August 3, 2023 - 1:05pm
The Bank of England has decided to hike interest rates another 25bps. This brings the bank rate up to 5.25%, the highest rate seen in 15 years. The 25bps should come as no surprise, but it should not take away from the fact that this rate increase is the 14th consecutive increase we have seen in the past few months.
The Bank is being aggressive with its interest rate increases because it has no real choice. In June, the consumer price index registered a 7.9% change year-on-year. While this had fallen from 8.7% in May, the British inflation rate remains far above its peers. The Eurozone inflation rate in the same month was 5.5% while in the United States it was only 3%.
Nor are these abstract numbers. The cost-of-living crisis is the elephant in the room that the government does not want to recognise because it do not really know how to address it. Earlier this week it was reported that the number of British households missing essential bill payments had risen back to levels seen last winter. The government has been promising that energy bills would ease for some time, but we have yet to see it — and when they do ease, it will not be by much.
Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in February last year and the disruption to energy supplies due to sanctions and counter-sanctions, the economy has rocketed to being the most important issue for voters. Today 60% of people list it in their top three concerns with the next biggest concern, health, at 41% and immigration a close third at 35%. The day the war broke out in February of last year Labour had a 4 point lead over the Tories in the polls — today that lead is 23 points.
Yet if the government thinks that the Bank is going to save them, it has another thing coming. It is an open secret that, to get inflation under control, the Bank will likely have to keep hiking rates until the economy slips into recession. And while the incumbent government’s poll numbers can’t really get much worse, a recession is likely to be just as unpopular as inflation.
Where will that recession come from? Most likely the construction sector. Earlier this week Nationwide reported that house prices had fallen by 3.8%, the sharpest fall in 14 years. This is already feeding through into construction sector output, which has been falling since February of this year and as of May was just over 1.3% lower than its peak. At some point, this fall in construction output will feed through to construction employment and this will likely be what drags the economy into recession.
The Ukraine war and the resulting sanctions and counter-sanctions have wreaked havoc on the European economies. None have been worse hit than Britain, which was in a fragile position both from the point-of-view of its energy policy and its overreliance on imports and foreign capital flows. The Bank of England is now in the unenviable position of trying to put things back on an even keel but to do so it will likely need to create a recession. Looking at the data, that recession is already perceivable on the horizon.
Philip Pilkington is a macroeconomist and investment professional, and the author of The Reformation in Economics
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SubscribeIt is in the nature of the beast, that it always, always, overreacts. But you must forgive them, they cannot help their nature, because they are economists. Yes, either forgive them, or if feasible, put them all on a rocket to Mars with no fuel for a return.
Pulling on interest rates is like pulling on a large and heavy brick with a rubber-band. For a long time nothing at all seems to be happening, but the tension is ratcheting up. Then, just when all those economists at the BoE expect the brick to slowly start creeping towards them, it will instead zing through the air, and smash them on the head. And, having thus suffered concussion, they will of course promptly forget the results of their last actions, and so of course will repeat them.
Bravo!
Bravo!
It is in the nature of the beast, that it always, always, overreacts. But you must forgive them, they cannot help their nature, because they are economists. Yes, either forgive them, or if feasible, put them all on a rocket to Mars with no fuel for a return.
Pulling on interest rates is like pulling on a large and heavy brick with a rubber-band. For a long time nothing at all seems to be happening, but the tension is ratcheting up. Then, just when all those economists at the BoE expect the brick to slowly start creeping towards them, it will instead zing through the air, and smash them on the head. And, having thus suffered concussion, they will of course promptly forget the results of their last actions, and so of course will repeat them.
40 years of neglectful energy policy is coming home to roost. The UK should have more than enough coal, gas and oil to see them through the peaks and troughs of global energy prices, instead they farmed everything out to the markets for a short term hit
40 years of neglectful energy policy is coming home to roost. The UK should have more than enough coal, gas and oil to see them through the peaks and troughs of global energy prices, instead they farmed everything out to the markets for a short term hit
Raising interest rates again is precisely the wrong thing to do. Producer prices are already falling sharply across the globe and the impact will arrive with the consumer in 2-3 months.
Exactly. The effect of interest rate rises is felt in 12 to 18 months, at which point our problem is more likely to be deflationn and stagnation. Bailey does not seem to have much of a grip.
I’ve always wondered why instead of interest rates which predominantly hurt the young (either renters who will see their rent jacked up by an over leveraged landlord, or families who’ve had to take out a colossal mortgage to buy a family home), the government couldn’t instead have a seperate floating tax rate to combat inflation.
If inflation is caused by too much money in the system chasing too few good, then surely removing it via taxation would have the same effect as giving it to the banks?
The money raised could be put aside to pay for future pension and end of life costs, and at least thus way the pain is shared much more equally throughout society
If your currency wasn’t free floating then maybe (if you had politicians willing to take the flak), but central bankers are also battling other central banks and currency traders. Plus – get yourself out of your own mess kids, you’ll be better for it. Globalisation, free-market, liberalism, kind of stuff.
If your currency wasn’t free floating then maybe (if you had politicians willing to take the flak), but central bankers are also battling other central banks and currency traders. Plus – get yourself out of your own mess kids, you’ll be better for it. Globalisation, free-market, liberalism, kind of stuff.
But he has Bernanke advising him now so we”ll be ok
I’ve always wondered why instead of interest rates which predominantly hurt the young (either renters who will see their rent jacked up by an over leveraged landlord, or families who’ve had to take out a colossal mortgage to buy a family home), the government couldn’t instead have a seperate floating tax rate to combat inflation.
If inflation is caused by too much money in the system chasing too few good, then surely removing it via taxation would have the same effect as giving it to the banks?
