July 31, 2023 - 12:00pm
A glance across Monday morning’s UK papers might give a somewhat unclear impression of how the war in Ukraine is going. The Financial Times suggests that Vladimir Putin is cranking up his military effort, while Metro’s front page booms out, in vivid block caps, “Putin peace bombshell”. Meanwhile, the Telegraph details Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s intentions to further bring the war to Russia, following a drone attack on a well-heeled Moscow neighbourhood.
The noises coming from the Kremlin are hardly any more straightforward. Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president and now Deputy Secretary of the Security Council, said on Sunday that, should the Ukrainian counteroffensive be successful, Russia “would have to use nuclear weapons”.
Medvedev tends to look to the country’s nuclear arsenal when he feels threatened. In April of last year, he warned of Russian nuclear expansion in the Baltic region in the event of Finland and Sweden joining Nato; in March, he threatened nuclear strikes against Germany if it were to implement the ICC arrest warrant issued against Putin. Just this month, Medvedev took to social media to insist that Russia could end the war “by adopting measures similar to what the Americans did in 1945 when they deployed nuclear weapons”.
As such, given his history of empty nuclear threats, Medvedev’s comments are apparently unsurprising. However, what is perhaps more unexpected is the anxiety they reveal from a senior Russian official regarding Ukraine’s ongoing counterattack. Discussing the circumstances under which Russia would implement its nuclear doctrine, Medvedev imagined doing so if the Ukrainian offensive “succeeded and they seized part of our land”, a significant admission from a Kremlin insider that such an eventuality could possibly occur.
He is not the only one betraying signs of nervousness. On 23 July, Putin condemned Ukraine’s counteroffensive as having “failed”, and last week he claimed that “all counteroffensive attempts were stopped and the enemy was pushed back with high casualties”. However, he also admitted at the same time that “in recent days… hostilities have intensified, and significantly too”. Speaking on Sunday after the Russia-Africa summit in St Petersburg, Putin stressed that he does not reject the idea of peace talks, but said that the Ukrainian army is currently “implementing a large-scale strategic offensive”.
Events on the ground suggest that the Russian leadership has reason to be concerned. On Thursday, Ukrainian forces liberated the village of Staromaiorske in the occupied Donetsk region, with Zelenskyy reporting “very good results” at the front. Russian military blogger WarGonzo expressed anxiety about the capture of the village, given its key strategic position as an outpost on the Russian frontline.
Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War noted that, on 26 July, Ukrainian forces launched a significant counteroffensive operation in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast involving an “intense frontal assault” towards the village of Robotyne, breaking through Russian defensive positions north east of the settlement. Ukrainian forces also claim to be making progress around Bakhmut.
Last week, Pentagon officials anonymously told the New York Times that the “main thrust” of the counteroffensive has now begun in earnest, and that this is a favourable moment for the success of Ukraine’s army, given Russian command changes after the dismissal of Major General Ivan Popov and recent Ukrainian operations against Russian defensive positions.
And all this is before one considers the apprehension generated by Ukraine’s offensive operations on Russian territory. Ukrainian-aligned forces have been continuing their use of drone warfare, as shown by yesterday’s attack on the Moscow business district, while a police station in Russia’s western Bryansk region was hit overnight. Zelenskyy demonstrated greater bellicosity than usual last night, boasting that “war is returning to the territory of Russia” and “this is an inevitable, natural and absolutely fair process”.
A threat to hit the nuclear button is nothing new from Dmitry Medvedev. Yet what is unusual is the level of anxiety it reveals from Russia’s leadership. The British headlines may be contradictory on the health of Putin’s war effort, but signs of unease in the Kremlin are becoming increasingly clear.
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SubscribeThis “analysis” is pure garbage because the author has poor understanding of the original sources. First, it has become crystal clear already in 2022 that Russia found itself in proxy war with NATO. It was expressly confirmed multiple times by the highest level officials of the Western war machine (e.g. Victoria Nuland, Mike Pence, Lindsay Graham, Jens Stoltenberg, Annalena Baerbock, etc. with Oleksii Reznikov perfectly summarising on camera: “We are carrying out NATO’s mission today. They aren’t shedding their blood. We’re shedding ours. That’s why they’re required to supply us with weapons.”).
Second, the Russians, and Putin personally, has never really questioned that present-day Russia is no longer comparable to and is in fact dwarfed by NATO in conventional military capabilities. Therefore, if there is an all-out war against a more powerful enemy that seeks the destruction of state power (which is the case), it must naturally result sooner or later in nuclear escalation (which is by the way a quite standard response under similar circumstances in the nuclear doctrines of ALL nuclear powers, except for the USA, which uniquely reserves the discretionary right to pre-emptive nuclear strikes).
