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Can a wider war in the Middle East still be prevented?

If we are sliding down an icy road to war, the primary actors are at least pressing on the brakes. Credit: Getty

January 20, 2024 - 8:00am

Asked this week whether the joint US-British airstrikes on Yemen’s de facto Houthi government were “working”, President Biden replied: “Well, when you say ‘working’ — are they stopping the Houthis? No. Are they gonna continue? Yes.” While his response has been satirised as the perfect summation of US Middle East policy, there is another way of reading the dynamics of the current crisis: that every military escalation so far, arriving each day with grim inevitability, is so carefully calibrated that the effects are strangely de-escalatory.

Certainly, the Houthis have shrugged off the effects of the airstrikes so far. Yesterday Centcom, the US strategic command for the greater Middle East, announced the third Houthi attack on commercial shipping in as many days, while the Houthis have declared, with customary bellicosity, that “a retaliation to the American and British attacks is inevitable, and that any new aggression will not go unpunished.” Yet the airstrikes themselves, focused on a minimalist target list and telegraphed well ahead of time (whether through conscious intention or, as the Americans allege, poor British information security) were so limited as to be hardly more than a rap across Houthi knuckles, a dramatic and costly equivalent of a tetchy diplomatic note.

A similar dynamic can be seen with Iran’s recent and dramatic ballistic missile strikes across the region. Though clearly a warning to Washington that Tehran can inflict pain on both American bases and US allies should the crisis escalate further, the chosen targets — a prominent Iraqi Kurdish businessman’s home, the defunct base of a Syrian jihadist group and a Baluchi separatist group’s base in Pakistan — were all expendable whipping boys for America itself. While the missile strikes were in themselves escalatory, the targets chosen simultaneously served to de-escalate, flexing muscles while pointedly giving no grounds for a direct US response.

If we are sliding down an icy road towards war, at least the primary actors involved are pressing heavily on the brakes. While the United States possesses vast reserves of unused military force, it is likely beyond its capacity to force the Houthis into a more amenable course of action, particularly given the growing political pressure Biden is already facing. The Iranians too are capable of causing great damage across the region to the US and its allies, but for the most part have chosen a path of carefully calibrated escalation, delegating direct and ineffective attacks on US positions to its newly-unified constellation of Iraqi Shia militant groups.

While the Gaza war is spinning the broader Middle East into crisis, the pace of escalation is, we can say, reassuringly slow. The primary actors are affording themselves as much room as possible to save face without committing to a historic conflict that, ultimately, no one wants to wage. 

Yet, as always, there is a downside: the only viable means of de-escalating the crisis is Israel declaring its war aims fulfilled and winding down the Gaza conflict, an outcome that goes against Benjamin Netanyahu’s direct interests in political survival. Openly spurning Biden’s pleas to not ethnically cleanse or annex Gaza, and hinting at expanding the war to Lebanon, Netanyahu has shown himself defiant in the face of the desires of the great power sponsor on whom Israel’s security depends. The Middle East crisis may be a regional front of a great struggle over America’s role in the world order. But, through his own inability to impose Washington’s will on Netanyahu, Biden has made the global superpower a backseat passenger hurtling down the road to wider war.


Aris Roussinos is an UnHerd columnist and a former war reporter.

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Steven Carr
Steven Carr
8 months ago

Hamas don’t want a ceasefire.
That would mean returning the hostages in exchange for a ceasefire and those terms are unacceptable to the Palestinian people.
So Hamas are not attempting to negotiate a ceasefire.

Rafi Stern
Rafi Stern
8 months ago
Reply to  Steven Carr

More accurately, Hamas’ hardline conditions for a hostage return are a non-starter with Israel – both the government and the majority of the public.

Simon Boudewijn
Simon Boudewijn
8 months ago
Reply to  Steven Carr

The hostages are what they have – to give them is a huge concession as they have nothing else – So it is Israel which is not willing to make big concessions which holds things up.

Two sides in this situation.

David Mayes
David Mayes
8 months ago

Hostage taking is an act of terrorism and a crime. There are only two sides in this situation if you are a fan of lawlessness, mob rule and the reign of terror.

