March 1, 2024 - 7:13am
And so Rochdale was handed the result no one in mainstream politics wanted: the election of George Galloway. After securing a majority of more than 6,000, he will return to Parliament on Monday after more than a nine-year absence.
For Labour, this will feel like a catastrophe made out of a cakewalk. Rochdale should have been comfortable for them, but poor timing and poor decisions fumbled it. They could hardly help that the election, in a seat with a large Muslim population, came during the party’s internal debates about Starmer’s approach to Israel — but choosing a candidate they then had to un-endorse was a clear cock-up.
The result is a shock for Starmer and a sign of a new emerging weakness. Galloway pledged to run more candidates for his Workers Party in the general election, likely targeting more seats with significant Muslim votes. He wants to exploit Labour’s division in Gaza, and harness disillusionment on the Left with the party’s stance. It’s unclear whether he can build the momentum required, but it will be a new worry for a bunch of Labour MPs who were expecting to coast to victory.
Galloway’s return will also spread worry across the political spectrum. After all, he has always been a turbulent force. He was expelled from Labour for calling on British troops to mutiny in Iraq, before becoming a serial exploiter of tense by-elections. Since then he has advocated on behalf of the Iranian government, Bashar Al-Assad and Vladimir Putin. In 2009, he even appeared in public handing wads of cash to Hamas (before it was proscribed). Once again he has seized a platform, much to the chagrin of the political establishment.
More than that, however, his victory shows the possible benefits of harnessing divisions and community blocs. Rochdale is a classic northern industrial town, where poverty and social issues are rife. Yet the defining issue in this by-election was a foreign policy matter Britain is only tangentially involved in. Galloway’s campaign was based on his long-standing criticism of Israel and support for the Palestinian cause. His success, again, gives succour to the idea that new factions are emerging in British politics and can be swayed by community tensions.
Above all, Rochdale is a triumph for a sort of anti-politics. Galloway will go back to Westminster as a lone, radical voice pursuing his pet agenda of attacking Israel and many of Britain’s other allies. In the meantime, it seems likely he will serve the people of Rochdale poorly: last time he was an MP, the only representatives with worse attendance records were abstentionist Sinn Fein’s politicians and an MP who’d died.
Even so, it is Labour that has been left most red-faced. Starmer now faces very real questions about how his party machine ended up in such a mess. The broad legacy, however, is that once again Galloway has shown that the worst instincts in politics can be played successfully. And here, perhaps Starmer’s only silver lining is that every party must now consider how to curb them.
John Oxley is a corporate strategist and political commentator. His Substack is Joxley Writes.
Mr_John_Oxley
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SubscribeLabour absolutely deserved this! They are a bunch of bumbling incompetents!
For a by-election in a constituency such as Rochdale, the postal vote can be crucial. Gorgeous George’s majority was 6,000 , but the number of postal votes was 8,000. Postal votes can be harvested by “community leaders” who can then use them as bargaining chips. I would like to know whether a disproportionate number of postal votes went to Gorgeous George.
“Vote early and vote often” as the unofficial motto of Tower Hamlets Labour Party goes.
any evidence for this claim?
Galloway got 40% of the vote in a seat which is 20% Muslim, according to the 2021 census.
So either there is a huge pro-Palestinian non-Muslim vote or a colossally disproportionate difference in turnout.
If so, how and why?
There is a huge pro-Palestine non-Muslim vote. Outside of the right wing bubble lots of Brits sympathise with Palestine.
I suspect once you leave the leftie worlds of academia and the white collar public sector, a great many do not.
10% Pro Israel
20% Pro Palestine
20% Don’t know
50% Both as bad as each other (or words to that effect)
Last polls I saw that was the rough breakdown of feeling in the UK in regards to that area
Hi Jeff. There is a strange coincidence in the numbers at the election. The turnout percentage was 39.7% and Gorgeous George’s perentage share of the vote was also 39.7% (12,335 votes). I have not crunched the numbers, but several reputable sites says the same thing. So, taking those two percentages as correct, Gorgeous got 39.7% of 39.7% of the total electorate voting for him. That means that 15.8% of the electorate in Rochdale voted for Gorgeous George. So he could have got that proportion of the vote even if no non-muslim voted for him.
