June 5, 2023 - 10:00am
Germany’s 2021 federal election appeared to be a turning point: the end of the Merkel era, but also a major setback for the populist Right.
Just four years earlier, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) had surged to third place in the 2017 election. With 94 seats, the AfD was the biggest opposition party in the Bundestag. Hence the widespread relief in 2021, when the Right-wingers slumped to fifth place and lost 11 seats. For establishment liberals across Europe, it was what they were waiting for — a sure sign the populist wave had peaked and crashed.
But as I’ve argued before, populism should be thought of as a tide, not a wave. The latest polling from Germany makes it abundantly clear that the populist tide is rising again. Since last year, AfD support has been on an upward trend, to the extent that the party is now tied with the Social Democrats in second place.
Far from being a busted flush, Right-wing populism is as strong now as it’s ever been — and not just in Germany. Indeed, it’s a potent force in all the “big five” EU countries: Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland.
In Spain, Vox made significant gains in last week’s regional elections and is well placed to gain a share of national power in next month’s general election. In Italy and Poland, national populist parties are already in government. And in France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is leading the polls — despite competition from a rival Rightist, Éric Zemmour.
British Rejoiners are still pretending not to notice, but there’s little doubt that the continental Right is back in a big way. The only question is how far they’ll go this time.
The last big surge came in the wake of the 2015 refugee crisis. Immigration is still a major concern, but today’s European leaders are unlikely to throw open their borders as Angela Merkel did in Germany. Another significant issue in 2015 was the Eurozone crisis, yet that too is now of diminished salience.
This time, the key driver of German populist sentiment appears to be the conflict with Russia over Ukraine. The impact on energy prices has worked to the AfD’s advantage — especially in the former East Germany, where pro-Moscow sympathies linger.
Is this another temporary effect? Not if the disruption to Germany’s economic model is only just starting. In the long run, the surge of car exports from China could prove to be of greater consequence than the interruption to energy supplies from Russia.
Though Europe has come through Covid and may yet prevail against Putin, the EU’s underlying problems — including its economic vulnerability, political paralysis and democratic deficit — are fundamentally unresolved. That is why populism keeps on coming back, as a force for permanent discontent to offset the permanent establishment in Brussels and Frankfurt.
There is one thing that is shifting, though, and that’s the determination of the elites to exclude the populists from power. This effort has already collapsed in Italy, is giving way in Spain, and is looking shaky in France. But, to date, Germany has stood firm. The AfD is excluded from national coalitions and also from all sixteen of the country’s state governments.
Of course, that wasn’t so difficult when the party was on 10% of the vote. On 20% it becomes harder. For the moment, the centre still holds, but for how much longer can it resist?
Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.
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SubscribeMaybe people are just sick of the governing elite – intruding on our lives in countless ways, while failing to deliver anything close to competent governance.
Spot on Jim. Most Germans have a problem with the far right, which is no surprise. This has enabled the CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP, and Bundis90/Die Gruenen to be as irresponsible as they have been over the last decade or so. The elites are causing a great deal of misery.
Mass migration into Europe coupled with Net Zero is killing Europe. Sometimes a step or two back is the best way to take a few steps forward. I don’t see the AfD as the saviours, but they probably have the best shot at correcting the course.
Spot on Jim. Most Germans have a problem with the far right, which is no surprise. This has enabled the CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP, and Bundis90/Die Gruenen to be as irresponsible as they have been over the last decade or so. The elites are causing a great deal of misery.
Mass migration into Europe coupled with Net Zero is killing Europe. Sometimes a step or two back is the best way to take a few steps forward. I don’t see the AfD as the saviours, but they probably have the best shot at correcting the course.
Maybe people are just sick of the governing elite – intruding on our lives in countless ways, while failing to deliver anything close to competent governance.
“Populism”
Appeals to popular sentiments that lie at odds with those belonging to a select few who have decided they know better, despite the consequences of their thinking invariably proving otherwise.