Julian Farrows
Julian Farrows
8 months ago

So the hostages had it coming?

D Walsh
D Walsh
8 months ago
Reply to  Steven Carr

The Israelis don’t want a ceasefire, that would mean they have to stop murdering children

Nick Toeman
Nick Toeman
8 months ago
Reply to  D Walsh

The murdered children were in Israel, those that have died in Gaza were not deliberately targetted, they were where the murderers were hiding.

John Riordan
John Riordan
8 months ago
Reply to  D Walsh

Outrageously stupid remark.

Jim Veenbaas
Jim Veenbaas
8 months ago

So Iran bombed Pakistan to retaliate against the U.S? Even if they are allies, I find this hard to believe. And even if it’s true, it was a stupid mistake by Iran.

Simon Boudewijn
Simon Boudewijn
8 months ago
Reply to  Jim Veenbaas

Iran bombed Wazeristan – hardly mainstream Pakistan and no one cares about them. About the same as if you wanted to do something to USA so you bombed one of the Alaskan Aleutians Islands.

This is military theater

Jim Veenbaas
Jim Veenbaas
8 months ago

Pakistan certainly cares because it bombed Iran immediately. There is no love lost for Iran in the Middle East either.

Steve Murray
Steve Murray
8 months ago

Whilst Netanyahu remains PM, there will be no prospect of an end to the immediate conflict. The sooner the Israelis fully realise this and more importantly, do something about it, the better. His own war cabinet are starting to make noises:
Eisenkot: Key Israeli war leader challenges Netanyahu over Gaza strategy – BBC News
I fully support the right of Israel to exist, and to do so in peace with its neighbours. I’m not at all sure the strategy of seeking to ‘eliminate’ a mindset is possible, but it can’t be done through the use of military force alone.

Steve Murray
Steve Murray
8 months ago
Reply to  Steve Murray

…and once again, would those downvoting care to specify which particular points in my comment they disagree with, and why? I’m stating little more than the bleeding obvious.

Dermot O'Sullivan
Dermot O'Sullivan
8 months ago
Reply to  Steve Murray

Steve, that’s a red line they won’t cross.

Jim Veenbaas
Jim Veenbaas
8 months ago
Reply to  Steve Murray

I didn’t down vote you, but I don’t agree that Bibi needs to be removed to end the conflict. The US still exerts tremendous influence on Israel and it will have to bend to its will.

D Walsh
D Walsh
8 months ago
Reply to  Jim Veenbaas

It’s NOT the US that influences Israel, it the other way around

Flibberti Gibbet
Flibberti Gibbet
8 months ago
Reply to  Steve Murray

I did not downvote but your post prompted me to compose a counter argument.
The Netanyahu issue is just a minor transient domestic Israeli affair, war in the Middle East is orders of magnitude more important by comparison.
Maybe downvoters were irked that you attached your strong views views about Israeli party politics to a debate of greater significance and then claimed your view is obviously the truth.

Steve Murray
Steve Murray
8 months ago

Thanks for the responses (to all who’ve made them).
But… i didn’t claim my view “is obviously the truth” in the initial comment, and there’s a difference between something being “obvious” and something being “obviously true”. It’s obvious in the sense that Netanyahu might win a Pyrrhic victory over Hamas but will have burnt any bridges towards the longer term settlement that you also reference, which demonstrates my point!

David Mayes
David Mayes
8 months ago
Reply to  Steve Murray

In late November 2023 the Israel Democracy Institute found that 75 percent of Jewish Israelis think the country should ignore mounting pressure from the United States to wind down the war in Gaza. And another poll by Gallup recently showed that 65 percent oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.
Netanyahu is aligning with Israeli public sentiment. He is advocating for the Palestinians living under their own independent civil administrations in their own territory but without their own defence force – the IDF would provide the military force for Gaza and the West bank.
The Palestinian people have amply demonstrated that they cant responsibly manage full sovereignty. They would prosper living in such a neutered state. Even Biden has now acknowledged this is a possible definition of a two state solution.

