February 26, 2024 - 6:30pm
President Joe Biden is facing a serious setback in Michigan, a key swing state he won by three points in 2020.
Among Democratic primary voters under the age of 30, 28% plan to vote “uncommitted” rather than cast a vote for Biden in Michigan on Tuesday, according to a new Emerson poll. Such a vote would be more symbolic than practical — the President is still projected to win the primary by a massive margin — but it demonstrates a lack of enthusiasm that could haunt him come November.
Dean Phillips, the long-shot Democratic challenger, wins 5% of the primary votes in the state, while 12% are undecided and 9% plan to vote “uncommitted”, the poll has found.
The poll also has Trump winning Michigan 46-44, with the likely GOP candidate winning among male voters by a 12-point margin and Biden winning women by five points. Meanwhile the economy, an issue on which Trump outperforms Biden significantly, was the top issue for Michigan voters.
The President’s support for Israel in the Gaza war has hurt his standing with Arab and Muslim-American voters, many of whom live in Michigan — a fact that could have a significant impact on the general election. Biden won Michigan by only 154,000 votes in 2020, and the state is home to about 200,000 individuals of Arab descent.
But Gaza has also hurt Biden with young voters, who are critical of the President’s handling of the ongoing war. “Listen to Michigan”, a campaign organised by Rashida Tlaib’s sister Layla Elabed, is urging Democrats to vote “uncommitted” on Tuesday. It’s part of a broader effort from Democrats to send a message to the President about Gaza.
“We’re okay with going through those four years of hell once again, so long as the genocide stops. So long as the person that has committed the genocide is ousted from office, hopefully that will send a signal to the next administration”, Samraa Luqman, chair of the Abandon Biden Campaign in Michigan, told CBS News.
Biden’s advanced age is also a factor in his low popularity among young voters, the Emerson poll found. For voters under 50, his age raises doubts about voting for him, compared to 53% of voters over 50. While Trump himself is 77 years old, this is less of a deterrent to his base: 73% of Democrats think Biden is too old to serve as president, while only 35% of Republicans think the same of Trump, a recent poll found.
The Emerson polling is the latest in a series of surveys finding Biden losing the youth advantage on which the Democrats can usually rely. Trump was leading leading Biden in five out of six swing states, including Michigan, in a November poll from the New York Times. In a tight presidential race, losing his edge among young voters may just cost the incumbent his reelection.
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SubscribeIt is very interesting that the site still does not have a word about the latest events relating to London, Parliament, the Mayor of London and one Tory MP. Looks like UnHerd isn’t quite UnHerd when it comes to “Islamophobia” 😉
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https://twitter.com/reformparty_uk/status/1762108040000471174
The paranoid and bigoted yammerings of a soon-to-be-former MP and future nobody are probably not that interesting to most people.
The fact that Richard Tice agrees with him confirms his irrelevance.
As always, thank you very much for your help! Whichever direction you spit, I can be sure that it is the right side
You are quite correct to put “Islamophobia” in speech marks. It’s like “trans woman”.
This isn’t the Guardian.
Not ToL too
Plenty to say about Labour antisemitism though.
People here don’t want different points of view. They just want a point of view that comfortably suits their biases which they struggle to find in the mainstream because their views and biases are so perverted.
People here don’t want different points of view.
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If you mean UnHerd readers, I think you’re a little wrong. Here they read different authors, enjoying the opportunity to criticize or praise them, as well as communicate or argue with each other. Compare this to the stifling consensus of progressive sites and you’ll notice the difference.
This is why UnHerd is considered a “conservative” site where snowflakes immediately feel like a target for microaggressions.
I know of only one other site similar to UnHerd – Quillette.
Arab and Jewish minorities in America are fighting about a war with almost zero real impact on the lives of most Americans? Young people indoctrinated into the woke religion aren’t satisfied with old man Biden, the living embodiment of blandness and finger in the wind politics? That’s just too brilliant. Trump and the Republicans couldn’t possibly concoct, let alone implement, such a brilliant and effective strategy to undermine their political opponents as the one the Democrats have inflicted upon themselves through their own stupidity and bad policies. Globalism is failing as a political doctrine and identity politics is ultimately self defeating. That’s all that’s happening here. Nothing particularly noteworthy but the logical outcome of the hubris born out of the ‘end of history’ and the attempt by mere mortals to arrange our world to fit our petty understanding of how things “should” be. Pride goeth before the fall, and I, for one, admit to being a bit of a misanthrope who enjoys the watching fools suffer for their foolishness probably more than I should. I always loved those Three Stooges shorts. There’s something about seeing a fool get what’s obviously coming to him that I find deeply satisfying.
Not all Arabs are Muslim. Some are Christian (ask the Lebanese). Not all Muslims are Arab (ask the Iranians, Pakistanis and Indonesians — as examples). Most U.S. reports claim there are over 250,000 Muslim Americans in Michigan who are of voting age.
While uncertain, it will be very difficult for Biden to regain the vote of those who will vote uncommitted on Tuesday. Additionally, there are Muslim Americans who vote Republican/conservative due to culture issues. The LBGTQ+ community has enraged Muslim Americans who are throwing out school board members, taking down colorful flags and combing school books for anything that remotely offends their religious views. Metaphorically they’re not taking hostages, they’re taking scalpes.
In a the general campaign the Biden camp will have to spend enormous time and money just trying to regain such voters who previously they just encouraged to vote early absentee. Won’t be any ballot harvesting this time around. If Biden tries to pivot on the Gaza/Israel conflict, he will anger American Jews who typically vote 65% Democrat. There is also a significant number of Jews in Michigan, though reportedly smaller than the American-Muslim community.
Don’t see a path for Biden in Michigan. He needs to look elsewhere for an electoral majority. If there is one to find.