Lviv, Ukraine
“In the old days, we had horses and cows and pigs and chickens. Now we are dying of hunger. In the old days, we fed the world. Now they have taken all we had away from us and we have nothing. In the old days, I should have bade you welcome, and given you as my guest chickens and eggs and milk and fine, white bread. Now we have no bread in the house. They are killing us.”
The words are spoken by a Ukrainian peasant to the Welsh Journalist Gareth Jones and duly reported in the Daily Express on 6 April 1933. Jones was the first person to report the truth of the famine that Josef Stalin unleashed on Ukraine when he decided its people were hoarding grain that rightly belonged to the State and duly sent his commissars backed by troops to expropriate (read: steal) it. At least 5 million people died from starvation in the USSR between 1931 and 1934 — including 3.9 million Ukrainians. It was a low point even by the standards of the vertiginously bloody 20th century.
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Now, almost a century later, soldiers have once more been sent by Moscow to seize Ukrainian grain. Once more, farmers are killed and their barns and stores looted. And once more, the Ukrainian people are being made to pay for the madness of their neighbouring Tsar.
***
Ukraine is a country cursed by its good luck. It is well-known that it is perennially — and unambiguously — cursed by geography: it sits next to Russia, which has brought it the USSR, Josef Stalin, the gulags and an unsuccessful Cold War. There isn’t really any upside to all this. Less known is that Ukraine also suffers from its own fecundity. The country is coated in so-called “black soil” (Chernozem), which contains the humus and variety of micro elements that make it the most fertile soil in the world. In it grows massive amounts of barley, wheat, corn, soy, rape seed and sunflowers. Only about 2% of the world’s soil is black soil and about 25% of that is found in Ukraine. The country has around 42 million hectares of agricultural land of which roughly 32 million is cultivated every year — equivalent to roughly one-third of the arable land in the entire European Union. It is an agricultural superpower. According to former Minister of Agriculture, Roman Leshchenko, “it is no exaggeration to state that Ukraine can feed the world” — and therein lies the problem. Stalin considered Ukraine the “breadbasket” of the Soviet Union and when Hitler dreamt up a demented idea of empire based up on the principle of Lebensraum it was control of Ukraine’s black soil that he hoped would feed the Third Reich. In came the Germans; once more Ukrainian blood flowed. [su_unherd_related fttitle="More from this author" author="David Patrikarakos"]https://staging.unherd.com/2022/05/the-demolition-of-kharkiv/[/su_unherd_related] Since the Russians invaded on 24 February, they have destroyed civilian districts, smashed public infrastructure, and tortured and executed prisoners. They have also stolen farm equipment, shelled food storage sites and stolen thousands of tonnes of grain. It’s systemic and it’s planned and most obvious in the country’s south, where I spent considerable time over the past two months. In both the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts farmers have reported multiple thefts. In the Kherson village of Mala Lepetykha, Russian soldiers reportedly stole 1,500 tons of grain from storage units which they then drove to Crimea. “It’s very simple,” says Andrey Stavnitser, co-owner and CEO of Ukrainian port operating company TransInvestService. “They’re stealing grain in the areas they have invaded — Mariupol, Kherson Melitopol and so on — which they then take to Crimea, load onto vessels pretending its Russian grain, and then sell. With grain, if you don’t tag it, it’s impossible to tell where it comes from, especially if they mix it with Crimean and Russian grain.” Then there is the problem that Ukraine cannot export the grain it has. When I first arrived in Odesa last month, I noticed that the city’s most famous sight, the Potemkin steps that connect the harbour to the city, were inaccessible: surrounded by soldiers who had closed the port for fear of Russian attacks. Russia stole Crimea in 2014 and with it the Ukraine’s most important port. Now it has taken Mariupol and, with it, Ukraine’s access to the Azov sea. Now it heads toward Mykolaiv and then eventually, it hopes, Odesa. In the meantime, it is shelling both cities, rendering their ports unusable. Ukraine cannot get its grain out. This creates a twofold problem. First, Ukraine has 320 million tonnes of grain stuck in the country from last year’s crop, which Stavnitser calculates is costing Ukraine around $15 billion of revenue. To make matters worse, the new crop is ready in late June, which means more will need to be stored if it cannot be sold. But Kyiv usually just sells its grain immediately so it never bothered investing in the appropriate technology for longer-term storage. Now the grain risks going rotten. Together this creates a second problem that spreads