December 13, 2023 - 10:00am
Polls should always be taken with a grain of salt, but the numbers coming out of Germany suggest that the biggest Right-wing wave since the end of the Second World War could be emerging. What is brewing across the country is no longer the usual ebb and flow of electoral politics, but instead the prelude to a coming revolt at the voting booth.
There are several conditions that have laid the groundwork for an insurgent populist revolt. The German economy continues to shrink, and even the much hoped-for rebound in 2024 could turn out to be a disappointment, according to recent forecasts. Additionally, the education system just scored its worst results in the international PISA performance assessment, which is in part due to the disastrous immigration policies that have overwhelmed many schools with non-German speaking students. This has made the teaching of core materials increasingly challenging in a system that is already notoriously short on teachers.
Looming over all of this, however, is the growing fear of deindustrialisation: a word that strikes at the heart of German identity and traditional pride in being a nation of engineers. Taken together, then, it’s no wonder that German pessimism has reached its highest level since 1950. Within the EU, only the Bulgarians are gloomier about the future.
This dissatisfaction is making parties out of power ever more attractive: whether it is the traditional conservatives or the more hardline AfD, frustrated voters are moving to the Right. As an electoral district analysis for the June 2024 EU elections shows, Right-wing parties like the CDU and AfD are surging ahead. Meanwhile, the Greens currently stand at 12%, and their fellow coalition partners SPD and FDP are at 12% and 3% respectively. As for upcoming state elections next year, in all three states — Brandenburg, Thuringia, Saxonia — the AfD is predicted to become the strongest party.
Although new elections are not scheduled to take place before autumn 2025, if the general election were held now Scholz’s SPD would score a meagre 14% of the vote. Indeed, the Chancellor’s personal approval rating makes for especially grim reading: only one-fifth of the German public is satisfied with his performance, the lowest figure for a sitting chancellor since the poll’s beginning in 1997.
Things are going from bad to worse for the German government. Recently, the country’s constitutional court ruled against the coalition’s budget plans, placing an unexpected strain on the finances of the EU’s largest economy. Without the ability to finance future government handouts, several projects — ranging from climate to support for Ukraine — could be in jeopardy, creating additional easy targets for opposition parties.
Based on current trends, it is possible — even likely — that the Right will continue to surge. Germans are frustrated, and there are no signs that this is going to change anytime soon. If Olaf Scholz wants to turn things around, he will have to do so pretty quickly.
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SubscribeThose crazy Germans! Upset about having their economy torpedoed by skyrocketing energy prices, crippling climate zealotry, a pointless and destructive lockdown of their economy and eradication of their personal freedoms during Covid, and a mass migration policy that has destabilised their society.
How dare they vote for an Alternative.
And they are demeaned by calling them “populists”. When the left wins elections, do they ever say it was a populist revolt?
But credit where it’s due, at least we didn’t see “hard right” or “far right” anywhere in the article. This is real progress.
Sadiq Khan would hyperbolise them as being “extreme far right”
He hasn’t two brain cells to rub together.
For people intelligent enough to see which way the wind is blowing, it’s beginning to look like the populists might win, and so some of the more cautious are sensibly hedging their bets and preparing to live in a world where the globalist cabal might no longer be in charge. Journalists are people too, people who need jobs and have to maintain some level of credibility. Nobody wants to be the guy standing on the deck of a sinking ship declaring it unsinkable. Look up the headlines of the French state newspaper as Napoleon escaped his exile in Elba and got progressively closer to Paris. He’s described as a horrible monster at first and when he actually enters the city, he’s the glorious and exalted Emperor once again. How quickly the chameleon changes his colors to blend in with his surroundings. Survival instincts run deep.
When the people vote the way they are supposed to, we call it ‘democracy’. When they vote the way they are not supposed to, we call it ‘populism’.
Well said!
How dare they to hate Greta Thunberg!!!
Hating the goblin comes easy..
—
“See the little goblin, see her little feet
And her little nosey-wose, isn’t the goblin sweet?” (Blackadder, of course.)
Now you’ve done it – calling the blessed Greta a goblin – I can’t get the image, or the tune, out of my mind!
Marvellous!
‘Goblin’, nice.
But we’re all still virtue signalling at COP28 about saving the planet which will beggar all our populations.
My heating and food bills have doubled but fortunately I’ve got the money to pay for it all.
If this nonsense drives our economies into the ground, we’ll be in a civil war situation.
Yep, all of the over-60s will be rioting and pillaging.
The over 60s will become prey.
Hard not to feel a sense of schadenfreude
SCHADENFREUDE!
Who but The Hun could dream up such a lovely word?
There are a lot of great words in German. My other favourite is Zeitgeist. Well that and Doppelkupplungsgetriebe.
Does no one actually want to take issue?
I don’t know how it is in Germany, but in a lot of places, the over 60s (namely the Baby Boomers) have all the money.
True, because they’ve worked most of their lives. Don’t worry,by the time you’re 60, if you do the same, you’ll have people complaining that you have all the money
I am already 60 (and yes, they do).
