January 25, 2024 - 10:00am
If you come at the king, you best not miss. Fortunately for Simon Clarke MP, he only came at Rishi Sunak (by calling on him to resign in the Telegraph).
But while the embattled Prime Minister is no king, Clarke did in fact miss. His personal rebellion has not inspired a wider public mutiny, though it has been reported that a coterie of former Government advisers is working to oust Sunak before the general election. Instead, outwardly at least, there has been a closing of the ranks — with MPs such as Priti Patel urging colleagues to “unite and get on with the job” instead of “engaging in facile and divisive self indulgence”.
That’s an easy clap-line, but it doesn’t change the fact that the Tories are polling in the low-to-mid-twenties with no sign of recovery. It’s hardly self-indulgent to point that out — it’s a recognition of reality. If there’s no improvement, then Sunak will lead his party to its worst ever defeat.
Therefore, with a general election due this year, Clarke’s intervention is a timely one. What’s more, it comes just as the launch of Popular Conservatism is announced — a new Tory grouping in which Clarke, alongside Liz Truss and Jacob Rees-Mogg, is prominent. Then there’s the Telegraph itself — the house journal of the Conservative Party is at war with the Tory leadership.
And yet the “PopCon” moment appears to have left Sunak in a slightly stronger position than he was at the start of the week. There are several reasons for this. Firstly, when someone sticks their head above the parapet — as Clarke did on Tuesday night — they need their comrades to provide cover. But where were they? If the PopCons can’t coordinate among themselves then what is the point of the group’s existence?
Then there was the YouGov research that the Telegraph published along with the Clarke op-ed. It was meant to convince us that a new Conservative leader would do massively better than Sunak against Keir Starmer. But, such was the far from neutral phrasing of the options, the results were met with mockery.
While Clarke may have jumped the gun, that doesn’t mean that other MPs aren’t waiting for a more opportune moment. Sky’s political editor, Beth Rigby, tweets that according to a “senior MP” the breaking point could be the two by-elections on 15 February: “if we get slaughtered, the herd might well panic.”
Rigby also mentions that an article I wrote this week is being “circulated among MPs in marginal seats”. In it, I argue that while dumping Sunak would be a desperate move, it still beats the certainty of crushing defeat. That said, February would be too soon to press the panic button. Rather, the PM should have until the local elections in May to turn things around.
This timetable would also give his would-be successors a chance to work out what they would do in his place. Yet this is where the likes of Clarke, Truss and Rees-Mogg face their greatest challenge. Their obsession is with cutting taxation, but there’s overwhelming evidence that this is not the people’s priority — which, for the self-styled Popular Conservatives, is a bit of problem.
Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.
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SubscribeThe term “gambling for resurrection” comes to mind. When you’re already dead what have you got to lose?
They’re utterly delusional if they think that Truss (still tarnished from the gilt spike mortgage fiasco) or Mogg (just tarnished) and more Tory psychodrama are going to save them. Ironically Kwasi Kwarteng is the most stupendously capable of the lot but hasn’t got the political skills or connections to put himself back into a useful position.
And what is Truss proposing this time around when the low tax fantasy model was forcefully rejected? Is she actually going to propose some real cuts this time and are they going to start with pensions as 50% of the welfare bill? Or are they just positioning themselves to start blaming Labour for all the spending and suddenly start talking up all the welfare numbers they presided over for many years?
Low tax model rejected by whom? By Sunak? Who thinks high taxes bring in more revenue?
By the markets – i.e. people who actually know about the financial state of the UK.
The markets did not reject a low tax model.
The markets rejected the lack of a plan to correspondingly reduce spending to match that model.
It was a stupid mistake by Truss not to announce both at the same time.
If she had led the Tories into an election with her Thatcher tribute act the Tories would have been routed.
Johnson won a thumping majority thanks to Brexit and leaning slightly left economically, if the Tories had stuck to what they promised they wouldn’t be languishing where they are now
What you see is just panic. The boat is sinking. One lifeboat is called, “HMS Lower Taxes”, another is called, “SS Rwanda”.
Everybody likes to find a ship with their name on it but no-one wants to steer it properly to avoid all the underwater rocks.
and an iceberg with the word “reality” painted in big red letters on it.
You still wouldn’t recognise reality even if painted in big red letters right in front of your eyes …
What is the “peoples priority”?
Surely to have a comfortable life and not to have to think about politics. Unfortunately, it is very difficult for UnHerders to guess what ‘people’ want because we are the educated 1% who can make a reasoned argument.
The idea of ‘people’ also depends on age. Young people want to play at being people whilst old people want to tell young people what is good for them. How we miss the Grammar Schools – we are now drifting without a backbone.
Do the educated 1% who can make a reasoned argument comment? Not sure I’ve seen many of them.
But you can’t see it. Just writing a paragraph about ‘something’ would frighten most people – for fear of looking stupid perhaps.
A lot of my posts have grammatical faults but it doesn’t matter because I have the confidence to write.
And I suspect most here have the confidence to understand.
They’re too busy patting themselves on the back!
Priorities
Stop immigration.
Abolish the Human Rights Act
Abolish the Equality Act
Abolish the BBC licence fee
De-politicise, reform and reduce the civil service
Make the implementation of DEI policies illegal
Prohibit the promotion or teaching of CRT….