I hate concidences, so I just checked the numbers. So, the electorate was 78,909 in the last election. With a turnout of 39.7%, that means approximately 31,327 people voted. Of those 31,327, 39.7% voted for George, i.e. 12,335.
I thought that too.
On a very low turnout. Labour voters and Tory voters mostly stayed at home, letting George back with a low number of actual votes. Simples
The turnout was quite high for a by election. Stop this “very low turnout” nonsense. The same lie the major party politicians are trying to peddle. Anything other than face up to reality and their culpability for this outcome.
The turnout was 39.7%. That is very low. At the last general election the turnout was 60.1%. That in itself was fairly low by General Election standards.
Galloway scored (coincidental figure) 39.7% of the votes cast, that is, 15.8% of the votes cast, thus he got in on under 16% of the potential available votes.
So:
1) The turnout was low, even for a by-election, though I did not say that. The party leaders are factually correct.
2) Mr Galloway scored more than anybody else and that is the nature of democracy. More voters wanted him than wanted anybody else, and leaving aside the small minority away or sick, those who did not turnout presumably did not care if he won.
3) It is always good to have mavericks in the Commons; they speak for people and causes that otherwise do not get heard.
How predictable! Two of your own statements in the article give the game away:
“the result no one in mainstream politics wanted”
“Above all, Rochdale is a triumph for a sort of anti-politics.”
Combine that with Galloway’s well-known “two cheeks of the same *rs*” allusion about Sunak and Starmer.
Galloway has won more votes than Labour, the Tories, the LibDems and Reform combined. An independent came second.
A growing section of the electorate is sick to death of the mainstream parties, aka, ‘the uniparty’ and ‘politics as usual’, where they are given no electoral input on any issue that matters.
Meanwhile, politicians obsess about the fact that the public is waking up to what has been done to them over recent years and seeking protection from them by accelerating our descent into a totalitarian state.
A vote for Galloway is hardly a vote against authoritarianism.
I’m surprised Mr Jewell’s comment has received so many down votes.
I had assumed that Mr Galloway’s election is the result mainly of his celebrity and, as Mr Jewell says, the growing dislike amongst the electorate of the mainstream parties.
It seems odd to me that saying this is so unacceptable to unherd readers.
Galloway’s election is entirely to do with garnering the strong local Muslim anti-Israel vote, once the Labour candidate had been disowned by his party.
A loathsome character but always box office, his presence in parliament will be excruciating yet entertaining.
It also seems to demonstrate that with the right message the electorate will swing in an instant, given the mediocrity of the main parties – Reform are not going to achieve that, all they will do is dilute the Tory vote and let in Labour.
A loathsome character but always box office, his presence in parliament will be excruciating yet entertaining.
You are talking about Galloway? If you hadn’t said “Parliament”, I would have thought you were talking about Trump.
I guess there are many parallels with their anti-establishment persona. Politics needs people like this to shake things up.
“Reform are not going to achieve that, all they will do is dilute the Tory vote and let in Labour”
I feel that particularly up here in the north, this is someting of a misunderstanding. I, like a lot of people I know, am left-wing economically, but right-wing culturally. We are traditional Labour voters who voted for Brexit and are increasingly disconnected from the metropolitan, London-focussed, identitarian Labour party.
Many people around here lent their votes to the tories in 2019 to “get Brexit done”, and because Johnson seemed to understand the desperate need for investment and “levelling up”. But now the the Empire has fully Struck Back, so to speak, and the tories have gone back to their old ways, those lent votes have been recalled.
For me the dilemma is not whether I vote Tory or Reform, but whether I vote Labour or Reform. Do I risk all the ridiculous excesses that are likely to come with a new-new-Labour government, or do I risk letting the Tories have four more years to grind the country into the dirt and line their pockets by voting Reform?
A truly awful choice.
There will be no good choices in the GE. UK politics is a wasteland.
Reform is no left wing option, as its working class voters would find out if they ever won power. They are small state/no welfare state libertarians, run by very wealthy people, very much like Trump and Co in the U.S(turkeys voting etc)
I don’t necessarily disagree with you in terms of their economics, and I think that speaks to the desperation and exhaustion of people who are thinking of voting for them, on both sides of the aisle.
