Who’s the big loser from tactical voting?

Tactical voting is an unavoidable fact of the first-past-the-post system. But how would Britons vote if they had no reason to be tactical? One of the key takeaways from a new YouGov poll is that Brits don’t care all that much for Labour — only that they really don’t like the Tories. If tactical voting weren’t necessary, support for Sir Keir Starmer’s party would fall by eight points to 29%. This suggests that Labour’s looming victory is reliant on an informal coalition to get the Tories out.

Implied voting intention if tactical voting were not necessary

Labour: 29% (-8 compared to actual voting intention)
Conservative: 18% (-2)
Reform UK: 16% (=)
Green: 13% (+6)
Lib Dem: 12% (-2)
Other: 9% (+3)https://t.co/VFvDUBqUSN pic.twitter.com/IuoV9H9iUk

— YouGov (@YouGov) July 1, 2024

Among the challenger parties, support for the Greens actually rises by six points to 13% without tactical voting, whereas Reform remains at 16% and the Lib Dems fall by two points to 12%. So where does that leave poor old Rishi Sunak? Riding high on 18%, with a fall of two points. At least he’s ahead of Nigel Farage: small victories…