Billy Bob
Billy Bob
8 months ago
Reply to  David Mayes

That’s fine, if what the Israelis want is different to the aims of the Americans then the yanks should simply stop funding them

Rick Frazier
Rick Frazier
8 months ago
Reply to  Steve Murray

No down vote from me either, but I think it’s very logical to conclude that no political solution will ever make Hamas peaceful, or ever convince Iran to drop its ambition to wipe Israel off the face of the earth. That is the “obvious” reality facing Israel.

Simon Boudewijn
Simon Boudewijn
8 months ago
Reply to  Steve Murray

Steve – ”stating little more than the bleeding obvious”

Sure – if you read Guardian, BBC, and Neo-Con rags like Financial Times, and Telegraph or watch USA MSM, or social media Only….

Bit if you take in more than that you could realize you are wrong – Much Could be done. The UN Used correctly (and not vetoed by USA) – or Biden saying not one more penny – and a number of things – this is not one man against the world (Netan) – and winning. This is powers that be are letting this continue. Goosing it along – maybe with ‘Buyers Remorse’, but still sticking with the game.

Rafi Stern
Rafi Stern
8 months ago
Reply to  Steve Murray

Linking Israel’s stance to Netanyahu is to misunderstand the majority of Israeli public opinion. Most of the public want Netanyahu out. Most of the public want to fight this war to the end. What is becoming clear, as time goes on, is that “the end”, will not look like the victory originally promised in the immediate aftermath of the 7th October massacre, it will look more like a long-term Israeli re-occupation of Gaza. The alternative is to return back to 6th October and hope it goes better this time. And that is unacceptable to the Israeli public – not just to Netanyahu’s political survival instincts, whatever Haaretz headlines would have you believe otherwise.

Simon Boudewijn
Simon Boudewijn
8 months ago
Reply to  Steve Murray

The Puppet Biden regime could stop the conflict with one phone call – but they are too corrupt and cowardly – may upset the voters, may upset the Arms manufacturers – may upset the Neo-Con’s whose ‘Great White Whale’ has always been blowing up Iran – so peace would not further that twisted dream of theirs.

It was Biden flying there and giving Netanyahu a massive lovers bear hug and a blank check which got everyone in this mess it is now escalated into.

If they canceled the check it would go away.

j watson
j watson
8 months ago
Reply to  Steve Murray

You’re right SM. Bibi’s survival now too wedded to a continuation, and potential escalation, of the conflict. Leaders can make a huge difference to what happens and he’s at the fulcrum. It’s desperately detrimental.
That doesn’t mean majority of Israeli’s don’t support continuation of attempt to eradicate Hamas, but they increasingly recognise he won’t bring the hostages home. They are also just waiting for the moment to call him to account for letting 7/10 happen and for allowing Hamas to grow as a counter weight to Abbas.
Only 5 MPs need to flip in the Knesset. If Gantz withdraws from Coalition others will follow. All that’s keeping him in power is a failure as yet to rally behind clear favoured successor, that sense that the first mover never inherits the crown, and the criticism that may come in a time of War. But a majority already want him out. He knows to survive he needs on-going War and that is why you point holds great validity.

Flibberti Gibbet
Flibberti Gibbet
8 months ago

Can a wider war in the middle east be prevented? Yes very simply.
The situation in September 2023 was relatively quiet, Gaza had not been headline news for years, the Saudi/Houthi/Iran conflict had come off the boil. The Abraham Accord was still a recent memory that illustrates there is a regional wish to evolve the Middle East out of its historical mess.
One thing changed on 10/7.
Now 3 months later the Israelis are reaching a point where the incremental weekly gains in their systematic destruction of Hamas capability are small compared to the growing reputational damage.
Once the Gaza occupation ends the whole situation should defuse. If a few more surgical strikes against the Houthis prompt the leadership to question their military capacity to retain territory against Saudi backed forces, then they will question the benefit of further drone strikes against international shipping.