I take issue with that centrist weasel-word ‘sentiment’, which the author of the piece also used. It’s not ‘sentiment’ that’s the issue here, but the country people can see with their own eyes all around them, potholed roads and mass immigration and depressed High Streets and nasty cramped Lego estates of cramped, jerry-built houses at rip-off prices. It’s collapsing real wages, soaring taxes, skyrocketing national debt and a bloated authoritarian State run by unaccountable rainbow weirdos.
This isn’t sentiment: it’s reality. The sentimentalists here aren’t the populists: they’re the politicians of the ‘mainstream’ parties, the public sector, academia and the NGOs and their bourgeois ballot-fodder.
I take issue with that centrist weasel-word ‘sentiment’, which the author of the piece also used. It’s not ‘sentiment’ that’s the issue here, but the country people can see with their own eyes all around them, potholed roads and mass immigration and depressed High Streets and nasty cramped Lego estates of cramped, jerry-built houses at rip-off prices. It’s collapsing real wages, soaring taxes, skyrocketing national debt and a bloated authoritarian State run by unaccountable rainbow weirdos.
This isn’t sentiment: it’s reality. The sentimentalists here aren’t the populists: they’re the politicians of the ‘mainstream’ parties, the public sector, academia and the NGOs and their bourgeois ballot-fodder.
“Populism”
Appeals to popular sentiments that lie at odds with those belonging to a select few who have decided they know better, despite the consequences of their thinking invariably proving otherwise.
Whichever way we vote we still have a left wing elite that does not change and will never willing loosen their grip on the levers of power which they use unflinchingly to protect their own wealth and power.
The only hope for change id the AfD an parties like them.
The biggest challenge is the bureaucracy. How do you eradicate the left wing, progressive ideology that dominates the people who implement policy?
A mass cull. Cut off their budgets. Close down whole Departments, one by one.
Same goes for the University degree racket and Arts Council: cut off the taxpayer funding (Student Loans and all) and then we’ll see what they’re really worth to people.
You forgot to mention NGOs
Is this even possible in a practical sense? Does someone have to swear an oath to conservative ideology? I’m not super keen on that idea. Bureaucrats should be allowed to have political beliefs. The problem is this infects their willingness – for some of them anyway – to implement policy counter to their ideology.
You forgot to mention NGOs
Is this even possible in a practical sense? Does someone have to swear an oath to conservative ideology? I’m not super keen on that idea. Bureaucrats should be allowed to have political beliefs. The problem is this infects their willingness – for some of them anyway – to implement policy counter to their ideology.
A mass cull. Cut off their budgets. Close down whole Departments, one by one.
Same goes for the University degree racket and Arts Council: cut off the taxpayer funding (Student Loans and all) and then we’ll see what they’re really worth to people.
The biggest challenge is the bureaucracy. How do you eradicate the left wing, progressive ideology that dominates the people who implement policy?
Whichever way we vote we still have a left wing elite that does not change and will never willing loosen their grip on the levers of power which they use unflinchingly to protect their own wealth and power.
The only hope for change id the AfD an parties like them.
The surge of the AfD has nothing to do with “far right populist” politics, it has more to do with the utter failure of the CDU being a proper opposition party. This former middle class party was pulled to the left by Merkel and her Green “Energie Wende” and open door politics. There seems to be only a paper thin difference between the CDU and the SPD nowadays, leaving the middle and working classes and the all important important Mittelstand, engine of Germany’s economy, in dire straights: Energy prices are exploding, and a never ending stream of migrants are creating housing shortages, huge burden on social security and causing increasing crime. The big parties seem to have no solutions and the current “Traffic Light” coalition with its Green Economics Minister seems to be a total disaster. The AfD is becoming the big protest party, and if there is no change of direction in Germany’s politics, might even overtake the CDU.