Having been thoroughly ignored by the mainstream parties for thirty odd years, being repeatedly dismissed and belittled when they show concern for their communities, their culture and their way of life, people are pushed further to the extremes just to get what they would consider a moderate solution.
I see them as something akin to the Big Red Button of politics, the one that you know you aren’t supposed to press, that may blow up spectacularly in your face, but as nothing else is working, you think ‘well damn it, I may as well push it and see what happens!’
There is absolutely no chance of the Tories winning the election. Make your protest vote with a clear conscience, as I will.
I’m not at all impressed by George Galloway… yet he serves a useful lesson.
If any political party considers a constituency to be ‘theirs’ it often degenerates into machine politics. Where politicians operate by dominating the political landscape. The “machine” gets its name from its ability to reliably, even mechanically, turn out the votes needed to get its members elected and its measures passed.
Until, of course, the electorate pivot, as in the switch to the SNP in Scotland, or Galloway in Rochdale, the votes of the Red Wall, or even Brexit.
Imagine if politicians had to do more than wear the rosette of the correct colour. Who knows what might be achieved.
The lowest number of votes cast for the winning candidate in any parliamentary election in Rochdale since the introduction of universal adult suffrage in 1918. And this despite thousands of poorly controlled postal votes. The grip of the mainstream parties is weakening rapidly. Galloway couldn’t win in most constituencies. But local independents like Tully could start to win in lots of places.
Congratulations to the new MP for Galloway (incorporating small parts of Gaza)
I feel certain he will work tirelessly to enrich and improve the life of his constituent
Commiserations to the people of Rochdale
I’ve never been able to figure out how much Galloway is a genuine hard-left crank who hates the UK, hates the West and hates Israel or how much he is a self-aggrandising grifter who leverages his appeal to voters who hate the UK, hate the West and hate Israel.
I think he’s both, but I’m not sure in what proportions.
Modern leftists are by their nature hateful and narcissistic people, hating something gives their life meaning and purpose which their life is devoid of, as well self-worth that that they themselves lack. They also crave affirmation and approval from those around them, which is why they are attracted to left wing political movements and organizations, which provide such things. It also explains why George and other leftists are so fixated on Muslim’s, they see see them a source of identity and self-esteem, but they have a very paternalistic and conceding attitude toward them. The see them more as ideological embodiments of their beliefs then as real people with wants and needs or desires, and tend to deny them any kind of agency which lead them which infantize them and thus never hold them responsible for anything. In their minds they only exist meet their ego needs, and working with how fulfill those needs. What they are doing is they are projecting their aspirations upon them as well a other groups(victim group of the week) they purport to help, but they have no respect for them and tend be dismissive of their abilities, thus why they need to be “helped”. Its Communal narcissism 101. The Islamists understand these people for the selfish fools that they are and play then like a fiddle.
Your introductory sentence seems an extreme generalisation re. leftists being narcissists. What is your evidence?
Do you think of Donald Trump as a narcissist?
Trump is a textbook narcissist, full stop.
Ending a point with “full stop” is so unintelligent; besides which, you’ve just illustrated JJ’s point against yourself!
The only wisdom Starmer’s and his mob display normally is not to make enemies of the Muslims. With his Gaza stance he has. They don’t endorse marxism, woke or LGBQ whatever. I think I’d sooner have them on side than a bunch of student fairies parading behind a rainbow flag telling me and my children what to read or think. Islam UK is a 5-6% minority, it’s the white left progressives who recruit them. Turn it round. The latter will be the first to go should Islam, or Russia, prosper. Streeting, confine yourself to bungalows.
I cannot believe even Sunak will miss this open goal!
Starmer pressurised the Speaker of the House to change parliamentary procedure to assuage the mob. This is unforgivable (parliament never gave into pressure from Nazi Germany or the IRA but here is Lindsay Hoyle – on Sir Kier’s instruction – is bending to the will of a few left-wing/Muslim radicals). The Speaker of the House must go!
Once he has gone, the spotlight turns on Starmer. He cannot be seen to appease this mob. Otherwise he will be known forever more as a coward. (I suspect this description is actually apt. He does seem to be a bottomless type, a triangulator). This will lead to him losing the general election.
