X Close

Is a Ukrainian peace deal off the table?

Volodymyr Zelenskyy is in a weaker position than he was a year ago. Credit: Getty

November 23, 2023 - 11:55am

After the collapse of the Ukrainian counteroffensive over the summer, there are finally murmurings that it might be time to consider peace. This impulse has no doubt been increased by the explosion of tensions in the Middle East which emerged after the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October. These include not just the Israel-Hamas war itself, taking place in the Gaza Strip, but also attacks by Hezbollah in northern Israel and assaults on American bases in Syria and Iraq.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive itself has been a disaster. Kyiv’s plan was to push hard on the southern front, breaking through Russian defences and eventually taking the cities of Melitipol and Berdiansk. From here, it was thought that the Ukrainian army could regroup and march even further south, eventually taking Crimea. 

But from the very beginning, the Ukrainian plans seemed fanciful. The war has been characterised on both sides by slow, grinding movement, more reminiscent of the trenches of the First World War than the broad movements of the Second World War. The plan seemed to assume that Russian defences in the south were as thinly spread as they were in Kherson and Kharkiv when these collapsed in late 2022, but in reality the defences were extremely deep, encompassing everything from trenches to “killing fields” saturated with land mines and under full Russian fire control. 

Meanwhile, the global powers backing Ukraine have largely run out of ammo, an indictment of the deindustrialisation of the West. In contrast, Russia, China, and even North Korea can quickly retool their active industrial bases to produce enormous amounts of the artillery shells needed to supply the war, much as the European powers did in the two world wars. We exported much of our manufacturing capacity abroad in the Nineties, and that which remains is high-tech and specialist.

The emergence of calls for peace, then, is unsurprising. There is simply nothing else for the West to do to continue to support Ukraine. The prospect of building yet another army for the Ukrainians is not on the cards, with the remaining military equipment being deployed to the Middle East. But this raises the obvious question: are the Russians interested in discussing peace at this moment?

Western media has recently been focused on noises coming out of the Kremlin that signify openness to peace talks, with particular attention being paid to a video yesterday of Vladimir Putin calling the war a “tragedy” and saying that “Russia has never refused peace talks with Ukraine.” The keyword here, however, is “never”. Putin is signalling that this has always been Russia’s position since the beginning of the war. This has ramifications for whether peace talks do actually emerge.

In the Ukrainian stronghold of Avdiivka, for instance, heavy fighting has been taking place for weeks. Despite many Western media sources highlighting Russian losses, the following map (from a Ukrainian source) shows clearly that the noose is tightening around the city. The Russians appear to be using the same tactics that they deployed in Bakhmut: surround the city, cut off supply lines, then move in and wipe out the defenders.

This raises the question of why the Russians would come to the negotiating table if they are advancing in key strategic areas. If the Ukrainian army is indeed weak and, as Western reports readily admit, is unlikely to be resupplied, why would the Russians not press on and capture as much territory as possible before negotiations? Such a prospect has not even begun to be discussed in the West.

Then there is the fallout from the war itself, which appears to have left European economies permanently weaker. This week, it was announced that the energy price cap in Britain would be raised once more. Across Europe, similarly increasing costs are eviscerating the continent’s manufacturing base, which cannot compete on the world stage with such high prices.

Or take Britain’s ongoing fiscal crisis. The Government debt-to-GDP ratio is now close to 100%. The latest numbers for October 2023 show borrowing of £14.9 billion, higher than last year’s £10.5 billion. Many of Britain’s fiscal problems can be traced to the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) required after the sanctions and counter-sanctions drove energy prices sky-high. The EPG could end up costing the Government up to £38 billion.

With their exclusive focus on military outcomes rather than looking at the broader geoeconomic issues, Western leaders still appear to think of geopolitics as if it were 1823 instead of 2023 — and so their power on the world stage ebbs away before our eyes. Now that the military option has been expended, Western leaders desire peace, but they have put themselves in a position of weakness, where it may be more difficult than they think to secure


Philip Pilkington is a macroeconomist and investment professional, and the author of The Reformation in Economics

philippilk

Join the discussion


Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber


To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.

Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.

