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How RFK Jr. could decide the 2024 election

November 17, 2023 - 4:05pm

One year out from the US presidential election, an extensive new national survey carried out by Stack Data Strategy has shown that if a Biden-Trump election were held today, Donald Trump would win. Just as interesting a conclusion from the polling is the hugely disruptive impact Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is having on both candidates’ electoral prospects. 

Stack polled 15,000 Americans and then projected results down to a state and local level. Joe Bedell, the organisation’s Associate Director, spoke to UnHerd’s Freddie Sayers about what we can glean from these findings. 

Bedell told UnHerd that, while Trump was projected to win 292 electoral votes and so the presidency, he would lose the popular vote, just as he did in 2016. “He’s essentially rebuilding the pathway that he had in 2016 to the presidency,” the pollster claimed. “So in 2016, Trump won states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia. In 2020, Biden flipped those states back.”

Meanwhile, Kennedy’s influence is emerging as a key factor in determining who will win the presidency next year. While Stack predicts Kennedy taking 8% votes nationally in a poll which includes other independent candidates, two further surveys from the New York Times and Quinnipiac University predict a much more significant gain for him, 24% and 22% respectively. Stack did not poll for a three-way battle between Trump, Biden and Kennedy, which may explain the discrepancy between the results. 

While the NYT polling showed Kennedy taking more votes from Trump, Bedell argued that, in Stack’s survey, “RFK is taking 8% of Biden voters in that electorate. And then he’s taking only about 7% of Trump’s 2020 numbers. So he’s pulling about a point more from former Biden voters, and that can obviously swing states like Nevada to Trump.”

The list of donations to Kennedy’s campaign suggests that his support base is more Republican than Democratic, but Bedell claimed that this observation doesn’t tell the whole story. 

Another thing that the analysis found, though, was that the majority of the money RFK is receiving is from people who have not donated to a political campaign before. So that might again speak to the fact that someone like RFK is a very unique candidate, who’s engaging people who typically would be tuned out of a Biden-Trump rematch.
- Joe Bedell

Donald Trump might be leading the pack, then, according to the Stack data, but Kennedy’s disruptive potential is bound to shape whatever happens in 2024.

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Andre Rego
Andre Rego
5 months ago

I am not a US citizen and I do not live in the US but I have donated for his campaign (through american friends). He started as a breath of fresh air and his candidacy is now the most exciting possibility in American politics. Main stream media still has to accept that he exists and he is already polling above 20 per cent. Hopefully he is going to make it.

Angela JB
Angela JB
5 months ago

It is amazing that neither participant on this pod mentioned the singular reason RFK Jr. is doing so well in the polls – and it has nothing to do with his last name. It is because of his stance on vaccine safety and absolute defense of informed consent and medical freedom. It is also because he does not willfully lie. Biden’s mandating of the Covid vaccines, his eager willingness to absolutely trash informed consent and his administration’s blatant attempts to suppress freedom of speech – doomed his political future. Add in his embrace of the far left in his party – after he promised to govern from the middle – and you get a perfect political storm. Trump and his crazy pants minions are equally unacceptable to most Americans so prepare for an upset unless the major parties change the candidates at the top of the ticket.

AC Harper
AC Harper
5 months ago

Trump as President and RFK as Vice President? That would do some heads in.

David Harris
David Harris
5 months ago
Reply to  AC Harper

Just stay away from Dealey Plaza…

AC Harper
AC Harper
5 months ago
Reply to  David Harris

🙂

Gerald Arcuri
Gerald Arcuri
5 months ago
Reply to  David Harris

Sick comment.

Andrew Thompson
Andrew Thompson
5 months ago

RFK: someone desperately needed in the UK, some fresh air running the sh** show we have here. New blood to replace the two clowns and their relevant power mad crews scrapping over who’s going to be ruining (sic) the country after the next GE

Johann Strauss
Johann Strauss
5 months ago

It’;s early days yet and we will have to see if RFK Jr actually catches fire. Somehow I doubt it but one never knows. There is a lot to like about RFK Jr and his stance on the covid vaccines was spot on, but he has a lot of cookie ideas as well.

Mike SampleName
MS
Mike SampleName
5 months ago

Only way to decide it is a bare-knuckle fight to the death. With any luck they’d both keel over and an adult can enter the room.

Simon S
Simon S
5 months ago

The adult is RFK Jr. If his current support level holds he only needs another 5 points each from Trump and Biden to move ahead, and he has a year to go. He has all the momentum right now.

Last edited 5 months ago by Simon S
Michael Cazaly
Michael Cazaly
5 months ago

Yes indeed! The “adults” have done so well for Britain since taking control . And yes, that is sarcasm; the place is literally falling apart and nothing works properly…

Simon Boudewijn
Simon Boudewijn
5 months ago

Biden running in 2024? The man is a mere husk spouting wild faux pas, incoherent rambling, and imaginary stories wile physically collapsing before our eyes. May as well say Hunter Biden will be running for the Democrats in 2024, as the chances are about equal. haha, now that would be something; Be better than Kamala though. Cocaine in the White House? Oh, yes……

The problem with RFK is that he is a Uniparty Democrat with some populist agenda issues He is not the US Marines showing up just as the battle is being lost – he is a rag-tag brigade of diversity hires whose main Basic training was in gender issues, showing up and looking for their safe space in a bunker.

Sure, he would put lipstick on the pig, but it would just be a pretty pig.

The Question is WHO? (haha, literally and figuratively) Who will the Democrats run? How will they compete with Trump and Kennedy.
Biden, RFK, Trump in 2024 – it is not a real thing.

Edward Seymour
Edward Seymour
5 months ago

RFK may be open to vaccine freedom, but he also advocated that covid was designed to be harmless to a certain minority demographic. There is a whiff of antisemitism about him. Sorry but there just is.

Gerald Arcuri
GA
Gerald Arcuri
5 months ago

As soon as enough of the American electorate get a whiff of Robert Kenndy’s crackpot ideas, they will turn away from him in droves. He hasn’t hit the big leagues yet, but when he does, his opponents will expose him for the nutter he is.

Kolya Wolf
Kolya Wolf
5 months ago
Reply to  Gerald Arcuri

I agree he’s a nutter. But so are millions of US voters.