Again, all these have been repeated for two decades now and the facts that these warnings (i.e. the so-called “nuclear threats”) were repeated several times and that a trigger event has not materialised yet do not make the warnings “empty rhetoric”, only indicates that until now the Russian state power has still not received an irreversible major blow (which alone should be interesting enough for a cost-benefit assessment by the way). If it does, however, one could indeed finally be happy in the last seconds before evaporation that the rhetoric is no longer empty.
But for the deaf and blind this is surely beyond comprehension.
Since there won’t be “an all-out war” anywhere near Russia, your post is incomprehensible nonsense.
All Ukraine wants is the territory taken from it in 2014. Russia was doing far better before that than after.
Apocalyptic nonsense-rhetoric make you sound almost as dumb as one of Putin’s Z-Russians.
Every word of yours prove that ЦИПсО recruitment does not require intelligence, only uncontrolled, limitless, raging Russophobia. We get it.
Here in Europe though this is well below standard. This is why you don’t fit in, and this is why your whole operation is toxic.
Every word of yours prove that ЦИПсО recruitment does not require intelligence, only uncontrolled, limitless, raging Russophobia. We get it.
Here in Europe though this is well below standard. This is why you don’t fit in, and this is why your whole operation is toxic.
Since there won’t be “an all-out war” anywhere near Russia, your post is incomprehensible nonsense.
All Ukraine wants is the territory taken from it in 2014. Russia was doing far better before that than after.
Apocalyptic nonsense-rhetoric make you sound almost as dumb as one of Putin’s Z-Russians.
This “analysis” is pure garbage because the author has poor understanding of the original sources. First, it has become crystal clear already in 2022 that Russia found itself in proxy war with NATO. It was expressly confirmed multiple times by the highest level officials of the Western war machine (e.g. Victoria Nuland, Mike Pence, Lindsay Graham, Jens Stoltenberg, Annalena Baerbock, etc. with Oleksii Reznikov perfectly summarising on camera: “We are carrying out NATO’s mission today. They aren’t shedding their blood. We’re shedding ours. That’s why they’re required to supply us with weapons.”).
Second, the Russians, and Putin personally, has never really questioned that present-day Russia is no longer comparable to and is in fact dwarfed by NATO in conventional military capabilities. Therefore, if there is an all-out war against a more powerful enemy that seeks the destruction of state power (which is the case), it must naturally result sooner or later in nuclear escalation (which is by the way a quite standard response under similar circumstances in the nuclear doctrines of ALL nuclear powers, except for the USA, which uniquely reserves the discretionary right to pre-emptive nuclear strikes).
Again, all these have been repeated for two decades now and the facts that these warnings (i.e. the so-called “nuclear threats”) were repeated several times and that a trigger event has not materialised yet do not make the warnings “empty rhetoric”, only indicates that until now the Russian state power has still not received an irreversible major blow (which alone should be interesting enough for a cost-benefit assessment by the way). If it does, however, one could indeed finally be happy in the last seconds before evaporation that the rhetoric is no longer empty.
But for the deaf and blind this is surely beyond comprehension.
The Ukrainian-Russian War is peculiar in that nobody seems to know what is actually happening on the ground there save, presumably, a select circle within the high command on either side. Of course, throughout history during conflicts each side has attempted to provide the most positive spin on events for reasons of morale and war justification, but this is one of the few conflicts I’m aware of where even the very facts on the ground are completely unknown. Is Russia winning? Is Ukraine? We probably won’t know until it’s all over, and even then the spin machine will be going full-blast.
The Russians are winning
They’ve been winning so hard for so long now, it’s amazing that it’s all still happening in the present tense.
Oh yes, losing half their initial winnings, and sending human wave assaults to slow down the Ukrainian offensive is surely “winning.”
Fact is, Putin is so much more weakened than he was even a month ago that he dare not call a general mobilization.
And without that, Russia can never hold the crumbs it still has.
Anyone watching the war closely knows very well that that for almost 2 months, the Ukrainian counter offensive has been a total disaster, they have lost thousands of men and a huge number of tanks and armoured vehicles, they have failed to reach any of the main Russian defensive lines
All the Leopard super tanks have managed to do, is get their crews killed, please send the next wonder weapon the F-16 LOL
Anyone watching the war closely knows very well that that for almost 2 months, the Ukrainian counter offensive has been a total disaster, they have lost thousands of men and a huge number of tanks and armoured vehicles, they have failed to reach any of the main Russian defensive lines
All the Leopard super tanks have managed to do, is get their crews killed, please send the next wonder weapon the F-16 LOL
They’ve been winning so hard for so long now, it’s amazing that it’s all still happening in the present tense.
