August 4, 2023 - 1:30pm
Ursula von der Leyen, as President of the European Commission, is the nearest the EU has to a proper leader. At every G7 summit there she is, rubbing shoulders with presidents and prime ministers who were actually elected to their elevated position.
Of course, no one voted for von der Leyen’s presidency. She wasn’t even the choice of the spitzenkanditat system, which is the European Parliament’s better-than-nothing attempt to create a democratic mandate for the role. Nevertheless, in 2019 she still got the job — manoeuvred into place by Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron.
Four years later, von der Leyen is seeking a second term, but this time she doesn’t have Merkel around to fix it for her. Indeed, as explained in a report for Politico, she faces a possible challenge from Manfred Weber who leads the European People’s Party (EPP) — the largest grouping in the European Parliament. In 2019, he was the EPP’s pick for the presidency — and would have got it had he not been replaced with von der Leyen. Turning the tables in 2023 would be sweet revenge.
The irony is that von der Leyen and Weber have a lot in common. They’re both German Christian Democrats and massive federalists to boot. However, they represent opposite tendencies on the European centre-right. Von der Leyen is more of a centrist while Weber leans strongly to the Right, leading a recent attack on the EU’s green agenda.
And yet there’s much more to this than personal rivalry and ideological tension.
The imposition of von der Leyen as President of the Commission was a grubby little fix, but it was consistent with standard EU practice. Despite their integrationist pieties, Europe’s national leaders don’t like to be overshadowed by the top EU officials. That’s why prestigious positions like the Commission presidency are reserved for big fish from small countries or small fish from big countries. Von der Leyen is an example of the latter — an undistinguished defence minister in Merkel’s cabinet, but a reliable ally.
So if she’s dropped after one term, it would signal that the distribution of power in the EU is shifting. Key players like Merkel have already left the stage, while Macron’s presidency is entering its terminal phase. Further, in both Germany and France the populist Right is on the rise. It might therefore suit the EU establishment to concentrate power in Brussels, which means recruiting serious politicians to wield it.
While Manfred Weber is one such candidate for the Commission presidency, there are others. For instance, Mark Rutte, who is stepping down after thirteen years as Dutch prime minister, is in with a shot.
Von der Leyen staying on would look like the EU giving up. Without dynamic and capable leadership from the centre it is difficult to see where the momentum for further integration would come from. The existing order would be left to decay, with the initiative passing to the populists.
On the other hand, a second term would take us to 2027 — when Emmanuel Macron will be looking for a new job. Trust him to play the long game.
Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.
peterfranklin_
Join the discussion
Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber
To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.
Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.
SubscribeI’d like to see an independent thinker like Nigel Farage head the EU. The last thing it needs is a bureaucrat like Mark Rutte who is nothing more than a WEF crony.
I’d like to see an independent thinker like Nigel Farage head the EU. The last thing it needs is a bureaucrat like Mark Rutte who is nothing more than a WEF crony.
Rutte is leaving politics, I don’t think he’d want the job.
All it needs to flick VdL out of the running is a leak regarding the infamous Pfizer texts.
Yes, disgraceful behavior.
Yes, disgraceful behavior.
Rutte is leaving politics, I don’t think he’d want the job.
All it needs to flick VdL out of the running is a leak regarding the infamous Pfizer texts.
Ursula von der Leyen has reproduced, on a much larger scale, her disastrous tenure as the German Minister for Defence, effectively destroying the Bundeswehr as a fighting force. Her accomplishments at the EU level are no less spectacular, aided as she has been by a clueless President of the European Council and a chief “diplomat” who has restyled his office into Minister for War of an organisation that does not even have an army.
The EU may very well not survive UvdL’s lunacies of COVID measures, Russia sanctions, and unlimited Ukraine war subsidies. To survive, it will take people of the practical genius of the European project’s post-war founders. Enough said.
Ursula von der Leyen has reproduced, on a much larger scale, her disastrous tenure as the German Minister for Defence, effectively destroying the Bundeswehr as a fighting force. Her accomplishments at the EU level are no less spectacular, aided as she has been by a clueless President of the European Council and a chief “diplomat” who has restyled his office into Minister for War of an organisation that does not even have an army.
