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Green hypocrisy hurts the poorest The West's war on energy is crippling Africa

Credit: Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP/ Getty


and
February 14, 2022   5 mins

Roughly a half century ago, rising energy prices devastated Western economies, helping make the autocrats of the Middle East insanely rich while propping up the slowly disintegrating Soviet empire. Today the world is again reeling from soaring energy prices; but this time the wound is self-inflicted — a product of misguided policies meant to accelerate the transition to green energy.

For the political and academic clerisy, the energy “reset” is like manna from heaven. It gives them a licence to impose the kind of “technocratic social engineering” that makes poor people poorer while stripping away working-class aspirations, as we already see in places like California and Germany. In Spain, 10% of all households cannot adequately heat their homes during the winter months; and in Italy, electricity bills jumped by 55% by January 2022. In the United Kingdom the number of homes that cannot pay their energy bills is set to triple by April 2022.

The new regime of expensive, often intermittent energy also threatens to make permanent the poverty of the developing world, which already suffers from a lack of cheap and reliable energy. The fossil fuels now being targeted by Western policymakers and financial firms like Blackrock are critical for industrialisation, and it is unlikely they can be replaced by wind and solar alone: fossil fuels still account for 81% of all energy supplies, and even if every country meets their climate promises, they will still account for roughly three quarters in 2040.

It’s hardly surprising, then, that in Africa there is a growing scepticism toward Western policies of “sustainability” — even though these policies, draped in the language of socially conscious “stakeholder capitalism”, pledge to address “systemic racism”. Already in 2015, for example, the president of the African Developmental Bank stated that “Africa cannot function because we have no power” and affirmed the continent’s need for “renewable and conventional” energy, including “natural gas and coal”.

Similarly, in the lead-up to the UN Climate Change Conference last year, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari warned that the climate policies favoured by Western governments investors and aid agencies could lead to an Africa-wide energy crisis. Just last month, the president of Senegal made it clear ahead of the EU-African Union summit that Africans are not prepared to pay for Europe’s carbon levy. South Africa’s Energy Minister, meanwhile, criticised NGOs and universities that promote “climate-driven solutions” with money from European think tanks.

And African leaders have every reason to be concerned about the dangers of expensive energy. Fuel riots have occurred in the recent past in Senegal, Malawi, South Africa, and Nigeria, while energy costs were a catalyst for the Arab Spring, when a spike in oil prices drove up the price of grain. Earlier this year in Kazakhstan, soaring energy prices nearly sparked a revolution.

Given that more than half of all Africans live in energy poverty, perhaps their politicians have every right to be worried. Even relatively advanced South Africa no longer produces adequate and reliable electricity and now faces opposition to developing its own fossil fuel and nuclear capacity. The resulting crisis — the country’s manufacturers are closing shop in the face of high electricity prices, leaving two-thirds of young adults are out of work — is threatening the stability of South Africa’s democracy.

In the rest of Africa, meanwhile, in population centres such as Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, energy supplies are woefully inadequate to meet daily needs. Without more reliable energy supplies, the continent will remain mired in poverty — and civil strife is bound to follow.

No doubt aware of this, some governments, such as those in Senegal and Ethiopia, have set ambitious targets for full electrification by 2025. Similar plans are underway across the continent, with the African Developmental Bank promising to help finance electrification by 2030. How likely that is to work remain unclear. It’s striking, though, that while Africa cripples itself in pursuit of eco-friendly energy, Western-backed environmental activists are protesting offshore gas exploration in South Africa’s poverty stricken Wild Coast region.

Contrast what is being recommended for the developing world with the behaviour of the United States and a tale of hypocrisy slowly comes into focus. Thanks in part to the rise of fracking, the US is slated to become the world’s largest producer of liquified natural gas. This growth in the American energy supply has coincided with falling greenhouse gas emissions, largely driven not by environmental regulations but by the replacement of coal with natural gas.

The natural gas boom has been particularly important for those who have suffered from the loss of manufacturing, driving an industrial renaissance in economically hard-hit regions such as the Midwest as well as historically poor parts of the South. Low natural gas prices, notes the Cleveland Fed, have been critical to the manufacturing job growth now transforming large parts of the nation’s heartland. By contrast, green policies have driven high prices in states like California, harming the once thriving industrial economy and driving up the cost of basic necessities like electricity.