Subscribe
Subscribe
Notify of
guest

36 Comments
Most Voted
Newest Oldest
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Claire M
Claire M
10 months ago

This whole debacle as a proxy war against Russia has been a joke. The West has only itself to blame, thinking Russia was not serious about NATO expansion, was militarily weak and would fold under sanctions. Of course it’s not funny to contemplate the terrible death toll and billions wasted on this stupid enterprise. And as Zelensky warned – all those Ukrainian refugees floating around Europe are going to be very angry indeed.

Peter B
Peter B
10 months ago
Reply to  Claire M

Reality check: Putin was actually demanding in December 2021 that NATO downsize and get out of much of Eastern Europe. That wasn’t a concern about “NATO expansion”. It was a desire to downsize NATO. And clearly quite unacceptable. And nothing whatever to do with Ukraine.
The death toll and billions wasted in the Ukraine conflict are the fault of Putin and the Russian leadership and no one else. Putin and his stupid and botched invasion of Ukraine. One man’s vanity and delusion. The war of Putin’s ego.
None of this is a joke.
And yes it is a proxy war. One started by Putin.

Jim Veenbaas
Jim Veenbaas
10 months ago
Reply to  Peter B

The US rejected a demand by Putin to forbid Ukraine from joining NATO only weeks before the invasion.

The article I link to was written before the invasion.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60145159

Peter B
Peter B
10 months ago
Reply to  Jim Veenbaas

Putin demanded before the invasion that NATO start leaving parts of Eastern Europe. Like he has any business telling NATO who is or isn’t allowed in NATO.
Putin made many ridiculous demands at that time which he must have known could never be accepted by NATO countries. And – quite correctly – they were rejected.

Jim Veenbaas
Jim Veenbaas
10 months ago
Reply to  Peter B

Well, if you’re not willing to bend to any demands, then you get war.

Peter B
Peter B
10 months ago
Reply to  Jim Veenbaas

Cut the nonsense please. Those were not reasonable demands as any sane person in the West knows.

Jeff James
Jeff James
10 months ago
Reply to  Peter B

Peter, I’m very sorry to say this but you’re an idiot. NATO (the US) clearly, clearly started this war. NATO expansion was never going to be met with anything other than force from Russia – Putin telegraphed it no NO uncertain terms for a decade. They went ahead anyway.
Ukraine has been disgustingly ill-used.
We have Warmonger leaders in the West – they thought this was going to be easy. They, like you are deeply wrong.

Andrew Fisher
Andrew Fisher
10 months ago
Reply to  Jeff James

You can actually blame both sides here as you can with many conflicts!. But I’d blame the state that actually launched an all out war having already successfully occupied parts of Ukraine several years earlier as more to blame. To ignore this is wilfully blind.

Repeating the word “clearly” doesn’t strengthen your argument. It’s pretty “clear” to me that the last thing the US needs or wants right now is this war.

Last edited 10 months ago by Andrew Fisher
Martin Johnson
Martin Johnson
10 months ago

You fail to mention perhaps the most important reason the Russians may not want to negotiate at this point–the West has repeatedly proven itself to not be a responsible negotiating partner. From ignoring the commitment to Gorbachev that NATO would not expand past the reunified Germany, to the Minsk Accords that Merkel, Hollande, and Poroshenko all subsequently said that they never intended to honor, only to use the respite to accelerate arming Ukraine, to a sanctions regime that virtually expropriated the Russian Central Bank’s foreign reserves when not in a declared state of war, the Russian government has no reason to believe the West will abide by any agreement, and plenty of evidence to think otherwise.

Allison Barrows
Allison Barrows
10 months ago

The entire escapade in Ukraine was engineered and paid for by Western criminals needing a cover story for their money laundering. Since they own the keyboards of communication, they overturned a legally elected government, installed a plucky little T-shirt-clad “underdog” of their invention, and told the world a gigantic lie.
Now that Hamas is the plucky keffiyah-clad underdog du jour, the fickle permanently-online have moved on. All those blue and yellow virtue symbols on social media have been replaced by red, black, white, and green.

Peter B
Peter B
10 months ago

It may have escaped your notice, but many people who support Ukraine are opposed to Hamas. Indeed there might be a stronger correlation between Ukraine opponents and Hamas than what you suggest. Of course, all permutations of pro/anti Ukraine and pro/anti Hamas are possible – as are less extreme positions.
These evil Western criminals clearly haven’t shut down your keyboard (or mine) just yet ! And nor should they.

Robbie K
Robbie K
10 months ago

Utterly delusional.

