March 1, 2024 - 4:15pm
As Keir Starmer gazes upon the wreckage of the Rochdale by-election he must be wondering what to do next. Should he give in to his internal critics and soften Labour’s line on issues like international relations and immigration? Or should he double down and make a point of defying the Labour Left?
If he’s in search of inspiration he could turn to this week’s Financial Times interview with the Danish Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen. Arguably the toughest leader in Western Europe, she’s already famous — or infamous — for her hardline immigration policies, which include Singapore-style limits on the number of immigrants in any particular neighbourhood.
As for defence policy, she believes that Europe must “step up and scale up” its military capabilities in the face of a threat which she sees as coming from Russia as a whole, not just Putin. She’s clear that sacrifices must be made, warning that “freedom comes with a price.” If we devote more to defence, then we must devote less to other priorities including welfare: “you cannot spend your penny, or your dollar, or your euro, or your krone two times.”
Margaret Thatcher would approve, and yet Denmark’s Iron Lady is not a conservative but — like Starmer — a social democrat.
The two leaders start from different positions, of course. Frederiksen did not have an easy path to power: in 2019 she eked a narrow victory at the head of a less-than-reliable Left-wing coalition. Starmer, on the other hand, is set for a landslide win and only has his own party to worry about.
But that’s where his comfortable ride ends. In office, he’ll realise there’s no money left, but endless urgent priorities to spend it on. What’s more, he may find himself moving into Downing Street just as Donald Trump returns to the White House — which would mean an immediate crisis for Nato given Trump’s disdain for the transatlantic alliance.
Unlike Tony Blair, who could afford to massively increase spending on public services while simultaneous embroiling Britain in wars beyond the boundaries of Europe, Starmer will be forced to make hard choices from the very beginning.
He must therefore decide between three approaches. Either he can govern in denial of the constraints he’s under (like Liz Truss); or he can muddle through ineffectually (like Rishi Sunak); or he can lean into adversity and make himself a tough leader for tough times (like Frederiksen).
Immigration is perhaps the most immediate test. On becoming prime minister, Starmer could scrap the Rwanda scheme, but would then come under intense pressure to stop the small boats by other means. As for legal immigration, he’ll either have to bring about a drastic cut in the record numbers or explain how UK housing stock and public services can support millions of extra people over the coming decade. It’s becoming clear that the current rate of population increase is financially unsustainable, but the emergency brake required in response would put Starmer on a collision course with factions of his own party.
Again, the Frederiksen example is instructive. Her party supported her strict immigration policies, but Danish coalition politics left her vulnerable to other parties such as the Social Liberals, the Green Left and the Red-Green Alliance. Rather than juggle with those balls, Frederiksen used her second election victory in 2022 to drop her Left-wing allies and form a coalition government with two parties from the centre and centre-Right.
Could something analogous happen with Starmer? If things get tough, could he end up relying on a centrist block of MPs to push through unpopular, but necessary, measures?
Of course, his first choice would be to rely on a Left-ish, woke-ish and united Labour Party. But if things get rough, his ideological preferences may well come second to his preference for power.
Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.
peterfranklin_
Join the discussion
Join like minded readers that support our journalism by becoming a paid subscriber
To join the discussion in the comments, become a paid subscriber.
Join like minded readers that support our journalism, read unlimited articles and enjoy other subscriber-only benefits.
SubscribeTrump’s “disdain” for NATO is easily alleviated. The member nations simply need to live up to their pledges. Not radical stuff. Otherwise, what is Starmer running to do other than occupying 10 Downing? Every other paragraph is filled with ‘defying the Labour Left” or being “on a collision course with factions of his own party.”
There is no perfect in politics. There is seldom even a good. Most people would settle for basic competence in govt doing what it’s supposed to do, not veering outside of its lane.
But if things get rough, his ideological preferences may well come second to his preference for power. —> Then he is the wrong man for the job and so is anyone else with such a preference. Long ago, economist Milton Friedman said (paraphrasing) that a successful political climate relied on it being advantageous for the wrong people to do the right things. Without that, the “right people” won’t do the right things, either, because they’ll be voted out.
Starmer will have a vote of no confidence against him, the second after he tried to do something the Left don’t like.
That is doubtful. If NATO is about short-term US profits, like Trump seems to think, then US protection will only last until Russia gives a better offer. Who would pay a lot for a security company that is likely to break the contract if you get a break-in?
”Trump’s “disdain” for NATO is easily alleviated. The member nations simply need to live up to their pledges.”
NO – no way in He** can this happen. EU is DE-industrialized. Amazon will not deliver a military if ordered – and it would take 30 years to train the engineers and machinists and chemical engineers and metallurgists and make the steel works and coal mines and power plants to make an army of weapons – Impossible. Done, Over.
Not only that but you Brits swapped a military for your tic-tocking NHS. Do you think you would get rid of your foreign NHS army of workers to form up an army of soldiers? – because you cannot have both.
Cut the krap – no spending 3% will give you a Military. Not spending 5% will. You are fat and decadent and a service Industry base – you cannot become a ferocious Military power. Toy are not Bulldogs, you are Chihuahuas with skin issues and dizzy spells.
