October 24, 2023 - 9:55pm

Democratic voters have become increasingly supportive of the Palestinian cause over the past decade, with young voters and American Muslims leading the charge.

This could pose a problem for President Joe Biden, who has affirmed Israel’s right to respond militarily to Hamas’s attacks and pledged to support their defence, including through a proposed $14.3 billion in a recent funding package. 

Net sympathy for Israel among Democratic voters declined from a high of 35% in 2013 to a current low of -11%, and their favourability towards the Palestinians rose from 24% in 2001 to 36% in 2023, according to Gallup.  

Muslims have been a solidly Democratic voting bloc for 20 years, but support has been waning. After Barack Obama won 89% of the Muslim vote in 2008, this fell to 75.9% for Hillary Clinton in 2016. In 2020, Joe Biden secured about 64% of the Muslim vote.

“There will be a non-insignificant number of Arabs, Muslims, and young voters who sit out 2024 or vote for Cornel West instead of Joe Biden in states like Michigan and Georgia given his near one-sided support of Netanyahu’s far right government’s atrocities,” Democratic strategist Waleed Shahid wrote, adding that “in terms of young voters turning sour, Gaza could do to President Biden what Vietnam did to LBJ.” 

A similar sentiment was raised by other Muslim and Arab Americans, who told Politico that they felt betrayed by Biden’s handling of the conflict. 

This isn’t the first time Muslim Americans’ support for Democrats has been challenged under the Biden administration. Over the past year, this demographic has joined forces with conservatives to protest in favour of restricting sexually explicit LGBT-themed content in several school districts, while the Biden administration has championed LGBT activism, including childhood gender transitions.

In June 2022, hundreds of parents, most of whom were Muslim or Ethiopian Orthodox Christians, protested a Montgomery County, Maryland, policy that blocked parents from opting their children out of certain lesson plans, including those addressing LGBT issues. Months later, a school board meeting in Dearborn, Michigan, had to be suspended amid a massive parent protest by Muslim parents, who held signs reading “Homosexuality Big Sin” and “Keep Your Dirty Books In The Closet.”

Hamtramck, Michigan, the first city in the US to have a Muslim-majority city council, banned the flying of LGBT pride flags on city property this summer. Muslims in Hamtramck and Dearborn have also fought against the legalisation of marijuana, a substance that is widely considered forbidden within Islam.  

Michigan will be a key battleground state in the 2024 election. This is also where Muslim and Arab Americans have a strong presence; some of the state’s cities offer Arabic language voting ballots, and in Dearborn, Michigan, 45% of the foreign-born population is Arab American. Biden only won this state by 150,000 votes in 2020. Democratic Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib, a vocal critic of Biden’s approach to the conflict, has called for a ceasefire. 

It is possible that the Biden administration is taking note. When asked about the spike in antisemitism in the US in the aftermath of the Hamas attacks, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre abruptly changed the subject to Islamophobia, saying that “Muslims and those perceived to be Muslim have endured a disproportionate number of hate-fueled attacks, and certainly President Biden understands that many of our Muslim, Arab-American and Palestinian-American loved ones and neighbours are worried about the hate being directed at their communities.”


is UnHerd’s US correspondent.