Oh yes, losing half their initial winnings, and sending human wave assaults to slow down the Ukrainian offensive is surely “winning.”
Fact is, Putin is so much more weakened than he was even a month ago that he dare not call a general mobilization.
And without that, Russia can never hold the crumbs it still has.
Truth is the first victim of war. Somebody said that.
The Russians are winning
Truth is the first victim of war. Somebody said that.
The Ukrainian-Russian War is peculiar in that nobody seems to know what is actually happening on the ground there save, presumably, a select circle within the high command on either side. Of course, throughout history during conflicts each side has attempted to provide the most positive spin on events for reasons of morale and war justification, but this is one of the few conflicts I’m aware of where even the very facts on the ground are completely unknown. Is Russia winning? Is Ukraine? We probably won’t know until it’s all over, and even then the spin machine will be going full-blast.
I think we need to understand that the nuke button is not necessary for Ukraine. Russia is taking care of what is necessary for the taking of Ukraine. They went on a war footing, and ramped up to 750K troops, allegedly on their way to 1.2M.
So, the nuke button is not necessary for the much smaller non-nuke wielding foe. However, the ones using that smaller foe as their proxy, they do have nukes, and so that’s what I think that button is for.
For the US, on March 28th 2022 Biden is the one who just implemented a new National Defense Strategy (NDS) that allows the US first nuclear weapons use, even the use against non-nuclear attacks, even attacks such as cyber could be labeled “extreme circumstances” and the US could nuke someone.
Didn’t that cretin George Bush Jnr make the same threat to Saddam Insane?
Okay Steve, you have earnt your wages for the week. You can stop now.
But he’s paid in Roubles, so with the exchange rate plummeting, he’ll need to earn more to afford next week’s turnip.
But he’s paid in Roubles, so with the exchange rate plummeting, he’ll need to earn more to afford next week’s turnip.
“Biolabs! Biolabs!”
You forgot biolabs!
Didn’t that cretin George Bush Jnr make the same threat to Saddam Insane?
Okay Steve, you have earnt your wages for the week. You can stop now.
“Biolabs! Biolabs!”
You forgot biolabs!
I think we need to understand that the nuke button is not necessary for Ukraine. Russia is taking care of what is necessary for the taking of Ukraine. They went on a war footing, and ramped up to 750K troops, allegedly on their way to 1.2M.
So, the nuke button is not necessary for the much smaller non-nuke wielding foe. However, the ones using that smaller foe as their proxy, they do have nukes, and so that’s what I think that button is for.
For the US, on March 28th 2022 Biden is the one who just implemented a new National Defense Strategy (NDS) that allows the US first nuclear weapons use, even the use against non-nuclear attacks, even attacks such as cyber could be labeled “extreme circumstances” and the US could nuke someone.
We must remember we are not dealing with rational people. Or maybe they just want us to think that.
We must remember we are not dealing with rational people. Or maybe they just want us to think that.
The reason Dmitry has to do this is because, otherwise, he might be a viable candidate to run against Putin, or replace him.
Putin can only beat a crazy man in a fair election. So that’s what Dmitry must become.
The reason Dmitry has to do this is because, otherwise, he might be a viable candidate to run against Putin, or replace him.
Putin can only beat a crazy man in a fair election. So that’s what Dmitry must become.
This is just standard Russian behaviour in Moscow or Leningrad.
When most Russians want something, they always threaten menacingly. If you just stand them down, or better yet, laugh, they invariably slink away.
That’s why, in any attack in this war, Russians always have to have someone behind them with a gun–who will shoot anyone who turns back.
Russians always need “encouragement” to take any real risks. That’s why most cannot do or create anything on their own.
Theirs is a Sub-Normal Culture.
This is just standard Russian behaviour in Moscow or Leningrad.
When most Russians want something, they always threaten menacingly. If you just stand them down, or better yet, laugh, they invariably slink away.
That’s why, in any attack in this war, Russians always have to have someone behind them with a gun–who will shoot anyone who turns back.
Russians always need “encouragement” to take any real risks. That’s why most cannot do or create anything on their own.
Theirs is a Sub-Normal Culture.