Actually – just invite Russia into NATO, problem solved. That is actually what I would do. Russia should be a trading partner – they are not the USSR you idiot Politicos. They are more Classic Russian Tsarists, Orthodox Christian, Nationalist and have materials to trade – which the West needs.
They need to be on our side – NOT on China’s side.
Starmer has already shown he can’t control the woke left of his party, even though they know they need to be on their best behaviour and not upset the apple cart before the election. If he thinks the constituency parties have been selecting their candidates wisely and he will have a new influx of sensible non woke MPs that would remain loyal to him, he is going to be very disappointed.
Economically he won’t be any different to the Tories because the money won’t be there and debt is already maxed out. All he will do is try to deflect from the failure to do anything about the economy by introducing more woke cr*p backed by “hate speech” laws.
By the sound of it, one can only hope!
To have a moderate, social-democratic leader who was prepared to drastically curtail immigration to sustainable levels and reinvigorate our threadbare armed forces sounds, sadly, like wildest fantasy territory to my jaded ears
In the event of winning the General Election could Starmer rely on a ‘united Labour Party’? Or will he suffer the shortest political honeymoon period since Liz Truss?
I suspect there is no room to manoeuver between trying something economically radical and trying to keep ‘steady as she goes’.
Everything hinges on how many zealot Corbyinstas still fill the backbenches..and what the unseen new kids selected by the Starmer Machine believe in. I find it very hard to imagine a vast chort of Blairite centre right hardnuts emerging. Even the Tories are 60% woke progressive and utterly useless. I fear Labour cling to statism, identitarianism, class war, eco nuttery.
That sounds almost impossible in the UK with its two-party first-past-the-post system. Mette Fredeiksen could do it in Denmark with its proportional system because 1) being tough on immigration is pretty much consensus in Denmark, with only Momentum, Lib-Dem and Greens (or their equivalent) being pro-immigrant.2) the equivalent of Momentum and the Corbynistas were in a different party, 3) she had the option of ditching the left and governing with the support of centre-right partners instead, In the UK the outer wings of politics (Momentum, UKIP) can hold the government to ransom and aim for running the country because they are indispensable if you want to win and there is no alternative. In Denmark neither Corbyn, nor Thatcher, nor most likely the Boris would be able to get enough allies to get into power.
A man who kneels for criminals overseas is too weak to take hard decisions. Expect him to double down on racial politicking. One example is Labour’s proposed Racial Equality Bill which will systematise ethnicity-based public procurement policies to allow inner city ‘community leaders’ to be bribed out of public funds and limit rioting.
Starmer and Labour will reintroduce sanity into British politics after the clown car administrations that the Tories have inflicted on the nation.
Like any leader he will have to manage the various factions within his party but he’s done that pretty successfully up to now. He will effectively clear up the horrendous mess the Tories have left, unite the nation behind progressive polices and lead Britain into the sunny uplands.
In the meantime the swivel eyed loons will take over the Tory party and we will have the highly amusing spectacle of them tearing themselves apart trying to veer into lunatic right wing territory. I can’t wait!
How thick do you have to be to believe that Starmer’s Labour is substantially different from Sunak’s Tories.
There’s a lot less racism and Islamophobia and generally a lot less swivel eyed loons (TM). A lot more competency.
There’s a few differences for you, Mr Thickie!
”Islamophobia” = any criticism of the burqa, niqab, or Islamic fundamentalism.
After David Amess was slaughtered in his office, Islamophobia increased in the Tory party.
He won’t be given 5 years to get to a second term to put through policies which support citizens. Never seen so much anger and I don’t believe it’s all projection. Disillusion will set in within 18 months and then we are in wild waters.
She is just a stupid Neo-Con warmonger – although I suppose now it is Neo-Liberal Lefty Warmonger. But she is nothing like Starmer because her nation is educated and Middle Class still. They are Danes. UK Are Not Danes.
God knows what the UKers are now days. Not British, but some kind of atheist, postmodernist lost boys with a whole lot of Muslims who are equally dysfunctional mixed in.
Comparing UK and Denmark is like equating Canada and Venezuela as they are sort of part of the same continent.
Denmark is riding the slippery slope to the bottom too – they are suicidal as all Europe and UK is – but are starting from a higher vantage.
”Denmark to send its ‘entire artillery’ to Ukraine, the country’s prime minister says”
She is a complete idiot. The Ukraine war is the worst thing the West ever did. It is a 100% evil war caused by us, paid for by us, and will destroy Europe economically (and Ukraine, and take a million lives pointlessly – but make Russia stronger). Starmer is an idiot too, but she – and her voters, should know better.
Mette Frederiksen’s hardcore neoliberal coalision government is actually polling record-low support from the Danish voters and Frederiksen herself is according to sustained rumours from the government’s inner circles preparing to jump ship, once she has landed a big job in an international organization. So perhaps Starmer would be ill advised to follow this example – unless he ultimately just wants a fat bone to chew in NATO, UN or whatever
I’m hoping that Starmer realises that if he want’s a second term for Labour then he will have to ignore the woke left in the party, abandon identity politics and limit immigration. And that would be in addition to improving the state of the country after 14 years of utter incompetence from the Tories. That’s one tall order but if not then they will likely be out in 4/5 years. Wishful thinking I admit.