The EU may very well not survive UvdL’s lunacies of COVID measures, Russia sanctions, and unlimited Ukraine war subsidies. To survive, it will take people of the practical genius of the European project’s post-war founders. Enough said.
It ia to be hoped. Mind you, if she then moves onto Head of Nato, leave her where she is. More widely i wonder how much longer German/ French politicians will dominate EU institutions. Germany is on industrial suicide watch a companied by abysmal demographics, France facing a downgrade. Meanwhile, Poand leading re-armament drive with strong GDP growth and Europe’s eastern borders will clearly be key for the foeseeable future. It feels as though Europe’s political centre of gravity is on the move.
Much as China taking over from US as world power. The sun is rising in the East.
Much as China taking over from US as world power. The sun is rising in the East.
It ia to be hoped. Mind you, if she then moves onto Head of Nato, leave her where she is. More widely i wonder how much longer German/ French politicians will dominate EU institutions. Germany is on industrial suicide watch a companied by abysmal demographics, France facing a downgrade. Meanwhile, Poand leading re-armament drive with strong GDP growth and Europe’s eastern borders will clearly be key for the foeseeable future. It feels as though Europe’s political centre of gravity is on the move.
Mark Rutte. Ugh.
Mark Rutte. Ugh.
When I read the article’s headline, my automatic response was – ‘hopefully.’
When I read the article’s headline, my automatic response was – ‘hopefully.’
Amazing, having an unelected (by the citizens) inept bureaucrat, following a string of inept unelected bureaucrats, not only goes against any vestige of common sense but gives the bureaucrats perfect cover for screwing up. No one is responsible or accountable. How did this happen? At least in the U.S., we have elected inept politicians that are sometimes held accountable but our unelected bureaucrats are still getting free passes for being totally inept. We have a big problem, but not like the EU’s.
Amazing, having an unelected (by the citizens) inept bureaucrat, following a string of inept unelected bureaucrats, not only goes against any vestige of common sense but gives the bureaucrats perfect cover for screwing up. No one is responsible or accountable. How did this happen? At least in the U.S., we have elected inept politicians that are sometimes held accountable but our unelected bureaucrats are still getting free passes for being totally inept. We have a big problem, but not like the EU’s.
The author raises an interesting point in that the EU may move further to the right to try and counter the rise of populist right parties. It also puts the Brexit/Rejoin argument in an interesting position. It is well known here that our youth is broadly speaking in agreement with much of the left wing identity politics that is currently plaguing the Anglosphere.
In Europe for the most part, this has not taken hold to anywhere near the same extent. Europeans my age (early 30’s and thereabouts) and younger are voting for politicians like Meloni, Le Pen and others in numbers that would horrify most of my peers. As a result of this, I think by the end of the decade, it is plausible that the right in this country will look at the EU as something we should join, and it will be the identity politics left that will want to keep us out.
Well it used to be the left that were against the EU a generation ago, so full circle is a possibility
Well it used to be the left that were against the EU a generation ago, so full circle is a possibility
The author raises an interesting point in that the EU may move further to the right to try and counter the rise of populist right parties. It also puts the Brexit/Rejoin argument in an interesting position. It is well known here that our youth is broadly speaking in agreement with much of the left wing identity politics that is currently plaguing the Anglosphere.
In Europe for the most part, this has not taken hold to anywhere near the same extent. Europeans my age (early 30’s and thereabouts) and younger are voting for politicians like Meloni, Le Pen and others in numbers that would horrify most of my peers. As a result of this, I think by the end of the decade, it is plausible that the right in this country will look at the EU as something we should join, and it will be the identity politics left that will want to keep us out.
Not to worry. If these political shenanigans don’t remove her from office I’m sure the EU citizens will vote her out the next chance they get.
I assume that’s a satirical comment given the citizens don’t get a vote
I assume that’s a satirical comment given the citizens don’t get a vote
Not to worry. If these political shenanigans don’t remove her from office I’m sure the EU citizens will vote her out the next chance they get.
She is dark, scheming and not to be trusted. I find her a criminal. Long history of deceit ie. Pfizer, German defense. Time for her to go.