The surge of the AfD has nothing to do with “far right populist” politics, it has more to do with the utter failure of the CDU being a proper opposition party. This former middle class party was pulled to the left by Merkel and her Green “Energie Wende” and open door politics. There seems to be only a paper thin difference between the CDU and the SPD nowadays, leaving the middle and working classes and the all important important Mittelstand, engine of Germany’s economy, in dire straights: Energy prices are exploding, and a never ending stream of migrants are creating housing shortages, huge burden on social security and causing increasing crime. The big parties seem to have no solutions and the current “Traffic Light” coalition with its Green Economics Minister seems to be a total disaster. The AfD is becoming the big protest party, and if there is no change of direction in Germany’s politics, might even overtake the CDU.
Perhaps the Populist tide is coming back because more people fear the Left undertow? To mix a metaphor or two.
To refer to a Monty Python film… what have the Left done for us?
Made us all poorer and made many people dependant.
All the better to bring forward a milquetoast, hi-tech version of Pol Pot’s Year Zero….
All the better to bring forward a milquetoast, hi-tech version of Pol Pot’s Year Zero….
Made us all poorer and made many people dependant.
Perhaps the Populist tide is coming back because more people fear the Left undertow? To mix a metaphor or two.
To refer to a Monty Python film… what have the Left done for us?
We keep being told periodically that Le Pen in France and AfD in Germany are spent forces that have peaked but these claims just get exposed as liberal fantasies. Both National Rally and AFD are the only plausible alternatives to the status quo in their respective states so they won’t be going away.
We keep being told periodically that Le Pen in France and AfD in Germany are spent forces that have peaked but these claims just get exposed as liberal fantasies. Both National Rally and AFD are the only plausible alternatives to the status quo in their respective states so they won’t be going away.
Is it a tide, or more like floodwaters behind a dam. Every new crisis pokes a little hole and the establishment has to then plug up, but with each patch job and plugged hole, the structure gets weaker. Will the establishment take a step back and make the costly (to them) reforms that it will take to reinforce the dam and/or redirect the waters, or will they keep plugging holes and dumping more water into the reservoir until it collapses. With each new disillusioned and disgusted voter, the task only gets bigger and more expensive. I’m of the opinion that they’ve already lost. Their choices are to either accept some hard checks on globalism voluntarily, or eventually have those same changes rammed down their throats, possibly with a side of pitchforks and torches.
Is it a tide, or more like floodwaters behind a dam. Every new crisis pokes a little hole and the establishment has to then plug up, but with each patch job and plugged hole, the structure gets weaker. Will the establishment take a step back and make the costly (to them) reforms that it will take to reinforce the dam and/or redirect the waters, or will they keep plugging holes and dumping more water into the reservoir until it collapses. With each new disillusioned and disgusted voter, the task only gets bigger and more expensive. I’m of the opinion that they’ve already lost. Their choices are to either accept some hard checks on globalism voluntarily, or eventually have those same changes rammed down their throats, possibly with a side of pitchforks and torches.
This turn to the right in many EU member states may also presage the EU moving further to the right.
This would make the Labour leadership preference for rejoining even more absurdly at odds with the traditions of its members.
Traditional Labour supporters have
always been patriotic so joining the EEC, EC, EU was always at odds with the traditions of Labour members.
At one time Labour described the EEC as it was then, as ” the bosses Europe”.
Since then the three main parties in the UK, together with the MSM
have sold out to globalist organisations such as the UN, the WHO, the WEF and of course the EU.
All bought and paid for.
Traditional Labour supporters have
always been patriotic so joining the EEC, EC, EU was always at odds with the traditions of Labour members.
At one time Labour described the EEC as it was then, as ” the bosses Europe”.
Since then the three main parties in the UK, together with the MSM
have sold out to globalist organisations such as the UN, the WHO, the WEF and of course the EU.
All bought and paid for.
This turn to the right in many EU member states may also presage the EU moving further to the right.
This would make the Labour leadership preference for rejoining even more absurdly at odds with the traditions of its members.
Why is everything just vaugely small”c” conservative described
as ” far right ” now ?
The people who are throwing around this term are often supporters of Zelenskyy’s real live Nazis in Ukraine.
Why is everything just vaugely small”c” conservative described
as ” far right ” now ?