far beyond Ukraine. Several African countries depend on Ukrainian grain. Around 40% of Egyptian milling grain —the grain that is used for bread — comes from Ukraine. If this fails to materialise there won’t be famine but there would likely be widespread hunger. The effect of this on the country, as well as on the region’s political stability, would almost certainly be catastrophic. [su_unherd_related fttitle="Suggested reading" author="Ian Birrell"]https://staging.unherd.com/2022/05/even-mcdonalds-couldnt-save-russia/[/su_unherd_related] And there are dangers closer to home, too. Just this week, Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England warned that Britain faces an “apocalyptic” rise in food prices caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “[An inflation risk factor] I am going to sound apocalyptic about is food,” he told the Treasury select committee. “Ukraine does have food in store but can’t get it out at the moment.” In her book Red Famine, the historian Anne Applebaum writes that “long before collectivisation began, the phenomenon of the violent expropriator — a man who brandished a gun, spouted slogans and demanded food — was familiar in Soviet Ukraine.” Now the violent expropriators are back and almost a century later, not only have their goals — the theft of Ukraine’s resources — remained unchanged, but seemingly also their tactics. The Russian army still fights like the Red Army did during the Second World War. Its tactics remain equally stupid, its brutality equally unchecked. It murders Ukrainian children. It destroys Ukrainian artefacts. It tries to erase all traces of the country’s national identity. No surprise, then, that its incompetence means it has only succeeded in galvanising it. The more Russia stirs memories of the Holodomor the more national feeling it breeds in Ukranians; the more it steals and rapes and kills, the more Ukraine becomes determined to resist — until the end if need be. But it needs help. While the world buys Russian oil and finances its war, many countries are also buying its grain, some of which is almost certainly stolen from Ukraine. Beginning in March Moscow has struck new deals with Egypt, Turkey, Syria, Iran, Lebanon and Libya. “It is totally unacceptable that anyone can buy grain from Russia because this is fuelling the war,” says Stavnitser. “You cannot protest the war and then go out and do things that only serve to prolong it.” The next few weeks are likely to prove critical. As Stavnitser concludes: “We all hope the UN succeeds in negotiating humanitarian corridor for grain with Russia and if this happens, we will start exporting last year’s crop fast and also be able to start exporting the new crop in a few weeks’ time. If that doesn’t happen then we will be reduced to using rail and road and some smaller ports and can export only around 1.2 to 1.5 million tonnes [as opposed to 5-6 million]. If this happens then many countries — especially in Africa — will be facing a severe ad urgent food crisis.”
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SubscribeA searing article. One can only hope that it is widely read and that a potential catastrophe is averted.
Indeed. My brain cells are still scorched.
Notice how he quotes Andrey Stavnitser? Just another regular, old fashioned “industrialist”, one who played a stellar role in forming a country that has the lowest per capita income in Europe and 1/4th that of “backward” Russia – despite those massive natural resources (rich agricultural land, huge quantities of subsidised or stolen gas)
The best bit was “The Russian army still fights like the Red Army did during the Second World War. Its tactics remain equally stupid, its brutality equally unchecked. It murders Ukrainian children. It destroys Ukrainian artefacts. It tries to erase all traces of the country’s national identity.”
Because the Russian army tactics, strengths and weaknesses, are in many ways the exact reverse of the Red army for most of WW2. They learnt a lot from Manstein and co.
And also because a major reason their advance was slow was not “stupid tactics” but the Russians were more restrained compared to Chechenya, compared to the Ukrainians in Donbass or the Saudis in Yemen, and especially compared to how the West behaved in Iraq, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Libya
Sad to see so many commenters here just mindlesly sucking up the Western disinformation. Anyone with access to Youtube not least channels of Graham Phillips and Patrick Lancaster can see for themselves the lies laid bare. No this war did not start in 2022, no it was not started by Putin (who certainly is not mad or empire-building obsessed). No, Mariupol has not been bombed to Apocalypse by evil Russians, most of its buildings are still useable. No the Azov are not heroes, rather than are Neo-Nazi thugs who have operated a regime of terror in Mariupol which the RF forces have now liberated. You can see the joy of the Mariupol residents in the videos. You can hear and see them personally witness to who are the real war criminals.