But now old George Galloway gives him a problem from the other side! He will amplify the mob’s voice and Labour MPs will come under pressure to defy their leader.
Which way will Sir Kier go?
It’s the old Big Tent problem for Labour once again – it needs to pretend to be somewhat right-of-centre to win elections but the majority of its MPs are way to the left of the general public. On this issue for instance, I don’t believe 1 in 10 voters gives two hoots about Gaza. Yet for half of the Labour activists, it is the most important issue.
I agree with everything except your first sentence. I can, believe. He’s not a sportsman. Starmer would beat him at chess because a. he would cheat and b. Sunak wouldn’t notice.
Yes that is the worry. I had hoped that Sunak would at least be clever and sharp (give his Winchester schooling and his stellar career). Sadly it doesn’t seem to be the case.
Educated and clever are not always synonymous.
Ain’t that the truth!
“it needs to pretend to be somewhat right-of-centre to win elections but the majority of its MPs are way to the left of the general public.”
On global issues maybe, not so much on basic economic ones.
I was thinking on social issues mainly – immigration, the “trans” issues, “de-colonisation” stuff being taught in schools, putting up the price of fuel to “combat” global warming, Just Stop Oil etc. But also on foreign policy also – particularly the middle east. I suspect most of the public couldn’t give a monkeys about Gaza but it is a huge issue in Labour circles. On economics I think the public is left-ish. I suspect a majority favour the re-nationalisation of utilities, railways and maybe steel. On paper at least.
A good night for protest votes. In second place came independent candidate David Tully with 6,638. Something of an amateur, he actually campaigned on local issues. Surprisingly, the Conservative came third – I thought Ellison might lose his deposit.
If the Tory Party and the Labour Party are the @rse end of democracy, lots of people will enjoy kissing it at the General Election.
Funny way to spell ‘kicking’.
Galloway will make no difference to the wealth and welfare of Rochdale or Gaza. Nor, I dare say, would any of the other candidates.
Based around “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”, I’m hoping Galloway embarrasses Starmer into defeat. After all he’ll have allies in Corbyn, Abbott and Tarry, equally determined to wreak their cold revenge.
As an amateur in both psephology and sociology I’ll hazard an opinion.
39% turnout, G’way got 40 % of that. 15.6% of Rochdale’s electorate voted for Gaza George. As always, there’s only one to blame for our political ills. The voter. Or the not voter. 61% indifference elected him. The Cons got more votes than Labour and an independent more than both. The cry, “a vote for Reform is a vote for Labour” didn’t apply here at all. What other special circumstances await Starmer? He hasn’t fallen over on a beach or crowed ‘Aww right!’ yet. Sunak’s a dead duck. With any luck May’s local elections will finish him off. As the election nears a tenner on either side might be interesting.
People have this habit of getting the govt they deserve instead of the one they want.
“The world never yet beheld such a compound of jobbing, swindling, hypocrisy, and slaughter, as goes to make up the gigantic scheme of villainy called the “British rule in India”. I have a presentment…that God’s chastisement upon us as a nation will come from Hindostan….. ”
-The Liberal statesman and MP for Rochdale, Richard Cobden, 1850.
We were subjected to these cowards even then.
Rochdale has as many serious local problems as anywhere in the U.K. Instead of a serious MP, they get a clown & a grifter who doesn’t care a jot about them.
Agreed. But does it not reflect even more negatively on the other candidates?
Galloway achieved 40% of the votes from a turnout of 40% of the electorate. That means 16% of the electorate voted for him. After the General Election it is unlikely he will still be in Parliament. The fact that 60% of the electorate didn’t bother perhaps says rather more.
Why does George Galloway embody the “worst instincts” in British politics? I can think of much worse instincts than his, including those of privatisation, xenophobia, brutal austerity and tax cuts which favour the rich, not to speak of connivance with the genocide in Gaza. In fact, I say well done Galloway and well done Rochdale.
Centrists need to stop talking. Every time they open their mouth they make me grudgingly like George Galloway just a teeny bit more, even though I have no illusions about the man or like for him.
I’d like a competent right-wing populist party in Britain, but Rochdale proves Reform (6th place!), at least with an insipid Tory boy like Tice at the helm, is not up to the job.