The people who are throwing around this term are often supporters of Zelenskyy’s real live Nazis in Ukraine.
I am looking to Germany as a harbinger of what happens to an advanced economy which dramatically inflates its energy prices.
It may not be well known, but the Biden administration is pushing through similar measures (such as impossible emissions caps on fossil fuel power production and requiring car manufacturers to overproduce electric vehicles). The US could well be on its way a decade or two behind whatever happens in Germany.
Will this sort of insanity eventually wake up an apparently slumbering populace? I’m really not sure.
I am looking to Germany as a harbinger of what happens to an advanced economy which dramatically inflates its energy prices.
It may not be well known, but the Biden administration is pushing through similar measures (such as impossible emissions caps on fossil fuel power production and requiring car manufacturers to overproduce electric vehicles). The US could well be on its way a decade or two behind whatever happens in Germany.
Will this sort of insanity eventually wake up an apparently slumbering populace? I’m really not sure.
not in nu britn hewkay… sadly… we just have our own brand of National Socialists .. in the true meaning of the term aka Conservatives and Labour and Lib dem
not in nu britn hewkay… sadly… we just have our own brand of National Socialists .. in the true meaning of the term aka Conservatives and Labour and Lib dem
The author asserts that “British Rejoiners are still pretending not to notice, but there’s little doubt that the continental Right is back in a big way. “
But he ignores the fact that British “Leavers” are pretending not to notice that none of these Right wing populist parties wants to quit the the EU.
Of course they don’t, because Euro membership makes leaving the EU effectively impossible this side of an economic crisis leading to the collapse of the Euro. But they do want to transform the EU from the progressive, top-down globalist club so beloved of Remainers.
Which of course we could have helped do had we not stropped off.
Well we hadn’t got much traction in 43 years, and our own elite was damn unlikely to try much harder.
Hmm not sure that holds up to much scrutiny SW. The Single Market was driven strongly by Thatcher. Many of the rules we helped design, and even when some things we didn’t like emerged we negotiated plenty of opt outs and vetos. One of the reasons we haven’t just junked the c4.5k EU laws is we helped design them and they are still applicable making their universality easier for Business.
Now there were some things that needed further reform and the Article flags how right wing parties/Govts in EU may well have given us plenty of allies to push forward changes. Opportunity lost.
Hmm not sure that holds up to much scrutiny SW. The Single Market was driven strongly by Thatcher. Many of the rules we helped design, and even when some things we didn’t like emerged we negotiated plenty of opt outs and vetos. One of the reasons we haven’t just junked the c4.5k EU laws is we helped design them and they are still applicable making their universality easier for Business.
Now there were some things that needed further reform and the Article flags how right wing parties/Govts in EU may well have given us plenty of allies to push forward changes. Opportunity lost.
Why would we? Rather than try to reform the unreformable, it was much more sensible for us to get out of the mess and leave them to it. How would it have been better to stay on in the mess, outnumbered by supporters of a supranational state that most British people don’t want (and voted accordingly in 2016 when finally our opinion was asked for).
Much more sensible? A viewpoint that increasingly looks flaccid.
Much more sensible? A viewpoint that increasingly looks flaccid.
Well we hadn’t got much traction in 43 years, and our own elite was damn unlikely to try much harder.
Why would we? Rather than try to reform the unreformable, it was much more sensible for us to get out of the mess and leave them to it. How would it have been better to stay on in the mess, outnumbered by supporters of a supranational state that most British people don’t want (and voted accordingly in 2016 when finally our opinion was asked for).
Which of course we could have helped do had we not stropped off.
Of course they don’t, because Euro membership makes leaving the EU effectively impossible this side of an economic crisis leading to the collapse of the Euro. But they do want to transform the EU from the progressive, top-down globalist club so beloved of Remainers.
The author asserts that “British Rejoiners are still pretending not to notice, but there’s little doubt that the continental Right is back in a big way. “
But he ignores the fact that British “Leavers” are pretending not to notice that none of these Right wing populist parties wants to quit the the EU.