Rafi Stern
Rafi Stern
8 months ago

It seems that you totally misunderstand what is going on in the Middle East today. The “relative quiet” was a complete misconception as is being proven by the insane amounts of weaponry and military investment in Gaza currently being destroyed by Israeli forces. Israel cannot allow a return to 6th October. Iran has been building its proxy military force against Israel for years. Hizballah is still waiting for its opportunity to attack and is a far more formidable adversary. Iran’s plan was for a simultaneous attack, but luckily for Israel, Hamas screwed that up, and now Hamas must be neutralized so as not to pose a threat. The situation will not defuse as Iran is set on regional domination and on the destruction of Israel. A pull-out from Gaza will not diffuse that, only fuel Iran’s confidence to pursue its ambitions.

Flibberti Gibbet
Flibberti Gibbet
8 months ago
Reply to  Rafi Stern

The deputy foreign minister of the US commented on the prevailing lower tensions in the area only a week before the Hamas attack.

 The situation will not defuse as Iran is set on regional domination and on the destruction of Israel.

That has been the case for decades. I am making a prediction based on the deltas between now and 4 months ago. You mention weapons found in Gaza, presumably they have been destroyed which means lower risk in Gaza for a couple of years.
One negative delta is that the Houthis now have a taste for intervention beyond their historic regional/tribal conflict. In the short term they can be dissuaded however AI enabled loitering drones will give marginalized warlords the ability to disrupt world commerce far beyond their traditional zone of influence. This is a growing problem over a 10 year timeframe.
However there is a reasonable chance the Middle East will settle back to simmering discontent for a couple of year which is the most we can hope for until the oil and gas run out.

Simon Boudewijn
Simon Boudewijn
8 months ago

Look – no one there wants a full war – See- Because they live there. The American and Brit Neo-Cons, they love a war there because it is a huge corrupt money tidal wave for them – but not their place being blown up, not their people being chopped to bits.

Paul
Paul
8 months ago

Iran’s “restraint”, such as it is, will run out as soon as it has a dozen nuclear bombs.

Samuel Ross
Samuel Ross
8 months ago

Crush the Houthis.

Rocky Martiano
Rocky Martiano
8 months ago
Reply to  Samuel Ross

How? The US armed Saudis have been trying for 10 years and failed. Care to share your military strategy?

Sriram Ramakrishnan
Sriram Ramakrishnan
8 months ago

There is only so much that Joe Biden can do. While, yes, the Dem base, especially the younger, Gen Z crowd is not so well disposed towards Israel, the broader American public strongly supports Israel and would not want any pressure on Netanyahu to backtrack. It’s not so much a decline in America power as it is Biden’s inability due to poll compulsions that’s behind an ineffective US efforts.

Bernard Brothman
Bernard Brothman
8 months ago

This fall has been the season of the unexpected. Most of did not expect:
Hamas to attackHamas to be so brutal (kidnapping, rape, torture)Hamas to be so successful in its attack.The lack of Israeli intelligence or the failure to head warnings from its own Unit 8200The slow Israeli response on 7 OctoberThe restraint shown by Hezbollah. Hezbollah has significantly more missiles and more deadly missiles which are remaining in the ground yet to launch. It’s almost perfunctory.Israel to go after Hamas in places previously off limits (such as the hospitals)Israeli civil society stepping up in support of the war with Israelis from all over the world returning to Israel to fight or help.The amount of antisemitism and pro-Hamas sentiment on display in the US and UK.The support of Israel shown by President Biden in spite of a loud chorus against it shown by the left flank of the US Democrat party.The Houthis to attack western shipping (in case you have not notice the Houthis do not attack Chinese owned or flag shipping).The muted US response to the Houthi attacks.
Most of us can only watch or make book on what we will think happens next.

Barton Turner
Barton Turner
8 months ago

Maybe if the US and Israeli militaries conduct a massive bombing campaign against Iran’s nuclear weapons related facilities it will give the Israelis and Palestinians a chance to work towards some solution without the Iranian threat hanging over the area. I can’t imagine how Israel can allow Gaza to be rebuilt with Hamas in charge. The near-future map of Israel/Palestine will probably need to be revised.

Rocky Martiano
Rocky Martiano
8 months ago
Reply to  Barton Turner

The neo-con solution to everything. More bombing.