It seems odd, then, that President Joe Biden and most Democrats are insistent on ignoring these lessons. Biden and most of his party favour utilising the Federal Reserve and other executive departments to enforce “net zero” policies. Everything from gas pipelines to new leases for offshore oil are being cancelled, while new regulations are making it harder to build new fossil fuel plants. The green-dominated media, meanwhile, is trying to blame energy shortages on climate change and the hated fossil fuel companies.

These policies, both in the US and the rest of the world, are the product of the view that anthropogenic global warming is as an existential threat to life on Earth rather than a long-term nuisance that will have to be managed gradually via adaptation, particularly in light of China and India’s continued fossil fuel growth. To the extent the apocalyptic as opposed to pragmatic view is adopted, the policy agenda moves towards “de-growth”,  which seeks to reduce consumption, effectively lowering the living standards of the masses to “save the planet”. This may seem a small price to pay for affluent people in Europe and America, but one doubts that the governments of the developing world will be willing to tell their poor that environmental piety matters more than basic survival.

Does this mean that we’re doomed to an eco-apocalypse? Not necessarily; it is possible to gradually decarbonise the developing world without hamstringing its economies. On the nuclear front, for instance, there is currently talk of Small Modular Reactors (SMR), which are theoretically smaller and easier to build than existing reactors. But even proponents admit these technologies will take significant investments and a few decades to mature. Some suggest that lithium batteries will allow us to make renewables more viable by vastly improving grid storage technology, but these batteries require enormous amounts of rare earth minerals.

Perhaps the most promising technology is geothermal energy. Thanks to the advances in deep drilling technology from hydraulic fracking, two pilot projects are in progress in Serbia and Canada that might allow for the heat of the deep hot biosphere to be exploited at an affordable cost.

But as the Africans recognise, in the short run we are left with a choice between a net-zero regime based on expensive solar and wind power and one relying on the only energy sources we know are cheap and reliable — fossil fuels. Coal, nuclear power and especially natural gas are here to stay; the imperatives of Greta Thunberg won’t be adopted by people in the slums of Africa’s cities or rural Chinese looking to share in their country’s prosperity. Outside of the talking shops, in the real world, net zero remains a distant prospect. But the mounting energy crisis is already here — and sacrificing the world’s poorest countries, and many in the West as well, in pursuit of a green agenda won’t make it disappear.


Joel Kotkin is the Hobbs Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and author, most recently, of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism: A Warning to the Global Middle Class (Encounter)

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Drahcir Nevarc
Drahcir Nevarc
2 years ago

Here in the UK, the Green Party supports open borders, which means more housing, hospitals, schools, prisons, offices, factories, roads, airport runways, higher house prices, overwhelmed public services, and squeezed C2DE wages.
How is any of this green?

Last edited 2 years ago by Drahcir Nevarc
George Glashan
George Glashan
2 years ago
Reply to  Drahcir Nevarc

They are replacements for the existing population not an addition to it. The indigenous population will be used to make Gammon flavoured Soylent Green for the noble new arrivals.

Drahcir Nevarc
Drahcir Nevarc
2 years ago
Reply to  George Glashan

I suppose that they will maintain a herd of bulls, who will be made to work out for several hours daily in the gym, as well as as being milked by comely transmaidens in simple dirndl skirts.

Martin Johnson
Martin Johnson
2 years ago
Reply to  Drahcir Nevarc

The point is to destroy “the West,” climate and refugees/ immigrants and social justice and everything else are just tools. That is where you will see consistency.

Giles Toman
Giles Toman
2 years ago
Reply to  Martin Johnson

But why destroy the people who have pretty much built and maintained our luxurious first-world lifestyles?
Surely the “elite” doing this will rapidly find that their replacement manimals cannot sustain the first world that they are used to?

Galeti Tavas
Galeti Tavas
2 years ago

Thanks for stating the obvious, if anyone is not intelligent enough to know all this they should be reading ‘The Sun’..

But this scratches the coming poverty chaos. Covid Response, that monstrous NWO/IMF/WEF plot has it all happening in exponential speed… The covid Debt spending coupled with the lock downs did a couple things….

