out of office–and very possibly out of the world of the living.
To come to a final solution to end this war thus means the Final Solution for Putin.
Clueless “Realists” haven’t a clue about how and why Putin stays in power.
And rather obviously, are too lazy to learn.