February 18, 2024 - 8:00am
Glasgow
The politics of Gaza continue to cause difficulties for Labour. In Glasgow, where a large pro-Palestine protest march marched through the drizzle on Saturday, delegates at the party’s Scottish conference supported a motion demanding an “immediate ceasefire”.
Yet Sir Keir Starmer, who speaks at the conference today, is so far declining to follow suit. The ever-opportunistic SNP is exploiting the difference, calling on the party’s two Scottish MPs to back Anas Sarwar over Starmer. The Nationalists see it as a win-win: either Starmer backs down and supports their own position or he declines, and thereby highlights Labour’s divisions.
It may be a sign of things to come. If Starmer is indeed elected as prime minister in the coming months, the relationship between the UK party and the Scottish one will face many other flashpoints. Leaving aside foreign policy and Gaza, we can safely predict that on everything from fiscal policy to oil and gas, tax breaks to Brexit, and to the powers of the devolved administrations, the SNP will be ready and waiting to tease out any differences that exist between Labour in London and Edinburgh.
With the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections fast approaching, Nationalist strategists have already begun war-gaming the new political battlefield. They reckon Starmer won’t deliver much for Scotland. They think they can portray Scottish Labour as ineffectual at “standing up for Scotland”. If they can get this narrative running, they believe there’s every chance that — despite its dire record in government — the SNP could still come out on top in 2026.
On one level, then, the division within Labour over Gaza is both paper-thin and meaningless — what Scottish Labour thinks about Gaza is hardly going to alter the unfolding tragedy in the Middle East. But it matters a great deal to the future of the UK. Managing the London-Edinburgh relationship will be vital to Starmer and Sarwar’s political prospects in the run up to 2026. It will be central to Labour’s chances of beating the SNP. This is, therefore, a matter of concern for all Unionists: for if the SNP were to get back in, expect the “IndyRef2” drums to once again start beating.
Sarwar understands all this. In a pre-conference interview with the New Statesman, he noted: “I want and need to be going into a 2026 election in the midterm of a popular Labour government, not an unpopular one.” He is well aware that his fate in 2026 will be tied inextricably with how a Starmer administration delivers for Scotland in its first few months. This weekend he was keen to play down the differences between him and Starmer over Gaza: he knows not to add meat to the SNP’s case.
What Sarwar now needs is for Starmer to set out the quick wins that a Labour government would deliver in Scotland before May 2026. A Starmer administration needs to provide tangible evidence that Labour is delivering on its promises to Scotland, and quickly. It must also show that the Labour leader wants to work with the Scottish Government — of whatever colour — on key policy areas, and not just sidestep around it.
In short, if Labour wins the coming general election — and wants to see off the SNP in 2026 — it will need to demonstrate in hour one, day one, week one and month one that it is delivering on the change it is promising. If Starmer wants to go down as a prime minister who both beat the SNP and strengthened the UK, he needs to begin by showing he’s prepared to devote the political capital required.
Eddie Barnes is a columnist for the Scottish Daily Mail and director of the Our Scottish Future think tank.
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Subscribe“delegates at the party’s Scottish conference supported a motion demanding an “immediate ceasefire”.”
The inverted commas should be around “demanding”. That is such a ludicrous word in this context. Like a demonstration in Pakistan “demanding” that Britain did this or that.
This is such a pointless conversation given that we have zero input on the matter.
And anyway, what is Starmer suppose to deliver for Scotland that is not being delivered now? Yet more devolution? God forbid! Have men change into women? Wouldn’t that be good!
If all the change is just delivering nonsense about Gaza what is *really* the change promised/required?
My personal wish would be the delivery a referendum on binning that wretched ‘parliament’ at Holyrood along with all the Toy Town third rate grifters that go with it.
One can but dream…
Any ideas what Labour as the UK government could do for Scotland with the SNP in charge in Holyrood?
Other than more money of course?
Westminster has little input into the day to day car crash of the SNP management of Scotland.
I agree with the prescription: the Labour government, any incoming UK government, has to invest political capital in engaging with Scotland and has to deliver and be seen to deliver.
But how can any UK government reap political benefits from even the sincerest effort to work with an SNP administration that is adept at turning every overture into a snub. Whatever else you might criticize them for the nationalists are masters of the narrative and of news management.
When the UK government increased funding to Scotland after COVID, the SNP portrayed this as a cut in funding. It did this by treating the previous year’s supplemental COVID-related funding as if it had been a normal part of the budget. This should have been transparent. But the nationalists had quite a bit of success in dominating the narrative using this sleight of hand.
Given this operating mode, a new UK government, presumably a Labour one, would have to be not only sincere in wanting to work with Bute House but also agile in its footwork, so that it can stay one step ahead of the nationalists while avoiding the traps they are setting for it.
Is Starmer’s outfit up to the job? It’s going to need to work very closely with the Scottish Labour Party and with Scottish civil society, if it wants to pull it off.
For the second time, we must depend on the SNP to divide the House of Commons on a ceasefire in Gaza. So be it. Is that party being opportunistic, seeking to embarrass Keir Starmer? That’s politics. Starmer richly deserves to be embarrassed, and could not be if he did not.
Spot on David. The article headline is an typical SNP bad line, suggesting they are opportunistic. Patronising nonsense. The labour party don’t want to deviate in any meaningful way on a whole range of issues, both domestic and foreign, from their main competitor, the conservative party. . The SNP despite challenges are streets ahead in both policy and action, whether it is social justice, education, social care and democratic reform. Witness for example the Scottish Child payment of £25 per family per child for low income families. Where is the labour version in England. Disnae exist! says it all.
Dear me… comments like this needs to be read to believe they exist.
At SNP central they are always busy at work, but don’t make it SO transparent, though.
I carry no candle either for the Labour Party or for the SNP, but the latter is at least proving useful on this issue.
I confess that the pro-hamas protests are making me more open to far right politics. When the mainstream parties tolerate such open barbarism it makes me lose faith that they will do anything to suppress these groups.
@James – I think you’re probably pushing at an open door there – your pro-Netanyahu comment certainly suggests as much. How Barbaric is it to open fire with tank shell & connon fire on your own civilians to kill them rather than have them taken hostage is it do you think?
Look at the photo. They are not your own civilians, stupid
I’ve got any idea: why can’t we in England vote for independence from Scotland? Another option is that we keep Gibraltar and in exchange give Scotland to Spain. Problem sorted!
I’ll be voting Labour this year solely to get SNP out in Midlothian. I fear this article is on the money. The only skill the SNP have, and they sure do, is clever messaging. High-viz is good. Patient long term government has no backers. If Starmer could ensure we get a quick effective ferry service to the islands, now that might be high viz. on the other hand if the SNP thought it was important they might have actually done it. But it’s worth a try. And, by the way, the islanders need it.