Made equities a bubble so money fled to commodities, raising energy producers price. Made massive inflation, which brings the developing world an inflation they can NOT afford. Foods + energy + raw materials %15 – %60 in a year…. Wile the lockdown closed small businesses – AND THUS giving their business up to the mega Corporations, and it is not going back, and so impoverishes them more..

The IMF FORCED the developing world to do lockdown and do the vax – because it destroyed their economies, they did this intentionally for a couple reasons. One being they had to suffer same as us to prove to the West it was the best Policy, AND so the IMF can make the developing world utterly dependent on them for hard currency loans to service their hard currency debt as their money devalues….I have heard, and believe, the IMF told the developing world to lock down for covid/vax or they would not bail them out in the coming global depression. Then locking down the West meant reduced money from production, people locked out of work, $ Trillions printed for them to not work wile still consuming = inflation… = so less money to the Third world for their economy.

I think the Devos, WEF/IMF/WHO is doing all this on purpose to push their one world New World Order. Best way to trap the world? Control the energy – and the entire WEF is about energy! About Global Warming, and how only they can save us. They call it ‘Sustainability’, but means something very sinister. Read the WEF site – they admit it. You will own nothing, and will be happy – this energy is their way to achieving this.

‘Stakeholder Capitalism’ (Corporations pay no dividends, but invest in the economy directly) is their By-word. That Corporatism and one world Government is the future, which is Fas*i sm. Check them out https://www.weforum.org/sustainability-world-economic-forum They are Bond Villains.

Lee Jones
Lee Jones
2 years ago
Reply to  Galeti Tavas

People are stupid, we know this, insulting them does not make them make them more intelligent, nor does it make them think. They have hegemonic power anyway, so why should they care. Serious, practical, people have been overwhelmed by this and marginalised. Writing shit on website may make people feel better. But it changes nothing! What to do about it is a more difficult proposition, but where and when has bitching ever changed a mindset. Humans have the ability and the technology to deal with this ‘crisis’ but they will not! They will squabble like children as our societies and civilisations disintegrate. Just deserts!

Bret Larson
Bret Larson
2 years ago
Reply to  Galeti Tavas

Wannabe bond villains. Bond villains are more entertaining and likeable.

Last edited 2 years ago by Bret Larson
Justin Clark
Justin Clark
2 years ago
Reply to  Galeti Tavas

Great post.
WEF = Spectre

Last edited 2 years ago by Justin Clark
George Glashan
George Glashan
2 years ago
Reply to  Justin Clark

greta thunberg = Ernst Stavro Blofeld
She already has a bond villain name.

Ethniciodo Rodenydo
Ethniciodo Rodenydo
2 years ago
Reply to  George Glashan

You have that wrong
Haven’t you noticed the similarity between Greta and Chucky

Lesley van Reenen
Lesley van Reenen
2 years ago

I saw her depicted as a dead ringer for Alfred E. Neuman.

Martin Johnson
Martin Johnson
2 years ago
Reply to  George Glashan

Thinners as mastermind? No, she is Blofeld’s cat.

R Wright
R Wright
2 years ago

I’m still staggered that African nations had lockdowns when the average age is 25.

Graham Stull
Graham Stull
2 years ago
Reply to  R Wright

Yes, for me it was a sad wake-up call to just how powerful is the influence of Western policy doctrine on the elites in African countries. They take whatever nonsensical narrative is spun out of Davos, Brussels or New York, and they ram that square peg into the round holes of the countries they rule over.
Hopefully they will use the obvious failure of lockdown to recalibrate their planning on issues like energy security. There is no reason Africans should be forced to pay for our industrial sins.

Martin Johnson
Martin Johnson
2 years ago
Reply to  R Wright

Makes one wonder, doesn’t it?

Sean Penley
Sean Penley
2 years ago
Reply to  R Wright

The worst part is that I heard many of them were being pressured to dedicate more of their health budget towards anti-COVID measures at the expense of, in particular, anti-malaria measures. Except of course malaria is deadly to all ages and is a problem every year. It’s been a minute since I saw stats, but I seem to recall that 2021 became one of the worst years for it in quite a while, and the fact that money, time, and effort were being directed away from that towards a disease that wasn’t making much of an impact on that continent.