Not this one.
Not rioting or pillaging. That’s for emotionally incontinent infants. We mature, experienced adults plan accordingly and train at the range.
I assume you mean the Driving Range,
Yep. Being able to par a hole will be a worthwhile talent no matter what happens to the world.
Given the relative mental fragility I regularly observe in the younger generations, I think I’d bet on the geezers.
Based on what I read around here, the younger generation are miles ahead of the geriatrics who spew their bile out about every minor issue that has zero impact on them, the trans issue being the obvious example.
The old folks won’t last long if it comes to violence..
Zero impact? Rather a narcissistic view, don’t you think, considering the older generation care a great deal about their grandchildren. What’s all this about “geriatrics spewing bile”? Pot meets kettle.
But the grandchildren of those bigots despise their grandparents – and rightly so.
Have you ever heard the average teen talk about the trans issue? I can guarantee they’re not all “allies”.
I’ve got it your Rolf Harris.
I claim my £5
Not too worried, AssPain Bolshevist. You Gen Zers are the weakest bunch of crybabies in history. When the shit hits the fan, you sorry wimps won’t stand a chance.
Thanks for the vote of confidence.
The younger generation will become very upset, if you take away their mobiles and most of their clothes (no more Premark) . Once they don‘t live with parents anymore and they’ll feel the pain of having to pay their energy, clothes and food bills..
There was a very entertaining Congressional Hearing of a young woman the other day, she was part of an environmental group demanding the phasing out of oil. Her interlocutor made mincemeat out of her, inquiring about the materials of her glasses, soles of her shoes, clothes, water bottle and iPhone. She squirmed in her seat and could only manage an embarrassed smile.
Yes, you meet this all the time. I have had a similar chat with my granddaughter but she just changes the subject. The problem with all of these things is that we old people are seen as the enemies of society, stopping progress. The view is that if we just disappear progress will happen – just because we want it to happen.
Love it, wish I’d seen it.
Can anyone point to wonderful examples of mass immigration (let alone from conflicting cultures) that led to eternal bliss for both the newcomers and the natives?
It worked very well for the U.S. about 100 years ago, but that was when virtually every immigrant was legal, accounted for and underwent a protocol of learning the history and language. Too many of today’s immigrants arrive illegally, have little desire to learn the host country language or adopt its culture, especially ones from the middle East, who want to transform the host country from within.
The immigrants to the US for the past few decades from Central and South America have generally been motivated, working, family oriented, starting businesses. They voted some years ago against California progressives wanting to teach their kids only Spanish.
The new wave coming now, I got lot of questions about.
As an American, I have to agree. We need an exchange program: bring in more socialism fleeing latinos and latinas, who appreciate the freedoms we are so fortunate to have here, and ship the spoiled rich kid pseudo Marxist jackasses to proletarian paradises such as Cuba and Venezuela. ¡Viva la revolución!
Di d you ever hear about the genocide of Native Americans ?
There wasn’t much genocide actually. I’ll grant the motivation was certainly there and individual incidences did indeed occur, but there wasn’t a lot to destroy. Smallpox had already done most of the work on a population that was still basically at Stone Age levels of technology and population. There was certainly injustice, but it mostly took the form of land grabs by European colonists who, in addition to and because of their higher level of civilization and the aforementioned introduction of European illnesses, vastly outnumbered the natives, at first in terms of population density and later also in absolute terms. There simply was never going to be any other result. It would be like if a civilization of aliens showed up in a starship with several times as many inhabitants as there are people on planet Earth. They could do basically whatever they want whenever and however they wanted.
Given the high crime rates in America relative to almost everywhere else both then and now, I don’t think I’d be quite so confident as to say it worked ‘very well’. I think I’d say it wasn’t damaging enough to offset the huge advantages America enjoyed in having half a continent worth of untapped natural resources, vast amounts of arable land, a continuous supply of cheap yet highly motivated labor, plus a set of rival great powers across the sea who inexplicably decided to destroy each other for no particular reason. The winners wrote the history so it looks like immigration, multiculturalism, and diversity are great advantages. We’re only starting to learn how stupid this is. It will be several decades or even centuries before there’s a halfway logical mostly unbiased account of the events of the 20th century and a full reckoning of The US’s mostly accidental success.
Years ago a friend who emigrated to the US from Romania and got a Phd and worked for AT&T taught me, always look at what part of the deck immigrants are from: Vietnamese doctors and professors coming into the US vs Castro emptying his jails and the “political refugees” becoming the new repeat offenders for assault and rape in Miami.
And the first set of immigrants from Castro’s Cuba—refugees really—are the high achievers who are today the pillars of Miami society (and who have kept it Republican). The Cuban criminal immigrants you refer to are the second wave. There are immigrants and there are immigrants.
I suspect the swing is not to the ‘Right-wing’ but away from the Establishment and Government that continues to disappoint.
