October 9, 2023 - 9:35am
People often ask why Germany’s far-Right party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is doing so well in the territories that were once East Germany. It is tempting to write off their upward trajectory as a regional phenomenon because it allows Berlin to continue business as usual. Yet, while the AfD is undeniably more popular in the east, disaffection with the status quo is widespread across Germany. Yesterday’s elections in two of the country’s most populous states demonstrated this once again.
On Sunday, Bavaria and Hesse — two large and wealthy states in what was once West Germany — went to the polls to vote for new state parliaments. In both, the AfD made significant gains, becoming the second largest party in Hesse and the third largest in Bavaria. In both, it was able to draw voters from all other parties, including those currently in government in Berlin: the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the Free Liberals (FDP).
For the time being, the AfD can and will be kept out of power, regardless of its electoral surge. In both Bavaria and Hesse, the other parties have ruled out forming a coalition with it and will make attempts to form a majority in some other way. But they should understand this as an emergency break rather than a quick fix; as buying time while they work out answers to the questions that concern people.
One of the biggest issues is Germany’s unbalanced political offering. On the progressive side of the spectrum, voters can choose between different political parties. But on the conservative end, Angela Merkel’s long chancellorship has created a vacuum. Following her leadership, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has shifted further towards the centre, leaving its voters no choice but to follow or switch to the far-Right AfD.
The elections in Bavaria and Hesse, both states with many socially conservative voters, seem to indicate that there is a desire to restore centre-right options. In Bavaria, the CDU’s sister party CSU once dominated. Between 1970 and 2003, it ran the state with an absolute majority despite a system of proportional representation. Since then, it’s lost its profile in the eyes of many Bavarians. Yesterday, it still won the election but received its worst result since 1950, while haemorrhaging voters to the AfD and the conservative Free Voters party.
In Hesse, the CDU also won — and actually managed to increase its support — but the AfD received over 18% of votes and it won’t be easy to form a coalition that keeps it in opposition. Flinging a group of parties together that can’t agree to pass legislation is likely to confirm perceptions of a disunited political mainstream without clarity of vision or sense of purpose.
A representative survey taken shortly before the elections in Bavaria and Hesse indicated that local issues didn’t play a vital role in either state. Three-quarters of respondents said they were worried about big issues such as the bleak economic situation and the rising numbers of refugees. That’s not to mention a federal government led by a chancellor who comes across as sluggish and reluctant in the face of the problems Germany is facing.
The next German federal election may only be in 2025, but the established parties should act now, coming up with viable strategies to address concerns and communicate plans better to the public. Sunday’s state elections were a clear sign that trust has broken down between them and big sections of the electorate. Two years may not be enough to fix that, but it’s plenty of time to make a start.
Katja Hoyer is a German-British historian and writer. She is the author, most recently, of Beyond the Wall: East Germany, 1949-1990.
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SubscribePlease dont call the illegal migrants refugees!
You mean invaders
It is not that hard to figure out what to do, the problem is the elites do not want to hear it.
Scrap net zero. Push for domestic energy production of any kind. Sure, drive toward nuclear fusion, hydrogen, even electrification where safe and appropriate, but get over your fake climate crisis panic and get the economy back on track.
Start getting rid of the refugees and do not take any more until you figure out how to integrate them and how they are gonna fit into the economy. Form an army of background investigators and immigration officials if you need to but start cleaning house. The current policy is a disaster economically, socially and in terms of security and safety.
Work with the rest of the west to develop an economic strategy that will curb the growth of Chinese influence. Workers in modern democracies cannot compete with slave labor. Businesses cannot compete with companies that have access to cheap energy from coal or that are subsidized by the government and have access to extraordinarily cheap labor, and have little or no concern for their environmental impact.
Rebuild the military and rebuild the relationships with the US and Great Britain and stop trying to be a counterweight. The fact is we are entering a multipolar age, you gotta pick which bully you want to be paired with, China, Russia, India or the US. The first 3 all want to suck you dry. The fourth is a pain in the butt but at least, in general, shares your world view.
Excellent comment.
“It is not that hard to figure out what to do, the problem is the elites do not want to hear it.”
That’s the core of the problem throughout the West right now.
You are right, the problem is though, the longer the elites keep ignoring the concerns of the general population, the more they will push the electorate into the arms of those with more extreme politics, and the government of western countries will be more fractured.
There’s much commentary these days about “why have the people lost faith in our institutions?” or “why do those without degrees have so little faith in the experts?” or “why does society have such disrespect for the elites?”
The answer is: “It’s obvious! Just look at the institutions, the experts and the elites. They no longer deserve our respect!”
You don’t need a degree to figure it out.