You can also see why world leading military expert Scott Ritter got blocked from twitter – no he didn’t use any rude words. But carry on sucking up the Nato warmongers’ kool aid instead.
Thanks for the Graham Philips and Patrick Lancaster tips. Also on YouTube, Alex Thomson being interviewed by Dan Austin-Gregory yesterday. A quite exceptional podcast. The BBC coverage can’t be trusted behind the thinnest sheet of tissue paper – same as with COVID-19.
Then why isn’t Russia going to re-open the steel plant, but instead turn Mariupol into a “seaside resort?” That will destroy the city’s economy.
Can Graham answer that question?
I up voted you any way
Actually, their techniques are very similar to the1944 Red Army. Stand off, use massive amounts of artillery and rockets, and pay no heed to any “collateral damage”. But at least they had a legal and moral justification for their invasion of Germany.
There is no legal or moral justification for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It has backfired spectacularly, but the Russian equivalent of the man in the Clapham Omnibus is closing is or her ears to it – echoes here of postwar Germany. Let us hope that nature takes its course and puts Vladimir Vladimirovich out of his misery.
I’ll share it.
This is perfectly in line with Putin’s 17th C view of the world.
It’s a Mercantilist dream. Putin gave up on a modern economy over a decade ago. Instead, he tried to make Russia totally independent of the outside world, while accruing vast wealth through oil, gas–and now grain. And if he had taken all of Ukraine his dream would have come true. He would now be blackmailing both Europe and the world.
Either Putin is decisively defeated in Ukraine, or the West (i.e. us) has no future.
Why did Putin seem perfectly fine for 15 years and didn’t seem that keen on blackmailing Europe, dreaming about Ukraine or resurrecting the Warsaw pact, during which time the Russian economy was if anything more dependent on oil & gas than now
And then suddenly “give up on the modern economy” around 2014, suddenly became this monster?
Did something else happen in 2014, I wonder?
See video on Graham Phillips channel titled “Mariupol – War and Peace” for some rather unchallengeable answers. Unfortunately the BBC can’t afford to do this sort of journalism, in our post-Hutton era.
And also his video named
“Ukraine: Nazism, denazification, banderovets, residential area artillery, and guns for everyone” (Trigger warning)
Could be gene mutation within Putin in 2014?
Why do you say Putin was perfectly fine for 15 years? Chechnya? South Ossetia and Georgia? His grip on power has increased, and the mineral wealth has not only enriched a few such as himself, but been spent on modernising his armed forces, and during all of this time, most of the West has been finding ways to spend its ‘peace dividend’. Those with borders with Russia knew better.
Indeed.
He lost in Ukraine, and has had nothing but failures since. He saw this as his last chance to redeem his losses.
Instead he’s lost both Ukraine…and soon Russia.
Why? If Russia goes for autarky and opts out of the international system, why is that the end of the West?
Hell, Western sanctions are doing just that, anyway.
We need a negotiated settlement and stop moralistic preening.
Putin also planned the recent shotting in Buffalo NY, baby formula shortage, also many parties in Downing street, definitely Trump’s presidency as well as the Jan. 6 Capital riot 2021…
So, all the food of the world comes from Ukraine and Russia? I don’t buy it.
11.5% of the world’s wheat – orobably tje most important crop – comes Ukraine, 16.8% from Russia. Not all of it but a significant amount. Significant percentages of maize and barley and livestock feeds come from them too.
Actually most of the Ukr food is wheat and sunflower oil, the most toxic of foods according to experts such as Gundry and Mercola. So I certainly don’t buy any of it.
Ah, great news, people will die of hunger, but won’t be poisoned by wheat. I’m sure people in 3rd world countries facing starvation are going to be thrilled about this revelation.
And their grapes…their grapes are sour!
Russia accounted for 19% of the global wheat export market and Ukraine 9%. If it is disrupted, think about the domino effect on food supply chains all over the world (think how shortages of wheat would affect not only wheat prices, but also substitute products – grains, rice, meats, eggs etc). The whole food production/distribution/consumption chains.