Will K
Will K
10 months ago

This war was, and is, a tragedy on every level, and all efforts should be on stopping it. Blame can be considered later. But I’d expect much more than half the blame will eventually be put on the West.

Rocky Martiano
Rocky Martiano
10 months ago

‘Britain’s ongoing fiscal crisis’. What fiscal crisis? Our esteemed Chancellor has today dispensed largesse to the masses, like confetti at a wedding. Let the good times roll.

Adrian Smith
Adrian Smith
10 months ago

It is and it always has been far easier to defend something than capture it – the Russians found this out when they first invaded. It was completely obvious that the conflict had entered a WW 1 type stale mate where continuing was only going to be a test of who runs out of soldiers to sacrifice first. The time to get a peace settlement was as the build up to the offensive was going on but it had not started. I had hoped that all the grand talk of retaking Crimea on one side and of existential threats leading to nuclear response on the other was just a smoke screen to cover whilst a peace deal was hammered out, but sadly not.
Ukraine is now in a far weaker negotiating position and is inevitable running out of young people’s lives to throw away whilst Putin still have plenty of young Russian lives still to squander.

Rocky Martiano
Rocky Martiano
10 months ago
Reply to  Adrian Smith

The time to get a peace settlement was when one was actually on the table, two months into the conflict. It had even been agreed to by Zelensky, before Boris flew into Kiev to tell him ‘not on your Nellie, you’re going to fight to the last Ukrainian…and we’re right behind you’.

Peter B
Peter B
10 months ago
Reply to  Rocky Martiano

Please stop repeating this nonsense.
And recall that Putin actually presented a quite ridiculous list of demands to NATO – like leaving Poland – which could never be accepted, regardless of what Ukraine said.

Rocky Martiano
Rocky Martiano
10 months ago
Reply to  Peter B

I suggest you inform yourself before accusing others of spouting nonsense.
https://braveneweurope.com/michael-von-der-schulenburg-hajo-funke-harald-kujat-peace-for-ukraine

Martin Johnson
Martin Johnson
10 months ago
Reply to  Peter B

That is called a “negotiating position” or a “first offer.” A NATO interested in seeking a settlement would have said, “We cannot accept this as proposed, but we will negotiate toward something mutually acceptable, if you are interested.”

Peter B
Peter B
10 months ago
Reply to  Martin Johnson

You do not go into serious negotiations by asking for something that is impossible !

Иван Иванович
Иван Иванович
10 months ago

Project “Ukraine” must be closed

Dominic A
Dominic A
10 months ago

“Meanwhile, the global powers backing Ukraine have largely run out of ammo, an indictment of the deindustrialisation of the West. In contrast, Russia, China, and even North Korea can quickly retool their active industrial bases to produce enormous amounts of the artillery shells needed to supply the war”
Really? According to one trusted source (SIPRI), the USA, Germany, Italy & France’s arms exports add to 22 million ‘TIV’ a year, whilst Russia and Chinas total 5. Moreover, of the top 15 manufacturers 11 are Western ($250 billion annually); 4 are Chinese ($60 billion).

Colin Haller
Colin Haller
10 months ago
Reply to  Dominic A

Never mind the dollar “values” on some spreadsheet somewhere — it’s the molecules that matter (in this case metals and explosives).

Dominic A
Dominic A
10 months ago
Reply to  Colin Haller

The TIV is based on the known unit production costs of a core set of weapons and is intended to represent the transfer of military resources rather than the financial value of the transfer.

Jeff James
Jeff James
10 months ago
Reply to  Dominic A

Apart for war reserves they’re completely out. Then again they can find ammo for Israel.
That’s the difference between an ally or a proxy. — Nauseating.

Ira Perman
Ira Perman
10 months ago

.

Last edited 10 months ago by Ira Perman
Philip Pilkington
Philip Pilkington
10 months ago
Reply to  Ira Perman

.

Last edited 10 months ago by Philip Pilkington
Iris C
Iris C
10 months ago

Does Russia still supply oil to Ukraine?