Those are luxury priorities for tory retirees. Most people in the country just want to get along and to have something to look forward to in life without having to constantly worry about making ends meet. Let’s do that part first and we can start worrying about your culture stuff.
The public don’t get “culture wars” as such. They certainly get – and overwhelmingly oppose – except in a few large cities, the current astronomical levels of immigration and the fact that foreigners are automatically effectively given the same rights (including to social housing) as established British communities – of all races. It is almost unbelievable, for example, how many liberal commentators ignore or outright deny that our housing crisis has anything at all to do with 700,000 per annum net migration!
This is not a “luxury” issue. The first part of what you say people want – which would certainly include good quality, plentiful and good value housing, is all too easy to glibly pronounce say, much more difficult to deliver!
Your response is disingenuous and betrays your leanings
If you cannot fix the big stuff fix what you can and it may just deliver the big stuff for you.
One of the problems you highlight (by implication) is sky high house prices which is largely driven by huge net immigration. Stop immigration and you will very soon see house prices fall.
Another problem you highlight (by implication) is low wages. Again low wages are to a very large degree the result of huge net immigration. Stop immigration and you will very soon see wages rise and as an added bonus it will force many of those currently malingering on benefits back to look for work.
The Human Rights Act, the Equality Act, the BBC, DEI and CRT are the tools of the left that they have very successful deployed to prevent meaningful reform. Abolish them and you remove a stumbling block to the changes we badly need and as a bonus you release all those people needlessly employed in the Hunan Rights, DEI and CRT industries, and by the BBC, to go and find proper jobs. Well we need someone to drive the delivery vans once we stop immigrants coming in for scam university courses.
Similarly with the civil service “You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go.” and we get more delivery drivers and cleaners.
I did not even list Net Zero. That is a real no brainer
I think I hall write out a list of 92 theses an nail them to the door of the nearest conservative constituency office
Note to King Charles: Appoint this man as Prime Minister with immediate effect!
Stop Immigration
Reduce Inflation
Fix the Health Service
Build Houses
Do that and you’d walk the next election
Exactly!!! The polls are so crude and unreliable. People want lower taxes and efficient public services. They will not get either. Ever. And I think they have finally woken up to the reality of The Trap. The unplanned mass migration of over 8m mainly low pay workers coupled with zealous EU legacy & net zero regulatory suffocation of the economy has stiffed us. We now have no cheap energy, no cheap homes and a bloated bailed out State, workshy public sector and a totally broken NHS. Any attempt to change ANY of this – deregulation, pro enterprise policies, proper nuclear and oil/gas security , a French system for health care, proper control of our borders and new international laws on asylum laws – be continue to be resisted and defeated by the London Establishment Progressives & their Quislings. They hold permanent power in our corrupted State. Polls. Politics. Pantomine.
The people’s priority is to solve the failure of previous rounds of higher public spending with more rounds of higher public spending.
They had a mandate and they had an opportunity. But they acted in contravention of the mandate, and squandered the opportunity. Rather than taking back control, the Tory government passed control of economic, fiscal, health, immigration, housing, and energy policy to the BoE, Sage, the IPCC, Universities UK, and any other quango, NGO, or court that wanted it. The interests, priorities, and life experience of the most influential figures in the Tory administration over the past 5 years – Boris and Carrie Johnson, Dominic Cummings, Rishi Sunak, Michael Gove and so on, were too far removed from those of the voters who gave them that mandate.
Stephen – You left the likes of McKinzie, PWC, EY and the various US interests they’re selling the NHS to out of your list. I’d place them as rather more significant than Vice Chancellors.
The Establishment’s soiling of itself over CV19 and the circular firings squad of the Russia sanctions are what will make this terminal for both the hopeless, cretinous Tory party and, alas, the UK too. Couldn’t have happened to a nicer country.
Who would want to buy the NHS?
People who want the £130 odd billion we shovel its way each year, perhaps?
B***cks to the crappy, mediocre NHS! Just as the public is starting to rumble how bad and producer-led this health “service” actually is (use it or …… no other option) we have some people on the Right joining the quasi religious worship.
You say:
“They had a mandate and they had an opportunity”.
But you don’t say what that mandate and opportunity was and is, other than hinting that abolishing the Bank of England, Sage, the IPCC, Universities UK, and any other quango, NGO, or court that wanted it, might help.
It might be good soundbite but is it feasible?
It is not a matter of abolishing anything, although government funding of NGOs so they can lobby for more funding while campaigning against government policy does seem perverse. But for example in 2019 Universities UK successfully lobbied then Universities Minister Jo Johnson (later a lobbyist for the universities sector) to automatically grant international students 2 year post study work visas with no cap on numbers, allowing them to apply for jobs regardless of their skills or the subject they studied, while retaining an entitlement to bring dependents into the country. The commercial priorities of low ranking universities were allowed to make a mockery of the Conservative pledge to reduce immigration.
“Popular Conservatives” like “Democratic People’s Republic of Korea”. If it were true you wouldn’t need to put it in the name.
The winning combination is left on economics, right on culture. Low taxes is not where we are. Wealth gap too great, and too much fear. There will be a new deal before we get to the end of this current hiatus (2032).