February 27, 2024 - 3:30pm
On Sunday, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the war with Russia — the first official announcement concerning Ukrainian troop losses since December of 2022. Many on social media have expressed scepticism about the figure. But what do the facts say?
Zelensky’s 31,000 figure is certainly at odds with other estimates. Earlier today, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed that Ukraine’s losses amount to 444,000 men. Using a 1:3 ratio of killed to wounded, this would equate to 111,000 deaths. Of course, the Russians have an incentive to inflate their enemy’s losses, so we shouldn’t put much stock in Shoigu’s claim.
Yet even the Americans have given figures far higher than Zelensky’s. Last August, officials told the New York Times that “close to 70,000” Ukrainian soldiers had been killed. Now, we don’t know who these specific functionaries were. Although US policy is to “stand with Ukraine”, some officials may privately favour a dovish strategy and therefore have an incentive to overstate Ukraine’s losses when talking to the media.
The 31,000 figure is also inconsistent with other estimates given by the Ukrainian government. Officials have at various points reported the number of daily troop deaths, with figures ranging from “50–100” to “200–500”. Taking the median of the lower bounds (100) and multiplying by the number of days since the war started yields a figure of 73,300 deaths.
Can we do better than unverifiable estimates put out by officialdom?
Yes, actually. An anonymous website called UALosses has been compiling a database of Ukrainian soldiers killed in the war using publicly available information, such as announcements by local authorities and social media posts by relatives. The database currently has 42,152 entries. As evidence of its reliability, Mediazona manually checked a random sample of 400 entries and found that 96% could be verified. The outlet also concluded that the database contains no more than 500 duplicates.
This provides strong evidence that Zelensky’s figure is an underestimate — to the tune of at least 10,000 deaths. In fact, the website states, “as only data that is available online is considered, the real level of losses is estimated to be considerably higher.”
Another database of Ukrainian soldiers killed in the war (compiled by analysts at the pro-Russian Telegram channel Rybar) is available at the website WarTears. It currently has 69,005 entries. However, these cannot be easily verified as the database does not provide external links.
Interestingly, Mediazona, in collaboration with BBC News Russian, has compiled its own database of Russian soldiers killed in the war, which currently has 44,654 entries. Like UALosses, it states that the “the true death toll is undoubtedly higher.” This suggests the two sides may have sustained a similar number of battlefield deaths, which is not wholly implausible in a war of attrition.
Of course, we don’t know how many entries are missing from each database. Political scientist John Mearsheimer has given theoretical reasons to believe that Ukrainian losses are higher. Russia has far more artillery, which accounts for a large share of battlefield deaths in attrition warfare. And although the attackers typically take more casualties, Ukraine has been on the offensive for much of the last 18 months (in Kharkiv, Kherson and then Zaporizhzhia).
Using a completely different method, I obtained an estimate bigger than any of those discussed so far. Last summer, the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology asked Ukrainians whether any of their friends or relatives had died in the war. Of those questioned, 63% said yes. By combining this figure with analogous figures from a YouGov poll that asked people in different countries whether any of their friends or relatives had died of Covid, along with the actual Covid death rates for those countries, I calculated that up to 188,000 Ukrainians may have died (including civilians).
The figure given by Zelensky is also hard to reconcile with widespread reports of “manpower shortages”. In July of 2022, Ukraine’s Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov stated that the armed forces had a strength of 700,000 men. Why would there now be “manpower shortages” if “only” 31,000 had died?
It is unclear how many Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the war. The true number could be well over 100,000. What we can say is that Zelenksy’s figure of 31,000 is likely to be a substantial underestimate.
Join the discussion
Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber
To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.
Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.
SubscribeNothing in this article substantiates this conclusion. Why would proxy estimates by news organisations be more accurate than the government figures? Why would the Ukrainian government want to downplay the number of soldiers killed? Surely there is a central system of recording combat deaths. It seems far more plausible that the 31k figure is accurate to me.
“Why would the Ukrainian government want to downplay the number of soldiers killed?” To boost morale? To get more military aid from the West?
Seems unlikely to me.
Downplaying casualty numbers would seem very likely to me.
Almost standard practice when one is dealing with a “full scale” war.
I’ve got a bridge to sell you.
It’s still a hell of a leap from
42,152 deaths per UALosses to assert “the true number could be well over 100,000”. Most deaths nowadays end up being referenced online, so undercounting to that extent seems improbable. If anything understating military losses would weaken Zelensky’s case for more Western support. 42,152 is more than 1 in 900 of the population, so at that level it is plausible that 63% would be aware of at least one acquaintance who had been killed. Historically estimates of war casualties have generally been more often revised down rather than up.
It is not just deaths which matter but also those maimed and not able to fight again. That number is likely much higher thereby producing a much higher “attrition” number…which is much more significant.
I was curious about these figures as well. It appears, at least since WW1, that the general rule of thumb has been, one third killed to two thirds injured (what proportion of injured are ‘serious’ I know not). With advances in combat medicine, clearing and triage, that proportion, you would have thought, would have changed significantly over the last century or so ( I think, it was claimed, at Goose Green (Falklands 82) that if a casualty made it to the medical aid station ‘alive’ then he left it alive. A source of some pride).
