November 2, 2023 - 6:00pm
The latest Des Moines Register poll of potential Iowa caucus voters illustrates a strategic challenge for Ron DeSantis’s faltering presidential campaign: he risks being caught in a pincer movement between Donald Trump and Nikki Haley. With 43% of the vote, Trump retains his hold on much of the GOP grassroots. Tied with DeSantis at 16%, Haley has consolidated support among many Trump-sceptical suburban and college-educated voters. DeSantis thus finds himself being pressed by both sides. A recent strategic pivot might help him change this dynamic, but it will require considerable nimbleness.
The first iteration of the DeSantis campaign focused mostly on trying to outflank Trump from the political Right. The Florida Governor targeted his media strategy at Right-wing television and podcasts, and he initially focused on trying to peel away Trump’s base. This approach ended up alienating moderate voters (perhaps the slice of the GOP electorate most open to a non-Trump), and the former president’s avalanche of indictments prompted many Republican voters to rally around him.
Now down in the polls, DeSantis has broadened his media strategy, appearing on programmes such as Meet the Press and Real Time with Bill Maher. He used to soft-pedal his criticisms of Trump, but now he draws more forceful contrasts. Some of these distinctions concern policy (such as coronavirus, where DeSantis was an early critic of lockdown measures), but he also argues that a second Trump term would bring about the same White House chaos that undermined the first one. What’s more, the DeSantis campaign now regularly shares videos of Trump’s gaffes and moments of apparent confusion on the campaign trail.
While this kind of “normie” pivot might have been more effective when DeSantis was in the high 20s in national polls rather than the low teens, it still may have helped stop the bleeding. He has remained fairly level in national polling averages recently. Leaning further into the strategy of appealing to centre-right voters, rather than core Trump supporters, might give DeSantis a chance of escaping the Trump-Haley pincer.
Polling in Iowa, South Carolina and other early primary states indicates that Trump has more locked-in supporters, though even a number of his voters say they could change their minds. The fluidity of support for non-Trumps means that both DeSantis and Haley can pick up support from the other’s coalition, which is why we’re likely to witness a personal battle between them in the early stages of the campaign.
While DeSantis is most famous for his culture war battles and vanguard efforts to reopen Florida during the pandemic, other parts of his record as Governor could play well with the college-educated suburbanites who have flocked to Haley. He boosted pay for teachers and police, led environmental efforts on the Everglades, and partnered with Democrats to exempt diapers and other necessities for children from the state sales tax. In a recent New Hampshire stump speech, DeSantis addressed the financial challenges facing young people. That’s the kind of message that plays well with white-collar voters, as well as speaking to the concerns of many populists.
Though Trump led as the first choice of Iowa caucus voters in the Des Moines Register poll, the candidate “footprints” of Trump and DeSantis (combining “first choice”, “second choice” and “actively considering”) were identical — and significantly higher than Haley’s. One poll detail underlines DeSantis’s strategic leverage: 41% of his supporters said that Trump was their second choice, but only 12% of Haley’s voters had Trump as a second choice. If DeSantis dropped out, Trump’s lead in Iowa could very likely grow, but Haley leaving the field would likely narrow Trump’s lead. This suggests that Haley currently has a lower ceiling with the Republican electorate.
There are hints that Trump is still wary about DeSantis. A Trump-aligned Super PAC just rolled out another $900,000 on anti-DeSantis ads in Iowa, and he will still not appear on a debate stage with the Florida Governor. In a new video, Trump preemptively accused his primary rivals of trying to “cheat” in the Iowa caucuses. Those are not signs of untouchable confidence. But the ex-president still enjoys a large polling lead, and a divided field could keep any opposition from unifying.
In any case, DeSantis’s situation reveals a broader theme. In 2024, the most plausible path beyond Trump in the GOP involves some fusion of populist-conservative concerns and a mode of politics that appeals to middle-of-the-road voters. If no candidate can find that distinctive mix, Trump’s primary lead could become even more entrenched.