Terry Davis
Terry Davis
2 years ago

There’s no such thing as Net Zero, nor Green Energy, but these things are very real to the illiberal left, who despise Africa

Brendan O'Leary
Brendan O'Leary
2 years ago
Reply to  Terry Davis

Since there is no publicly agreed way of calculating “Net Zero” , and no way of actually measuring it, it will be forever unreachable.
A perfect scenario for those seeking public money.

Graham Stull
Graham Stull
2 years ago

I will make my customary plea for sensible population planning at this juncture.
The fact is 11 billion human beings is a strain to the resources of this planet, in every scenario except that in which most of them are condemned to dire poverty. This is true and will remain true until we come up with something much better than the current generation of energy production technologies.
Therefore, leaving cold fusion in la la land where it belongs, we are left with how to make an adjustment towards sustainability in a way that is truly fair. Everything the authors say is right, but they still don’t provide any real solutions on the demand side.
I think we need sensible population politics. This does NOT mean a CCP-style ‘One Child Policy’. It means creating a dialogue about the kinds of policies that can be adopted to encourage smaller family planning: Contraception, creating more mature pension systems in developing countries, using automation to address labour shortages in a strategic way, using the tax and benefit system to reward sustainable family planning better…
Because at under a billion homo sapiens, the fact is we can eat all the tenderloin we like, we can burn all the natural gas we want, and the planet will be just fine.

JR Stoker
JR Stoker
2 years ago
Reply to  Graham Stull

It is astonishing that the quantum of population is the core of the problem, that every green measure will fail if the population increases as projected, and yet this is never discussed

SULPICIA LEPIDINA
SULPICIA LEPIDINA
2 years ago
Reply to  JR Stoker

Didn’t the Rev Thomas Robert Malthus* almost get there years ago when he said:

“I think I may make fairly two postulata. First, that food is necessary to the existence of man. Secondly, that the passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain nearly in its present state … Assuming then my postulata as granted, I say, that the power of population is infinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio. A slight acquaintance with numbers will show the immensity of the first power in comparison of the second. By the law of our nature which makes food necessary to the life of man, the effects of these two unequal powers must be kept equal. This implies a strong and constantly operating check on population from the difficulty of subsistence. This difficulty must fall somewhere and must necessarily be severely felt by a large portion of mankind….”

(* 1766- 1834.)

Graham Stull
Graham Stull
2 years ago

It is only in the very last sentence that I would take issue. Must it, after all, be severely felt by a large portion of mankind? Isn’t the entire purpose of prudential policymaking to equip our societies with tools to improve upon the outcomes nature’s red tooth and claw would otherwise enforce?
Isn’t it our very mission on this Earth to break the cycle in which the rough beast, its hour come at last, slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

SULPICIA LEPIDINA
SULPICIA LEPIDINA
2 years ago
Reply to  Graham Stull

I completely agree.
Perhaps Malthus’s Christian hunger for martyrdom and punishment got in the way? I prefer Yeats’s cynicism.

Judy Johnson
Judy Johnson
2 years ago

But cynicism doesn’t resolve problems.

SULPICIA LEPIDINA
SULPICIA LEPIDINA
2 years ago
Reply to  Judy Johnson

Really? Try a bit of Diogenes of Sinope, was there ever such a man?

Marcia McGrail
Marcia McGrail
2 years ago
Reply to  Graham Stull

It is innocence in the extreme to believe that it isn’t born, burped and breathing fire as we speak.

Graham Stull
Graham Stull
2 years ago
Reply to  JR Stoker

Truly astonishing Peter. It was astonishing me six years ago, in fact:
Overpopulation and Climate Catastrophe: An economist view – Graham Stull

Matt M
Matt M
2 years ago
Reply to  Graham Stull
  1. A plentiful supply of fossil fuel makes a country richer
  2. Citizens of rich countries have smaller families
  3. Smaller families mean a smaller world population
  4. A smaller world population means less global warming
  5. Less global warming means we can use our plentiful supply of fossil fuel without the catastrophic consequences forecast.

In other words, maybe we should do nothing about global warming – let poor countries burn fossil fuels and get rich – and the problem will sort itself out.