The world will eventually adjust, but it would take 2-5 years; in the meantime expect soaring food prices (on top of energy bills) for the developed world and shortages for the failing states.
But also, the war is having second order effects in other net agricultural exporters. Argentina didn’t complete its harvest of wheat for want of fuel to power tractors leaving much of it rotting. India is banning exports of wheat to protect themselves from price rises, harming their neighbours Sri Lanka. China may well end up doing the same thing – sauve qui peut.
Ukraine also used to export fertiliser.
But isn’t the point that Russia is selling its grain and Ukraine’s anyway? I wonder what mad millionaire that has been buying farmland stands to win from this food crisis
It would clearly be a waste of time to explain to you how disruption to a material source of something affects market prices everywhere.
I’m Venezuelan, I know very well what suply chain disruptions can cause. I’m still surprised that a country that a year ago no one bothered to talk about, now seems the key to world food. Also, hard to believe that shutting down a single Eastern European country will do more damage to the whole supply chain that locking down for several months the whole West.
Zelensky claims he can hold the Eurovision contest next year so I am confident he can sort out a minor problem like food.
Zelensky’s command to “evacuate” from Azovstal was carried out hours before he even gave the order, so clearly he has some very advanced time machine tech under his belt. Best not doubt him.
The people in the video on Graham Phillips channel, titled “Mariupol – War and Peace”, look like they will be very pleased to have the Eurovision there with ex-President Zelensky in attendance to thank them for helping to liberate Mariupol from eight years of regime of terror perhaps.
Great insight into Putin’s strategy–and his failures. He’s in the process of destroying everything that he covets.
–The main economic in Mariupol is the steel plant–which he has destroyed, and now says the city will be a “resort town.”
–He wanted the chernozem farmland–but is sowing mines to make it uncultivatable.
–Virtually every town and village in eastern Ukraine has been damaged or destroyed, either by his poorly directed artillery or the “dumb bombs” dropped by his air force.
This makes Stalin’s disasters in the 1930s look like the work of a statesman.
Better get ready for another Russian break up. The FSB wont hold it together any better than the Communists did.
How depressing to see the sheer cynicism of our enemies (not just Putin, but China, Islamic fundamentalists etc.) whilst we handwring and berate ourselves for daring to act even slightly Machiavellianly and laud traitors like Assange or Snowden who share military secrets and give succor to our foes.
I may not understand the importance of wheat for the world, so forgive me for my ignorance but what this author is saying is that the western world is always right but stupid and at Russian mercy & Putin is Dr Evil but also extremely clever and holds the whole world to ransom!
Ok , so we have less or expensive wheat due to this war?
In this modern world there are many ways to feed the world.
1) How about we deploy more land to wheat production in a collective manner and reduce animal farming? Is the west willing to take the pain of this change?
2) How about we deploy technology to find ways to mass produce food which may not be wheat ! Necessity is the mother of invention.
3) How about we use strategies to reduce food waste and encourage countries to be self sufficient ?
Wheat is not the only food in the world! Maybe we need to reduce our dependence on this one grain.
Will you be able to stop eating bread and paste and start eating yams every day? Maybe it’s healthier for we westerners to consume 500 calories less every day, but could be life or death for people in Afghanistan. Maybe the easiest way is to ask those baffoons on top to try to stop the wars.
Absolutely. There are powerful vested interests in the West that want and need this war, and the people be damned. A totally predictable and provoked war. A war that could be easily and reasonably settled. Again, Russia has more nuclear weapons than any other country. We ignore her plights at our peril.
And do all of this within weeks?
I believe that World Food Programme depends on receiving surplus from its donors – if there is no surplus, then the UN itself will be unable to provide food aid, so they have a big role to play in clearing the path to exports from Ukraine.
This article smacks as propaganda. While Ukraine is considered the bread basket of Europe. Soviet troops are only in the eastern quarter or less of the country. Ukraine’s problem is not lack of food but the inability to export it since the Russians control the Black Sea. This map shows where Russian troops actually are – Ukraine Interactive map – Ukraine Latest news on live map – liveuamap.com
Soviet troops?