Peter B
Peter B
10 months ago

Another frankly silly article from Mr. Pilkington, which is, however, perhaps succeeding in its purpose as clickbait for pro-Russian opinions.
The emotional and exaggerated tone is sadly typical of this man’s work and the judgements as dubious and unbalanced as ever. He’s yet another commentator who’s proved unable to change his initial views and learn and adapt as events have developed.
The West is no more “out of ammo” than Russian. And Ukraine no more “out of troops” than Russia.
It is Russia that is stuck in the still imperialist mindset of the 1800s here and not the West. They are desperately refusing to accept that the Russian empire is over and get on with life in the modern world like everyone else.
In what respect is the Ukrainian summer offensive actually the “disaster” Pilkington seems to want it to be ? As usual, this is asserted with no facts. Nor even any suggestion that he knows any more of the reality than any of us (which I suspect is the truth). It is certainly not the success they hoped for (whether they expected it to be is harder to say – most of the operations in this conflict seem to be made as much for political reasons as military ones), but neither can it be said to be a disaster in whihc they have lost more ground, manpower and resources than the Russians. Reality appears to be that it’s largely a stalemate, with neither side making much progress.
Any economic problems Britain has are largely home grown and within our power to remedy. That’s even more the case for the EU.
Mr. Pilkington might recall that Ukraine eventually withdrew from Bakhmut and that its troops there were not “wiped out” in a military disaster. Russia will likely capture Avdiivka, but only – as in Bakhmut – at an appalling cost in losses for only a small gain.
But yes, there are no winners from this conflict (perhaps China and Turkey ?) and it’s arguable there’s little point in continuing it at this point. But it can only be stopped if there’s a new, stable equilibrium that can be reached in which both Russia and Ukraine agree and accept new borders. I’ve said all along that this probably mean Ukraine ceding some – perhaps all – the territory Russia occupied before February 2022. And perhaps more than that.
But that would take a leader of world stature to sponsor talks. There’s no sign of that happening. And who might that be ?

D Walsh
D Walsh
10 months ago
Reply to  Peter B

Sorry Peter, but the West really is low on certain types of ammo, and the Ukraine really is running out fighting age men who are will to die for the neocons

Peter B
Peter B
10 months ago
Reply to  D Walsh

Has it occurred to you that the Ukrainians are actually fighting for themselves and their own country and freedom ? Or are you suggesting they’re actually being paid by some nefarious “neocons” to do it ?
It’s curious how keen all the critics of Ukraine – and the West here – are to deny the Ukrainians any say (agency) in their own future. Or doesn’t that matter ? Or do they really want the Russians to take over their country ?
You know about these ammo shortages from which factual sources ? I’m sure everyone is a little short on something by now. But that applies to both sides. But Russia will never be short of apologists round here, will it ?
How long will it be in your judgement for the Russians to move from “they are winning” to actually “winning” ? It’s sure taking a long time. Must be rather frustrating for you.

Colin Haller
Colin Haller
10 months ago
Reply to  Peter B

Which “Ukrainians are actually fighting for themselves and their own country and freedom?” There’s been a civil war going on there since 2014 in case you hadn’t noticed, with Ukrainians on both sides. 

Michael Cazaly
Michael Cazaly
10 months ago
Reply to  Peter B

Russia has already won. It controls a large tranche of what was formerly Ukraine and it won’t be giving it back.
The West’s sanctions against Russia have utterly failed, and have mainly damaged western Europe.
The West’s illusion of supreme power has been destroyed in the eyes of “developing world”. Regrettably the rulers of the American Empire have not yet understood this.
I do not say this with any pleasure at all.
However all empires overreach themselves and the American Empire has now done just that.

Peter B
Peter B
10 months ago
Reply to  Michael Cazaly

You are missing the big picture. Russia has already lost. Terminal demographic decline. Huge brain drain of skilled young people (what free-thinking young person would want to stay there now ?). Defence industry essentially finished now – China will likely take over the Russian role there.
There is no “American Empire” – there nevere has been. The only remaining empire is the Russian one which they only exists in the minds of deluded Russians decades after it ceased to actually exist.

D Walsh
D Walsh
10 months ago
Reply to  Peter B

We know the West/Ukraine is running low on shells because the Biden regime have started supplying them with cluster munitions, in place of normal shells, what happens when the cluster shells are gone ? added to that, Israel is now asking the US for weapons, if its a choice between supplying Israel or supplying the Ukraine, I think we all know who is getting the hardware

Jeff James
Jeff James
10 months ago
Reply to  Peter B

How many more downvotes is it going to take, Peter, before an a tiny spark lights in your mind that you might be deeply wrong.
This is 3 hours long but I strongly suggest you put the work in!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4wLXNydzeY&t=89s