The money raised could be put aside to pay for future pension and end of life costs, and at least thus way the pain is shared much more equally throughout society
But he has Bernanke advising him now so we”ll be ok
Exactly. The effect of interest rate rises is felt in 12 to 18 months, at which point our problem is more likely to be deflationn and stagnation. Bailey does not seem to have much of a grip.
Raising interest rates again is precisely the wrong thing to do. Producer prices are already falling sharply across the globe and the impact will arrive with the consumer in 2-3 months.
Up goes your mortgage, or your landlord’s mortgage. Up goes the rent or the mortgage on the shop where you and your landlord alike buy your food. And into recession we go, so that Rishi Sunak can claim to have beaten it in time for a General Election late next year. Via a deniable procedure that was put in place by the last Labour Government without a manifesto commitment. And backed to the hilt by an Official Opposition with no economic policy of its own.
Up goes your mortgage, or your landlord’s mortgage. Up goes the rent or the mortgage on the shop where you and your landlord alike buy your food. And into recession we go, so that Rishi Sunak can claim to have beaten it in time for a General Election late next year. Via a deniable procedure that was put in place by the last Labour Government without a manifesto commitment. And backed to the hilt by an Official Opposition with no economic policy of its own.
Often forgotten Govt has fiscal and other policy options it can use too. This idea it’s just BoE and their Interest rate policy available to tackle inflation and reduce demand in the economy a mythology conveniently promulgated.
As article notes whilst Ukraine War been a factor this Govt had put the UK economy into a v vulnerable, and in some instances ‘unique’’ position already. Blaming BoE a useful shield but 13years policy failure the real reason Uk position much worse than it should be.
Often forgotten Govt has fiscal and other policy options it can use too. This idea it’s just BoE and their Interest rate policy available to tackle inflation and reduce demand in the economy a mythology conveniently promulgated.
As article notes whilst Ukraine War been a factor this Govt had put the UK economy into a v vulnerable, and in some instances ‘unique’’ position already. Blaming BoE a useful shield but 13years policy failure the real reason Uk position much worse than it should be.
When the US Federal Reserve was originally constituted, there was a major Progressive push to put a representative from the trades, the unions, and farming on the Fed board. This was not included in the final law, either here on in England, and as a result the central banks of both countries have a myopic focus on high finance.
What the Progressives realized was something that ought to be obvious to everyone 100 years later: when the people running the currency are all bankers, they will tend to put the interest of bankers first.
The task of the Bank is very simple; to control inflation. That means stimulating demand when it is low by lowering interest rates, and choking off excess demand by raiding rates. There is a roughly 12 month lag on either measure, so a little planning is required. But it is absurdly simple to operate, albeit more tricky on precise timing.
The present board are academic economists and (a) have no commercial sense; and (b) are always trying to “improve” on simple tools. And they are left leaning. And Bailey is weak and not a leader. Result: disaster. Solution: sack the Governor and give a senior intelligent commercially banker free rein to reconstruct the board
The task of the Bank is very simple; to control inflation. That means stimulating demand when it is low by lowering interest rates, and choking off excess demand by raiding rates. There is a roughly 12 month lag on either measure, so a little planning is required. But it is absurdly simple to operate, albeit more tricky on precise timing.
The present board are academic economists and (a) have no commercial sense; and (b) are always trying to “improve” on simple tools. And they are left leaning. And Bailey is weak and not a leader. Result: disaster. Solution: sack the Governor and give a senior intelligent commercially banker free rein to reconstruct the board
When the US Federal Reserve was originally constituted, there was a major Progressive push to put a representative from the trades, the unions, and farming on the Fed board. This was not included in the final law, either here on in England, and as a result the central banks of both countries have a myopic focus on high finance.
What the Progressives realized was something that ought to be obvious to everyone 100 years later: when the people running the currency are all bankers, they will tend to put the interest of bankers first.
….another think coming, please.
Thank you! I was sitting here wondering if I’d been getting that wrong my entire life.
Thank you! I was sitting here wondering if I’d been getting that wrong my entire life.
….another think coming, please.
Globalism
Globalism
Doom loop. Caused in large part by idiotic, impossible energy and environmental policies. From Ukraine to Britain and everywhere in between, the EU “energy transition” has 2nd, 3rd, 4th order consequences that European electorates failed to understand (because they were obscured intentionally from them) during fat times that are now becoming evident.
Truly ironic that this idiocy actually caused the hard times EU now facing.
Germany loathe to learn the lesson. At 5:15 this a.m. Berlin time, RWE, Germany’s largest utility, lignite (dirtiest form of coal to combust for electricity generation) was source of 80.6% of RWE’s electricity generation.
Those interested in a new Substack devoted to this space, stop by and see us. Free subscription > https://envmental.substack.com/
Doom loop. Caused in large part by idiotic, impossible energy and environmental policies. From Ukraine to Britain and everywhere in between, the EU “energy transition” has 2nd, 3rd, 4th order consequences that European electorates failed to understand (because they were obscured intentionally from them) during fat times that are now becoming evident.
Truly ironic that this idiocy actually caused the hard times EU now facing.
Germany loathe to learn the lesson. At 5:15 this a.m. Berlin time, RWE, Germany’s largest utility, lignite (dirtiest form of coal to combust for electricity generation) was source of 80.6% of RWE’s electricity generation.
Those interested in a new Substack devoted to this space, stop by and see us. Free subscription > https://envmental.substack.com/
Most infamous chancellor and Banker in the history of banking sending people back 100 years into poverty G unt and baileys bandits
Same old empire .
Most infamous chancellor and Banker in the history of banking sending people back 100 years into poverty G unt and baileys bandits
Same old empire .