Yes.
According to the Ukrainian health minister Viktor Ljaschko the number of amputations 2022-23 was >100k. To give some context: WW2 led to approx. 12k amputee veterans in UK. Privately-owned Ottobock, the German world market leader in prosthesis, is growing strongly and expanding heavily in Ukraine (most recent figure for H1 2023: total sales +17%, i.e. the failed summer offensive is not included).
It is an outright disaster. Probably a bigger problem than money or military hardware are soldiers. Ukrainian men are either dead, wounded, abroad or unwilling to fight anymore
As I have posted previously, the WeebUnion estimates suggest 100k killed and 300k overall casualties;
However, the bigger issue for Ukraine, right now, is that they are unable to rotate troops away from the frontline. That means they are stuck, weeks on end, in cold, muddy trenches in 3 – 10 degree weather, with no real sanitation and intermittent supplies.
Without some kind of relief, these men will begin to catch and spread diseases like cholera, dysentery, influenza, … Make no mistake, these diseases can be more deadly than Russian artillery.
As Weeb points out, it is imperative that Ukraine fall back to better fortified positions to allow for some rotation and keep these men alive.
How can this be with the billions that have been sent over there?
Accurate numbers are important of course. Regardless, this war is crippling Ukraine and peace deal is imperative. It’s very likely the U.S. and Britain thwarted a peace deal early in the war, resulting in thousands of unnecessary deaths – maybe one of the most inhumane political decisions in my lifetime.
The most inhumane political decision was to give Putin the green light for an invasion that could have been prevented with the stroke of a pen.
How could it have been “prevented with the stroke of a pen”?
Do you remember the joint US-Ukrainian military exercises held in Ukraine during the Trump presidency? If the same exercises had been held in the winter of 2022, Putin would have sat quietly, like a mouse under a broom.
Do you remember how, during Prigozhin’s rebellion, Putin evaporated in the depths of the Valday’ swamps, and all the security forces in Moscow magically melted into thin air?
Putin is pathologically cowardly, like his entire administrative hierarchy. He becomes impudent only when he is confident in his own safety, which Europe and the US happily guarantee him.
.
By the way, the same logic is present in Western policy both in Ukraine and in the Middle East. Peace! Peace at any price! “Ceasefire now!”
Ukrainians and Israelis understand the currency of this price – their lives. But this is their life, not the comfort of the LGBTQ+ community, so the West is quite happy with this deal.
I acknowledge the merit in what you say (LGBTQ+ bit aside). I have always though that Putin’s heroes must have been Hitler and Stalin. However, the former was way more politically astute than Putin (at least in the early days), and the latter had the courage to stay in Moscow when it counted (and the Wehrmacht and the SS were way more formidable than Wagner).
How do you get to the conclusion that Hitler more politically astute than Putin? I’d say exactly the opposite (which is not to say either of them are nice people!).
Putin is still in power after 20 years, Hitler was dead after 12.
It’s hard to imagine the insanity that you wrote. “Cowardly” Putin practices judo and is not afraid to go one-on-one. It is you who are cowardly hiding behind the backs of the Ukrainians. What the Western world has learned well is to pit people against each other.
The exercises could provoke a third world war. So be glad that this didn’t happen. Russia will not tolerate invaders on its territory. NATO, in an absolutely boorish manner, refused to discuss the security issues raised by Russia. Given the disparate military budgets of NATO and Russia, such an attitude is NATO’s overt preparation for an attack on Russia. And there is no need to lie that NATO is a peaceful organization. Over several decades, NATO troops killed more than 4 million civilians and participated in more than a hundred military conflicts, most of which they initiated.
The simple unalloyed truth is that the USA capitalism, their corporate business wants the vast oil,gas,mineral,rare earth wealth of the WHOLE of Russia plus the fertile land the same way we British decided we wanted all the richness of India,silk,spices,cotton especially cotton WITHOUT PAYING FOR IT then later we wanted all the Tea in China WITHOUT PAYING FOR IT. Now it’s USA turn. That is what this IS ALL ABOUT and all the talk of National Sovereignty,Freedom,Democracy,Free Speech,Freedom of Choice is all ridiculous garbage,a veneer so thin,it’s only fools the stupid,but there are a lot of stupid. Raving now on radio phone ins to send their grandsons off to death. Or are those callers the ones who never got to have sex!
No Jane, it really isn’t!. Try and develop some critical thinking here. Why hasn’t the US invaded Saudi Arabia then? They sell, don’t give away their oil and gas.
Russia hasn’t had any invaders on “its territory” since 1945.
You can certainly legitimately criticise NATO, but where exactly did NATO kill 4 million citizens?
Do you just invent this sort of garbage?.
Putin is a “coward” At least he doesn’t hide in fridges. Zelensky only seems to turn up on the line of battle when it’s assured that no russki shells are going to bust his ass and Biden.couldnt fight his way out of the proverbial paper bag.