That the Establishment is predominantly Left-Wing sets the direction of travel and not (necessarily) the destination. But it would be an enormous task to stop the swing mid way.
Kinda depends on what you define as “right wing” too.
Quite right. In England we have an allegedly right wing government that enacts left wing policies or fails to effect any right wing ones and are consequently on a flight path to electoral wipe out – ironically to an even more left wing one – although they are currently providing right wing mood music to cement their victory.
By the time the 2025 elections come around the matters that are concerning German voters now will be significantly worse-de industrialisation has a momentum that is difficult to stop and with the current green directed energy policies will probably accelerate.Germany’s main export markets are reducing demand for German products- particularly China and USA The immigration issue will not be dealt with ,or at least to the satisfaction of the voting public -no doubt there will be lot of hot air and rhetoric but no practical policies.
This is a scenario that is currently or will be played out in a number of Western Democracies and the inevitable result will be a switch of allegiance to any party that more closely reflects the concerns of the voting public-if you care to characterise that as “right wing” or “populist” then fine but thats how democracy works.
“Within the EU, only the Bulgarians are gloomier about the future.”
This isn’t really surprising though, the Germans aren’t known for their optimism. I read an interview with former Chancellor Helmut Schmidt a couple of years before he died where he was asked what he would say to the German people as a kind of final wish. He said “I would hope that they would not be so fearful about everything.” At that time, Germany was still bang in the middle of its cheap-gas, calm-geopolitics golden phase.
That said, I’m currently far more worried about Germany than I am about the UK. So much stuff is coming together at the moment, like a perfect storm. And they do not have good leadership. Things will come to a head – but I am still not sure how well the AfD will do at the next federal election. Sahra Wagenknecht’s new grouping is likely to feed off the same pool of voters as the AfD so it could split the vote.
The FDP will die a death, the Greens will still get into parliament but their support will collapse and the SPD will suffer (and quite rightly, they are useless).
It’s a familiar story all over Europe, including the UK. The mention of “right wing” is meaningless. What electorates are doing in their droves, are turning away from establishments, they’re not turning to anything in particular, except anything that promises not to be the status quo. In this country this has resulted in the utter farce of a Conservative government campaigning as the “party of change” (from itself).
This will probably result in a Labour government which will supposedly be to the “left” of the current government. I think that is entirely debateable frankly. I think that Starmer might be fiscally similar to the Conservatives, and socially, perhaps a little to the right. We’ll see.
But one thing seems very likely. If and when Starmer disappoints, following the Conservative Betrayal, we’ll then see electoral fireworks here, too. And who knows? If enough people are already fed-up enough already here, we might see those UK fireworks next year.
Good point. “Right wing” means anyone who wants to stop massive immigration of people who are fine with violent crime, actively resist assimiation to the point that they deny the country’s legal system and try to institute Sharia as law. Remember the Home Secretary who was shouted down by a crowd telling him he had no authority over them?
After the Covid lockdowns led to high inflation, almost every government in power at the time has since been voted out or looks likely to. NZ went from left to right, Aussie went right to left. Britain looks like going right to left, America looking likely to go left to right. Much of Europe is swinging from one side to the other.
Irrespective of domestic issues I think it’s simply the high inflation that causes most discontent, once people see their wages not going as far as they once did they vote for change. We’re in danger of overthinking politics sometimes
“Wir schaffen das”
Eine Schnappsidee?
Good.
It is becoming increasingly apparent that Merkel was a Stasi plant.
Certainly a vegetable of some sort – poison ivy? Venus fly-trap? Giant hogweed? (would being a hogweed translate as a Schweinunkraut? Or merely a Schwein Kraut?)
If you ask me, that Putin stooge Gerhard Schroeder was the real problem.
It’s still okay they spit you in your face if you act in accordance with the mantras coming from the academic bubble.
It will be worse when, having heard this mantra, they hit you in the face
The heading says “unstoppable”, the text says “possible, even likely”. Click bait.
The question is what will right wing alternative parties do when they inevitably get into power (D Tusk exempted)
Like Sweden they will make noises about wanting to repatriate many recent arrivals.
No doubt any moves like this will be deemed illegal. Under PR the greens and Left / centrist parties gang up against them anyway.
However such moved may have majority support certainly in some areas.
Left also see recent migrants as their constituents.
Might big row looming if you ask me.
Finally, they’re seeing sense.
This is typical UnHerd wishful thinking. Could there be anyone else suffering like us?
The Guardian?
I would like to see the new party led by Sarah Wagenknecht provide a real alternative, for the German working class, to the ruinous establishment parties on one hand, and to the fascistic AFD on the other.
Sahra, wiv an h.
In what sense are the AfD fascist? Do they have black shirted street fighters battling other left wing party street fighters? Do they intend to pursue a state corporatist economic strategy? Do they want to build up the Germany army for a drang nach osten in search of lebensraum for the German farmers? Do they want a Judenrein Germany?
The AfD is fascist in the same way as Labour in the UK is Marxist. It is using emotive names to attack the opponent.