And NKVD.
The inability to export it is covered in the article, but says that where Russia occupies Ukraine, it is taking the grain and selling it on the international market.
What’s your problem?
The “problem” is selling it at inflated prices–rather like Putin’s oil.
His war is good for business.
Care to elaborate on this nonsense statement?
If you investigated Bill Gates and the WEF, and read up on Vandana Shiva, and looked into some of the strange goings on in agriculture over the last few years you would realise that this is all very odd and has been going on for some time. Putin is undoubtedly adding to the problem, but this problem seemed to be getting engineered prior to the invasion of Ukraine.
Would it not be better if we could discuss these things openly without things being immediately dismissed as nonsense.
It’s not Bill Gates or the WEF thats stealing Ukrain’s grain or are you suggesting that Putin is acting on their behalf? Putin is only acting on Putin’s behalf. He doesn’t seem to care about his own people let alone Europe and Africa.Now, I understand, Putin is managing his war at the “Colonel” level – remind you of another ‘great leader’. When he starts ordering “Empty Divisions” around his sand table the similarity will be complete and we will know (as I hope the Russians will) what we are dealing with and how it must be ended.
Agreed, but my point is that we were clearly already heading down this road. Putin is being blamed for everything from inflation through to supply chain issues, food shortages and everything in between, but pretty much everything he is being accused of was already happening before he invaded Ukraine. He is a convenient scapegoat for incompetent western governments to blame for incompetent covid policies and incomprehensible QE policies over the last 15 years.
That is not to say Putin has not added to and exacerbated these problems. He has. But it is incorrect to think he was the actual cause of these problems as these problems already existed.
This is standard political sleight of hand and misdirection.
By blaming Putin for everything means that the masses don’t actually realize that inflation, supply issues, food shortages, etc, were already baked-in and inevitable and were all caused by our own politicians, NGOs, three letter organizations and ‘benevolent’ billionaires.
Putin has compounded the problem not caused it.
Maybe if Gilly put all his farmland in the US to produce grain, we wouldn’t need Ukrainian grain?
It all does seem odd that Mr. G has been buying up farmland in the U.S. like mad. Billionaires usually don’t do things like that just for the fun of it. We need to understand what it means. Some say it’s part of the great reset.
This ‘crisis’ should provide a real bonanza for long suffering US farmers.Perhaps even some of our own subsidy starved East Anglian cereal barons will do very well indeed, as they richly deserve.
Keeping three boys at Eton and two girls at Wycombe Abbey, five hunters at ‘livery’, six Labradors, the helicopter’ and the ‘trophy’ wife doesn’t come cheap.
Is this a war; or isn’t it?
No, just a preliminary skirmish.
Putin was wrong, morally and strategically, to unleash the dogs of war.
But you should also take it up with Victoria Nuland and the other Westerners who staged the Maidan coup in 2014, encouraged Ukraine to not honor Minsk II, and would not negotiate security guarantees for both Russia and Ukraine.
We need to resist Russian aggression because Russian success in Ukraine will probably lead to more aggression, but please spare us the cant about Ukraine being any more democratic or less corrupt than Russia. Until the invasion, Russia had the better moral case. The invasion changed that and put Russia in the wrong, but did not erase the Ukrainian crimes and deceit of the last 8 years.
Frankly, both sides suck. We should help Ukraine defend itself for the same reason we helped the USSR in 1941-45, because it is in our interest to do so. Not because they are paragons of virtue.
I see the Putin apologists and Russian bots are out in force.
I was wondering the same thing? Since when UnHerd deletes comment?
Unherd always talking about free speech and censorship and it turns out that they can just take your post away, without letting you know and without appeal process.
Maybe I just should stop givibg them money. There is even no way of writing a complaint.
All of the time I’ afraid, and like the ‘Star Chamber’, there is NO right of appeal.
Serial offenders are also banned, as I know to my cost, so be warned. The definition of ‘free speech’ as defined by the great Etonian, does not, sadly, exist here.
