July 20, 2023 - 6:15pm
“Elite overproduction”, which Conservative MP Miriam Cates bemoaned in a recent article for the Daily Telegraph, can be a misleading phrase. After all, it is hard to see how a society could suffer from a surfeit of very able people.
Of course, it makes more sense in its original context. Peter Turchin, who coined the term, explained in an interview with UnHerd that it really refers to overproduction of “elite aspirants”: people who want, and expect, to gain an elite position, but for whom there are insufficient positions available.
Crucially, this definition of “elite” refers purely to status, not ability. It has nothing to say about the character or calibre of the people at the top of the pyramid, or if the process for replenishing their number selects for good characteristics.
Looking at our ever-expanding mediocrat class and its mounting pile of failures, one might argue Britain actually suffers from elite underproduction: either our system produces too few who merit the label “elite”, or it at least keeps them out of public life.
That this should cause problems is much more intuitive: there is nothing more dangerous than a downwardly mobile middle class, whose members have both stronger habits of political organisation and more resources committed to their cause.
In Britain, the most obvious vector for this phenomenon was Tony Blair’s massive expansion of tertiary education. Ever since he first declared his aspiration for 50% of school leavers to go to university, we have funnelled ever more young people into them. This has “shifted the UK to the Left”, as the Telegraph puts it (and as New Labour advisers privately admit was always the intention).
But Cates’s focus on graduates adopting “high-status opinions” misses this initiative’s most damaging effect: the way in which society and the economy have adjusted to artificially inflate the value of degrees.
Many employers now use a 2:1 as a first-stage filter on job applications, even for roles which a generation ago would have been open to school leavers. This locks young people into a vicious cycle, forced onto the higher education debt treadmill just to stand still in economic terms. Not only do they end up effectively paying usurious marginal tax rates due to loan repayments, but it also delays their entry into the world of work by at least three years.
Flat wage growth, not to mention both house prices and rents climbing remorselessly, in turn delays their getting on the housing ladder, or acquiring capital of any sort, by even longer — trapping these people in a twilight late adolescence into their thirties.
Deprived of the opportunity to mature into adulthood, they don’t. Instead of combatting this, British institutions have indulged it. The Government recently faced calls to ban under-25s from carrying passengers in their cars; more seriously, the Scottish Sentencing Council recommends lenient treatment for even serious criminals below that age because “the brain is not fully developed”.
Britain does not have a surplus of elites, then, but instead a surplus of adolescents. All the while, the remorseless march of the degree continues. In the face of a childcare cost crisis, Labour’s Bridget Phillipson proposes to make looking after pre-school-age children a graduate profession. It was only in November that Home Secretary Suella Braverman axed plans to require all police officers to have degrees.
Universities are not geared towards the economy. That’s why we have at once a record number of graduates and a skills crisis. The easiest way to palliate their discontent has been to create passably paid, high-status, low-accountability white-collar jobs in the public sector. What do many of those people do? Generate and service the vast amount of paperwork it takes to do anything productive. Which, in the long run, makes the economic situation even worse.
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SubscribeExcellently put, and in well under 700 words too.
Some years ago, I was in the Barbican in London, for some errand or other. I saw a line of young people, in graduation robes. This was the graduation ceremony for the University of East London. Almost all of the young people came from an ethnic minority. I felt intensely sorry for them, as I knew they were about to get an education they would not enjoy at all – how much their degrees were worth on the jobs market.
Some of these young people might have been very able, and capable of graduating from a better university. But then, careers advice in schools is not always of good quality.
I was witnessing a tragedy – a cheerful, giggling tragedy, but a tragedy from which there is almost no escape.
Excellently put, and in well under 700 words too.
Some years ago, I was in the Barbican in London, for some errand or other. I saw a line of young people, in graduation robes. This was the graduation ceremony for the University of East London. Almost all of the young people came from an ethnic minority. I felt intensely sorry for them, as I knew they were about to get an education they would not enjoy at all – how much their degrees were worth on the jobs market.
Some of these young people might have been very able, and capable of graduating from a better university. But then, careers advice in schools is not always of good quality.
I was witnessing a tragedy – a cheerful, giggling tragedy, but a tragedy from which there is almost no escape.
My hunch is that IA will replace most white collar jobs in the next five years. This could lead to an inversion of the current system with money and status shifting from office workers to skilled manual workers. What happens then to the millions of people currently treading water in consultancy, project management, marketing, finance, HR, PR and accountancy?
Already happening in the US where top plumbers on ip to $300k per annum.
I suspect you are right. I’m not sure quite how to feel about it. If, as I’ve read, something over 62% of high school graduates in the U.S. attend a college or university of some sort, it must be the case that the classes have been significantly dumbed down, therefore the degrees are not meaningful, and this may become evident even to the graduates themselves. If this is coupled with AI taking away low-level white collar jobs, then what is a university education good far, apart from the STEM classes? And the DEI agitators are already doing their best to undermine them.