Ha ha ha such delusions.
No man lies so much as after a hunt, during a war and before an election.
Bismarck is that you?
Noah Carl has no more idea than any of us here. The idea that this article is a “fact check” is ridiculous. It’s an assembly of speculation.
No real “fact check” could possibly end with this:
“It is unclear how many Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the war. The true number could be well over 100,000. What we can say is that Zelenksy’s figure of 31,000 is likely to be a substantial underestimate.”
“Unclear”, “could be”, “likely”, “substantial”. Nothing is quantified. No confidence level given. No error bars or upper and lower limits. Amateur.
I found the “We asked Ukrainians whether any of their friends and relatives had died in the war” thing interesting. What if two people asked were friends with (or related to) the same war death? Surely that would give rise to a “double up”?
Given that so many media “fact-checks” are nothing of the sort at all, and are merely an opportunity to assert a Ministry of Truth version of events, I found this discussion refreshingly honest.
You can only provide upper / lower limits once you have compared a methodology with solidly established facts – only once we know how many individuals actually died can we determine the error factor in the methodologies “social media reports” and “do you know someone…”.
The Vietnam War is probably the most glaring recent example of the body count metric being used as a propaganda and manipulation tool. We should not fall for it again.
I was in the US artillery in Vietnam. In an equipment bag I found a slide rule that calculated enemy deaths from the number of rounds fired.
Ha.
Surely the number of deaths per artillery shell would be dependent on the artillery shell hitting a position actually containing the enemy?
So the figure is somewhere between the absurdly low 31K and the perhaps too high 500K. At this point, the logical question is how many more must die before a settlement is reached?
No one seriously believes Ukraine will win. No one can even present a credible picture of what “win” would look like. Meantime, millions have fled never to return, the Ukrainian economy is not only hurting but in the case of Polish farmers (perhaps others), creating a new problem.
No one can even present a credible picture of what “win” would look like.
I can: Russian troops out of Ukraine, and Ukraine a member of NATO.
The operative word was “credible”
You may think it is unlikely to be achieved, but that doesn’t mean that it isn’t what a “win” looks like. If you are right about the possibility of achieving that outcome, and the expulsion of Russian troops from Ukraine isn’t possible, then a “win” looks like “Ukraine gives up some territory, and the fighting ends, after which Ukraine joins NATO”.
Fat lot of good that’ll do em.
And can we have your detailed analysis of exactly how they are going to achieve that?
Well, it is unarguably dependent on the West continuing to supply arms to Ukraine. Were it to have been up to me, I would have given Ukraine whatever it wanted from Day 1. Still, I regard “putting Russia back in its box” as an existential task for the Free World.
Give all your money to Jesus for the poor people. Give till it hurts.
As Woodbine Willie said,”Praise the Lord and Pass The Ammunition.
You dont need that money for a new bathroom,Mrs Zelensky needs it more for a shopping blitz in Paris.
We all need a shopping blitz in Paris from to time,it.shouod be a Human Right. You do want to give ALL YOUR MONEY to Ukranian people,sell your house and go live in a shop doorway warmed by the fire of your inner virtue.
This is truly unhinged incomprehensible garbage. You ought to be embarrassed posting it. Any scintilla of meaning – I’m guessing – here? Perhaps, Ukraine has a high level of corruption and its politicians aren’t perfect and have self interest.
In other words, much like Poland in 1939. Which nonetheless didn’t justify the near genocidal and certain attempt to destroy its entire elite by two totalitarian powers.
Of course Russia is well known for its transparency,lack.of corruption, abstemious politicians and good governance!
How given Ukraine population decline and lack of military manpower and all types of supplies? Ukraine population 1992 52 million, 2014 45 million, 2024 estimate 37 million!
Perhaps more to the point Ukraine can’t lose because most will not stop fighting. The various Soviet satellite nations never gave up their national aspirations, even today. Whether Russia can effectively control occupied regions of Ukraine remains unclear. Certainly the occupied regions have been nearly totally destroyed in terms of industry. Few now live in the occupied regions where they struggle to survive; those citizens want peace and don’t care as long as the shelling ends. But the rest of Ukraine will fight on to limit Russian governance.
Ukraine is not Chechen where Russian forces can prevail. But the scorched earth tactic used by Russia may make Ukraine unlivable as the war drags on. It is sad to watch.
Pavlo ain’t fighting,nor are his cousins,uncles or mates. They all.got exemptions. Even his bird Luba ain’t got dragooned into the front line. Watch YouTube channel Pavlo from Ukraine and tell me theres a War on. (Yes I know there is but Pavlos films tell a quite different story to Mainstream media). He loves America.
Maybe a complete coincidence but this 31k dead figure given by Zelensky is very close to the supposed number of dead Gazans in the current war there
Definitely a coincidence. I mean, it’s not as if there could be any overlap.
Most likely this is the number that is RECOGNIZED dead. And for which compensation payments were made to relatives. And everyone else either simply died or went missing. This is a huge difference for the state.