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SubscribeI’m a huge DeSantis fan but he can’t compete in a Performative landscape. He’s a doer not a talker. He’s by far the best politician in America but he’s sandwiched between the Trump Media and Mainstream Media attacks. They can portray him any way they want and he’s powerless to stop their branding.
The last I checked, more dollars were spent on negative attack ads against DeSantis than Biden and Trump combined. He has no choice but to go directly at Trump now because his political life depends on it. If Trump smells weakness he will pounce but if DeSantis doesn’t back down than Trump will ultimately respect him and he won’t be permanently tarred with Republican voters in the future. DeSantis is ultimately little threat to Trump because nearly all DeSantis supporters will still vote Trump.
This is all about character for DeSantis now. Does he hang or does he fold.
Barring a miracle, Ron DeSantis is not going to win the nomination. Does it matter whether he hangs or folds? How is his character in play?
To me it does. I would like to see him run in 2028.
His character is in play because he can either keep grinding til the end or kiss the ring. I think he’ll grind.
DeSantis made a huge tactical mistake by focusing too heavily on the culture war issues – except immigration. Immigration and the economy are the Republicans’ tickets to win the election. Even most Donkeys realize that Biden is doing a terrible job on these and are not anxious for 4 more years of demented SloJo. A moderate stance on abortion and ignoring the trans nonsense is the best way to avoid those traps.
Unfortunately DeSantis is not getting good advice.
When the word “culture war” is used its a propaganda term the left foisted on the general public in order to prevent resistance to their institutional capture. It mystifies people into believing that the “Culture War” is something the Right started when in fact, the Right is simply responding. The Left’s whole goal is to provoke the Right into a poor response that the Left can frame as Anti-X and seize the Moral Highground. Provocation is their whole game.
The Left seized the institutions by intertwining law, politics, economics, entertainment and education with culture. So culture is embedded in everything now. To not engage in cultural analysis is to hand the Left everything they want.
Now you could make the case that public awareness has sufficiently caught onto progressive mysticism and shift to simply defunding nonsensical endeavors but since the Left controls the Media, it could just reframe any spending cuts as an attack on the oppressed “underserved.”
There is no way to engage the Left without tackling culture head on.
The smart move would have been to stay out and endorse Trump. Now he’s tarnished by connections with the never Trump RINOs.
Is that not total submission? I like Trump but he isn’t entitled to the nomination. Competition shouldn’t bother anybody unless they’re Anti-Capitalist.
One of the under-investigated aspects of the Republican pres field situation is the question of where will prospective never Trumpers go when their candidates drop out, e.g. Tim Scott and Asa and Pence etc. Their numbers might be small but it’s conceivable that they will migrate to DeSantis or Haley, as their numbers grow maybe Trump voters will migrate too.
Opinion pieces like this about elections always make me chuckle. “He could do this. Or he could do that. But he’s probably going to lose anyway.” What do we learn from this? The only value I can see is entertainment.
Presidential elections in this country just drag on too long. Why can’t we have start campaigns, have a primary election in a month, then have a general election in a month? Would the system be worse off or better?
At least then we wouldn’t have time for this kind of unimportant musing.
So presumably you don’t read the articles promising to tell you “All you need to know about Trump’s nth court case and its possible electoral ramifications” either?
It’s not a normie election. And also, De Santis isn’t a normie. At one time I thought he might be, but he has already lost on that battleground.
However bad you might think the leaders on offer in the UK may be, you need only look across at the US and reflect that we haven’t completely lost our minds just yet.
It’s too much to expect sanity in US elections these days.
I think a lot of us on the conservative and libertarian side were dubious about Mr Trump but a few months ago but now wish to give him another spin to work with Saudi, her regional partners and give the Abraham Accords another spin on Israel’s behalf.
This wasn’t the case a few months ago, but DeSantis simply doesn’t have the cachet or life experience to stand up to Washington neoconservatism who prioritise war with Russia for the benefit of the arms corporations over a new peace process in the Middle East.
Set DeSantis aside for 2028 or 2032. His support for restricting abortion (In Florida: none after six weeks) makes him unelectable in 2024. Whoever carries women’s votes will win in 2024.