This is also going to hit women harder than men since they make up the majority of mid and lower level office workers. Ironically the male worker clearing drains that everyone looked down on is in a much more secure position than a HR professional.
Already happening in the US where top plumbers on ip to $300k per annum.
I suspect you are right. I’m not sure quite how to feel about it. If, as I’ve read, something over 62% of high school graduates in the U.S. attend a college or university of some sort, it must be the case that the classes have been significantly dumbed down, therefore the degrees are not meaningful, and this may become evident even to the graduates themselves. If this is coupled with AI taking away low-level white collar jobs, then what is a university education good far, apart from the STEM classes? And the DEI agitators are already doing their best to undermine them.
This is also going to hit women harder than men since they make up the majority of mid and lower level office workers. Ironically the male worker clearing drains that everyone looked down on is in a much more secure position than a HR professional.
My hunch is that IA will replace most white collar jobs in the next five years. This could lead to an inversion of the current system with money and status shifting from office workers to skilled manual workers. What happens then to the millions of people currently treading water in consultancy, project management, marketing, finance, HR, PR and accountancy?
Great essay. Short but insightful. As the author notes, the ever-expanding university grad class has created more credentialization, which is shutting out capable people from decent jobs that really don’t require post-secondary education.
Great essay. Short but insightful. As the author notes, the ever-expanding university grad class has created more credentialization, which is shutting out capable people from decent jobs that really don’t require post-secondary education.
This has “shifted the UK to the Left”, as the Telegraph puts it (and as New Labour advisers privately admit was always the intention).
Has there been any political event in Britain since Gavrilo Princip’s impromptu street theatre that hasn’t shifted the UK to the Left?
The Falklands War.
The 1983 general election
The Miners Strike
The Falklands War.
The 1983 general election
The Miners Strike
This has “shifted the UK to the Left”, as the Telegraph puts it (and as New Labour advisers privately admit was always the intention).
Has there been any political event in Britain since Gavrilo Princip’s impromptu street theatre that hasn’t shifted the UK to the Left?
Of the 2,800,000 higher education students, I am guessing that only a small minority would define themselves as elite or even elite aspirant. For example, of the 48,000 studying media, journalism and communication, I suspect very few aspire to be Polly Toynbee, let alone Rupert Murdoch.
When Alison Rose started out as a NatWest trainee with a history degree from a provincial university was she an elite aspirant who dreamed that one day she might cancel Nigel Farage’s banking facilities on a woke whim.
Are there 48,000 kids studying media, journalism and communication? Ouch. Reality will be ugly for this bunch.
I don’t buy into the idea that AI is going to take away everyone’s job. But ChatGPT writes better than 90% of people in my organization. AI is going to crush media and journalism because writing is all they do – and many of them do it poorly.
Peter, I totally concur with your point that ChatGPT produces well-written, nicely structured documents. But the trouble is that you have to check every “fact” in the document: it is not very reliable. To make matters worse, it is poor at explaining the provenance of what it presents as “facts”. But of course, that is also true of some journalists.
Peter, I totally concur with your point that ChatGPT produces well-written, nicely structured documents. But the trouble is that you have to check every “fact” in the document: it is not very reliable. To make matters worse, it is poor at explaining the provenance of what it presents as “facts”. But of course, that is also true of some journalists.
Jim, those are the numbers proudly presented by the UK Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA):
https://www.hesa.ac.uk/news/19-01-2023/sb265-higher-education-student-statistics/subjects
I don’t buy into the idea that AI is going to take away everyone’s job. But ChatGPT writes better than 90% of people in my organization. AI is going to crush media and journalism because writing is all they do – and many of them do it poorly.
Jim, those are the numbers proudly presented by the UK Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA):
https://www.hesa.ac.uk/news/19-01-2023/sb265-higher-education-student-statistics/subjects
We encourage people basically from primary school to emulate famous celebrities and to change the world. I don’t know how many would explicitly say “I want to be part of the elite”, but that’s what we’re grooming them to want.
Are there 48,000 kids studying media, journalism and communication? Ouch. Reality will be ugly for this bunch.
We encourage people basically from primary school to emulate famous celebrities and to change the world. I don’t know how many would explicitly say “I want to be part of the elite”, but that’s what we’re grooming them to want.
Of the 2,800,000 higher education students, I am guessing that only a small minority would define themselves as elite or even elite aspirant. For example, of the 48,000 studying media, journalism and communication, I suspect very few aspire to be Polly Toynbee, let alone Rupert Murdoch.
When Alison Rose started out as a NatWest trainee with a history degree from a provincial university was she an elite aspirant who dreamed that one day she might cancel Nigel Farage’s banking facilities on a woke whim.