I wrote to membership email. They replied the post have been put back. That it was done automatically because many people reported the thread. Yet, I think this is the wrong behaviour for the algorithm. No mention to the people that flag others discussions…
One observation. With this much diversity of opinion about Ukraine running contrary to the government and media line of propaganda, we might stand a chance of avoiding (nuclear) war. The fact that the West is reproducing well below the replacement rate may factor in since we don’t have enough young men to send off to war and if we let the modern ladies get a taste of it, my guess is that it will be over quickly. They will complain the enemy to death.
Only one thing comes to my mind: never steal from Russians. That 300+ bl “frozen” is being called stolen by any Russan (every freaking one!) I talked to. Huge mistake. Huge. Bear is awaken.
I really loathe articles like this which use incomplete or misleading information to justify a viewpoint or opinion. The number cited to prove the massive theft of grain by Russia is 15000 tonnes taken from one region. This is the equivalent of approximately 600 small farm-sized grain trucks, or a half million dollars at today’s price. This is the output of one medium sized family wheat operation.
Compare that 15000 tonnes with the 320 MILLION tonnes they have left over from last year (even though the author also states that Ukraine sells it’s grain ‘right away’, if that’s true, why the excess from last year’s harvest, which was 5 months prior to the invasion…can’t blame Russia for that) and this compares to minor ‘shoplifting’. Not to say it is right, but this is inaccurate and inflammatory rhetoric.
My comments have disappeared as well. I’m posting this response as a test to see if it stays.
It’s beginning to look like Putin is “brilliant” again, like Trump said. The West is accustomed to viewing his war like spectators at a game. He wins one week, loses the next and so on. Put and his circle appear to be playing the long game.
The world today seems to be full of racist gobshites like the author of this diatribe.
Maybe our best hope is to die in the first waves of attacks in the inevitable all out nuclear war.
Thatll give Gaia another chance of coming up with some bipeds that are vaguely rational and moral.
Why did the west provoke Russia into this war if they knew Putin was capable of this kind of action? It’s almost like they wanted this to happen.
The RF had no choice because Nato meddling caused an existential threat. The Western muppet “leaders” have/had no choice because the Nato warmongers call the shots over here. That includes Zelensky who wanted to end the war against Russia but the Azov naatsyies, trained and armed by saintly Nato, effectively took control with a gun to his head a couple of years ago. Z cannot call a halt because the Azovs would immediately assassinate him, see “Odessa Massacre” and much more for further facts the bbc are allergic to mentioning.
Meanwhile western countries are supplying weapons to Ukraine, ensuring continuation of a war that started in response to NATO aggression. If the west want to prevent famine, it needs to stop arming Ukraine and bring an end to the war.
Hey, accuracy of facts is so 1970s, please keep to the correct script now. Our NATO profits depend on it.
Putin could stop the war tomorrow by taking his troops out of another sovereign nation. The blame lies solely with him
Oh if we would need only to put blame on someone, I wish! OK, we put it on the obvious guy, then what? It’s clear that he intends to win this war by any means, he said it’s existential for Russia. Supplying weapons just prolongs it, brings more casulaties, nothing more. I’m afraid it will end with just one or two tactical nukes and it’s over. More weapons = more dead people.
A lot more arms sales profits over here. What’s not to like?
You’re confused; it was Russia which invaded Ukraine, and uses the brutal tactic of either shelling and bombing inaccurately, or doing so accurately and aiming at hospitals and residential areas.
I suppose the Western world is supposed to forget all about the decades of Soviet expansionism and oppression that brought death and misery to countless millions in Ukraine and the rest of Eastern Europe. Interesting how the Germans paid the price for their crimes against humanity, but the Soviets got away with theirs, scot-free. No Nuremberg trials there, thank you very much. Change a few acronyms – KGB conveniently becomes the more benign FSB – then get your religion on and support the Church that you persecuted mercilessly for years under Stalin and other Russian national “heroes.” Maintain an authoritarian state that crushes dissent, invades other sovereign nations at will, and pumps out propaganda for gullible Westerners (remember “no famine here!” Walter Duranty?). “NATO aggression?” No sympathy here, my friend.
Yes the Germans paid for their crimes…debts written off, financial assistance, war criminals released early to run the economy…
What?!! Who said they paid in full for their crimes?? Pardon me, they paid when I say they paid and six million Jews with me. Call us in a thousand years from now, we’ll talk about it maybe.