Some observations after watching the post-mortem of these elections on the German news last night:
I’m still very surprised at how much support the AfD got from disgruntled SPD and Green voters. Wasn’t expecting that, I thought Union voters would be the majority of the “Wanderwähler”
Watching Interior Minister Nancy Faeser trying to be positive about her own dismal results in the Hesse election and avoid making any comment about what that meant for the federal government was funny and tragic in equal measure. This woman really does take the image of the out-of-touch, “ivory tower” politician to another level. I feel very sorry for Germans to have to live under a government with her in it. And I say this as someone who lives in a land that churns out abysmal politicians as if on a conveyor belt.
On a separate but related note: I watched an interview with Olaf Scholz last week on a channel called “Hotel Matze”. The interview was an hour long: I got through only 25 minutes before I had to turn it off. What a creepy, smarmy little gnome that man is. No straight answers, sometimes really quite abrupt and rude in his manner, evasive…and incredibly fidgety – constantly tugging at his clothing or generally looking tense and uncomfortable. You can say what you want about Merkel, but she always exuded solidity and calm and this is so important for a political leader. Scholz is not leadership material in any way – he’s thoroughly unlikeable.
Ivory tower is very much correct these days. The West has seriously lost its way because those in the ivory towers. Be it the politicians, the media, or the bureaucrats. They have all forgotten that we live in a democracy and that the will of the people decides the future direction of the country.
Here in Australia, we have a referendum coming up on Saturday. It is for “The Voice”. Which is basically if a lobby group had their own chamber of parliament that could not yet pass laws. Honestly, this is a guess because the odd thing is that there are virtually no hard details on exactly what this voice will be. But our politicians and celebrities are berating anyone who votes no as racist and anyone who is unsure, as lazy and/or stupid.
It does not surprise me at all that the AfD has increasing support. Good luck to them. They are not as far right as the media portrays.
I voted against PR in the previous referendum because of the messiness of coalition forming. But when I look at the choice here now between the usual suspects, I’m beginning to revise my opinion and to think that at least it allows newer parties to emerge.
You’re in good.company. Lorrd Sumption.and John Gray have concluded likewise. We simply have to break up the uniparty.
It can appear tempting. But look at poor Israel & the rise of Ultra Orthodox parties. No one really assesses the Coalition experience here. Its always ’13 years of Tory rule’. But surely one of the key reasons why the Wet Cameroonian Tories became full fat Woke Fake Tories and seemingly embraced the Progressive agenda lies in that Coalition experience.
Merkel‘s CDU didn’t move to the middle, but to the left. Her open door policy in 2015 and the Green “Energie Wende” initiated the problems Germany is facing now. The CDU’s sister party, CSU in Bavaria, tried to resist for a while, but then the astute politician Merkel made the former leader of the CSU her Minister for the Interior and any resistance vanished. Now the CSU had the worst result since 1950 and two right wing parties combine over 30% of the votes.
I don’t believe people are moving to the Right sur le Continent any more than they are moving to the Left in Britain. Across the Western world, people are just fed up with the ghastly incumbents. It’s as simple as that.
…in fairness, they are addressing voter anxieties…by telling them to sit down, shut up, and do as they are told! Pretty much as mainstream parties right across the West are inclined to do…even here, and even after the unwelcome shock of the Brexit vote. It can’t end well for any of them…but to paraphrase Adam Smith…”there is a great deal of ruin in a broken political consensus, and a failed political class”.
It may take some time, but at 66 I remain optimistic that I may still live to see real change. Mind you, my family mostly get to ninety…so it may be a while yet…
The subtitle here is “Establishment parties are not addressing voter anxieties”.
It’s not about voter “anxieties”; it’s about voter interests and concerns. The SPD simply ignores the voters. The Greens’ lead politicians openly say that they don’t care what the people want (though Habeck may be going through a Damascene Conversion). The FDP has abandoned its principles. The only reason they are getting any votes at all is voter tribalism.
AfD is winning by default, not because its programme is so attractive.
I continue to be amazed at how the discussion of what is going on politically across almost all western democracies is conducted in terms of left and right, or more usually far left and right.
That old model demonstrably doesn’t capture what is going on as well as David Goodhart’s ‘Anywheres and Somewheres’ idea.
The evaporation of Labour support in Scotland (and now it’s return), amazing site of the Red Wall collapsing (and now a very wary and conditional return, perhaps), The Dutch Farmers Party, AfD, Sweden, Le Pen are all understandable in terms of that conflict between ordinary people and common-sense, and the often tortuously contrived justifications of those who believe nation states are flawed and the future lies in technocratic or bureaucratic trans national organisations.
The current hot buton topics of GRR in Scotland, or BLM and Just Stop Oil antifa extremists, who are more facist than anything else, don’t fit any sort of traditional Left/Right framing-they don’t make sense in it.
They do fit Goodhart’s rearrangement however.