When I taught in Further Education, there was relentless pressure to get students into Universities. Entry requirements were shockingly low, such that you needed to have serious intellectual problems to be turned away. Those that needed special help to cope with level 3 courses (extra time in exams, IT, amanuenses, etc) were guaranteed the same in H.E.
As we all said would happen when Blair’s reforms began to take shape, students would merely face a “21 plus” before dead-end office jobs.
When I taught in Further Education, there was relentless pressure to get students into Universities. Entry requirements were shockingly low, such that you needed to have serious intellectual problems to be turned away. Those that needed special help to cope with level 3 courses (extra time in exams, IT, amanuenses, etc) were guaranteed the same in H.E.
As we all said would happen when Blair’s reforms began to take shape, students would merely face a “21 plus” before dead-end office jobs.
G M Trevelyan ( one of Britin’s greatest historians ) in the 1940s pointed out that expansion of secondary and tertiary education would create an intellectual proletariat.
Standards have been dropping since Oxford stopped requiring undergraduates to pass a Greek paper for entry in 1920 and PPE was started in 1922. The decline in Britain mirrors the expansion of the PPE degree.
What is an elite? A gentleman, lady, a scholar a Renaissance figure? A gentleman knows Latin, gentleman and scholar knows Latin and Greek. A Renaissance ( for example Sir Phillip Sydney, Ralph Bagnold ) figure must be a soldier, scholar, dancer, courtier, musician, poet, athlete, etc.
I suggest G M Trevelyan got it slightly wrong we are producing a lumpen intellectual proletariat because we are not producing people who are scholars and athletes. What is then point of going to university if scholars are not produced?
Ruth Sutherland of The Observer said G Brown’s investment was just an increase in public sector employment in the regions.
What’s a PPE degree?
A qualification in fleecing the taxpayer to supply duff overalls and masks.
What’s a PPE degree?
A qualification in fleecing the taxpayer to supply duff overalls and masks.
G M Trevelyan ( one of Britin’s greatest historians ) in the 1940s pointed out that expansion of secondary and tertiary education would create an intellectual proletariat.
Standards have been dropping since Oxford stopped requiring undergraduates to pass a Greek paper for entry in 1920 and PPE was started in 1922. The decline in Britain mirrors the expansion of the PPE degree.
What is an elite? A gentleman, lady, a scholar a Renaissance figure? A gentleman knows Latin, gentleman and scholar knows Latin and Greek. A Renaissance ( for example Sir Phillip Sydney, Ralph Bagnold ) figure must be a soldier, scholar, dancer, courtier, musician, poet, athlete, etc.
I suggest G M Trevelyan got it slightly wrong we are producing a lumpen intellectual proletariat because we are not producing people who are scholars and athletes. What is then point of going to university if scholars are not produced?
Ruth Sutherland of The Observer said G Brown’s investment was just an increase in public sector employment in the regions.
The photo at the top. Yikes! Can anyone else see that and hear the cackling laugh of Skeletor?
I thought everyone knew that Skeletor was really the antisemitic former MP Chris Williamson.
Don’t know why the downvotes, I had a chuckle!
Don’t know why the downvotes, I had a chuckle!
I thought everyone knew that Skeletor was really the antisemitic former MP Chris Williamson.
The photo at the top. Yikes! Can anyone else see that and hear the cackling laugh of Skeletor?
Given the Bell curve of IQ, why are we sending so many to universities. In the 1960s 5% went to university, 1% got first class degrees which made those an intellectual elite. Now it appears some universities award firsts to about 1/3rd of their students (some 40% of the age cohort). Unsurprisingly these degrees don’t confer the status of a 1960s 1st class degree.
Given the Bell curve of IQ, why are we sending so many to universities. In the 1960s 5% went to university, 1% got first class degrees which made those an intellectual elite. Now it appears some universities award firsts to about 1/3rd of their students (some 40% of the age cohort). Unsurprisingly these degrees don’t confer the status of a 1960s 1st class degree.
Universities are no longer for education, they are industries.
Universities are no longer for education, they are industries.
The answer is to encourage far more apprenticeships which can lead to HNC, HND and Degrees where those qualifications are needed post apprenticeship.
The answer is to encourage far more apprenticeships which can lead to HNC, HND and Degrees where those qualifications are needed post apprenticeship.
All true, but they self identify as elite hence the epic sense of entitlement, etc.
All true, but they self identify as elite hence the epic sense of entitlement, etc.
Our elites are wonderfully narcissistic. They exist everywhere in both the public and private sector. But they are completely ineffective and do not hold the respect of the ‘non-elite’ at all.
Our elites are wonderfully narcissistic. They exist everywhere in both the public and private sector. But they are completely ineffective and do not hold the respect of the ‘non-elite’ at all.