Last edited 2 years ago by Matt M
Brendan O'Leary
Brendan O'Leary
2 years ago
Reply to  Matt M

Also the surplus created by using energy-dense hydrocarbons allows richer countries to indulge in publicly funded “green” initiatives.

Dana Jumper
Dana Jumper
2 years ago
Reply to  Graham Stull

I’m going to respectfully disagree. At first glance, I’d submit your numbers are wrong; additionally, you’re suggesting divesting our world of 10 billion people.
Rather simplistic to suggest “creating a dialogue” will achieve that mass de-population you suggest. I think we’re likely going to have to turbo-charge our totalitarian impulses to achieve that.
Population projections have, and are proving to be wrong. It’s unwise to build such draconian de-population measures on numbers that are as questionable as the projected COVID death numbers.
In the meantime, perhaps we could allow each nation state to determine its energy policies instead of imposing our advanced, theoretical, imperial policies on them. Does not each one have that right, or does the fact that the west seems to have won the industrialization game mean that we can just quit and claim the title. Is there any accounting for the regimes that don’t play the game, the Chinas and Indias of the world?
Does that imply there might be outcomes we don’t care for? Probably.
But, it is a happy thought.

Last edited 2 years ago by Dana Jumper
Graham Stull
Graham Stull
2 years ago
Reply to  Dana Jumper

The 11 billion number could be wrong, but if anything it is likely to be wrong on the upside – that is, predicted declines in fertility resulting from increasing living standards may not materialise the same way in developing nations as they have done in the West, due to culture-specific factors. Additionally, recent patterns of fertility decline in the West could well reverse or stabilise. Anyway it is unlikely to be wrong by very much and it is clear that the scale of the overpopulation problem will not be addressed without policy action.
Again, nothing I would suggest would be that draconian. For the most part, we are talking about things that make sense to do, even if there were resources enough for 50 billion. Poor Africans have large families as a form of retirement insurance. If they had a better option, they would stop doing this. This would mean more resources invested in their (fewer) children, less population growth and happier older Africans.
Likewise tapering off child benefits and tax exemptions to households that choose to have multiple children is hardly draconian. It sets a powerful signal, but it also preserves scarce resources for those who need in most.
And who but the most puritanical would seriously argue against making contraception more widely available?

Brendan O'Leary
Brendan O'Leary
2 years ago
Reply to  Graham Stull

Contraception is not the issue. It can hardly be any more available than it already is. People only use it if they want to.

Graham Stull
Graham Stull
2 years ago

Is that true globally? I’m not sure.

Tony Buck
Tony Buck
2 years ago
Reply to  Graham Stull

You cannot get down to 1 billion, or anywhere near it, without mass-extermination programmes.

Especially as Islam is determined to win the Battle of the Womb.

Lesley van Reenen
Lesley van Reenen
2 years ago
Reply to  Graham Stull

This is discussed quite frequently on Unherd. There are many who still make the argument that many people in Western societies need to have more children and that there is enough for everyone.
These people do not see the huge damage these billions are wreaking on the soil and the waterways and the oceans. The flora and fauna.
They have never seen the devastating poverty in parts of the world. And these people bring more and more children into the world… Sadly they do not even have the logic to figure out that by and large they are consigning their children to more poverty…. The cycle and trend you can identify means that we are doomed to go downhill as a species.

Marcia McGrail
Marcia McGrail
2 years ago

I suspect that logic or the lack of it has less to do with begetting of many offspring than profligate men. The women may be grateful not to have a child a year, sti’s, abandonment with the consequences of multiple children, no work, no income etc. Available contraception would also work wonders.

Steve Elliott
Steve Elliott
2 years ago
Reply to  Graham Stull

I’m sure I remember a couple of articles recently on Unherd or perhaps Spiked that birth rate was too low. Elon Musk has said that I think. He hasn’t got enough people to populate Mars apparently.
Also wasn’t there a statement put out around the time of the recent COP that global warming was not caused by overpopulation.
These are not my views by the way.

Martin Johnson
Martin Johnson
2 years ago

In the end, climate policy is about finding ways for rich socially woke westerners to feel good about themselves without doing anything to jeopardize themselves or help anyone else. It is all a form of entertainment or performance art.

Just like most of the response to COVID, to terrorism before that, to economic inequality, to poor public education, to the vestiges of racism that still exist in western democracies, to foreign policy challenges like Putin and Xi, really to just about everything. It is all silly games played by unserious children, in some cases being manipulated by oligarchic moneyed people. They all claim science or virtue, but they are among the worst people in the world.

It was a thing a few years, ago but go reread Kipling’s “Gods of the Copybook Headings.” To mix metaphors, we are waiting for the return of the Four Horsemen.

Brendan O'Leary
Brendan O'Leary
2 years ago

Having been involved both directly and peripherally in drilling, including geothermal, for over 40 years, I’m a bit sceptical about the potential for geothermal projects. The driver for these projects is too often primarily about them being “green” rather than efficient sources of energy.
First and most obvious drawback with geothermal is that it’s not portable, like hydrocarbons or (potentially) nuclear, but fixed to a location, like wind and solar.
For relatively lukewarm non-volcanic geothermal (examples of large-scale very hot volcanic, i.e steam, would be e.g. Iceland, Japan and NZ. There aren’t many places that are suitable) I’ve seen it working well where the power or heat requirement is close to the source. The giant greenhouses of south holland are good examples, and some village hot water & electricity generating schemes in Bavarian towns. Even so, they need a good amount of government assistance.
The Canadian project referenced (actually, Geretsried in Bavaria is a better example of the same technology, ) is yet to be proven and even the Geretsried project hasn’t started drilling yet. Ironically, (for those who take a misty green eyed view of these things) the most likely use of the Canadian project , if it succeeds, will be providing power for oil sands extraction projects nearby.
I really don’t see geothermal providing the large-scale energy source that Africa needs. Although I’m aware that the World Bank is funding geothermal in Djibouti and Kenya, to name two that I know of.

Douglas McCallum
Douglas McCallum
2 years ago

The article could equally be titled “Green Hypocrisy Hurts Everybody (except the ‘Green-Political Complex’). It is not just Africa which suffers from the unthinking fanaticism of the Green religion; the entire world suffers! Just look at the energy price catastrophe already hammering people and businesses globally, and certainly in Britain, Europe, and North America. This and many other types of economic damage which result from Green-driven policies will only get worse. None of this seems to concern the Green fanatics; in their fairy-tale world they can get away with a total lack of common sense and an utter disregard of economics or technology.
I must look forward to a grim near-future, as my pensions are eaten up not by consumption but by inflation brought on by Greenery. The ‘Green-Political Complex’ remains unconcerned, of course, as they generally have cushy jobs in the public sector or publicly-supported charities and universities or are wealthy enough not to care.

jonathan carter-meggs
jonathan carter-meggs
2 years ago

The green rhetoric is extreme and unreasonable. There is a path to sustainability but it requires cool heads and a 50-100 year plan to convert us all. The panic created in the minds of the population (most of whom cannot do A level maths let alone understand scientific output) hamstrings politicians who are only interested in the next election result. The result is a lot of virtue signalling and little progress. Gas is better than coal, nuclear is CO2 free, domestically supplied gas together with nuclear would cover us until truly sustainable energy in the necessary amount is available, and reduce our carbon footprint in the process. However, the idiot voices of doom stop even this reasonable approach and demand changes that will kill many in fuel poverty in favour of imagined babies in the future. Oh and fusion is only 50 years away………ha ha ha ha.

Julian Pellatt
Julian Pellatt
2 years ago

The ‘green’ lobby has been highly effective at brainwashing the world into fear of and compliance with ‘climate change’ edicts via environmental catastrophising; and obscuring the real problem – overpopulation! It is not politically correct to talk about let alone acknowledge that human population expansion is what causes environmental pressures and major crises. Everyone knows where the population is expanding out of control, but nobody dares to discuss this one, key issue.
Lucrative careers have been built on the edifice of the ‘green’ agenda.

John Lee
John Lee
2 years ago

This is the start of the descent into the dark ages for GB>

Jordan Flower
Jordan Flower
2 years ago

History will examine this era as a lesson in how to capture the good nature and high levels of temperamental compassion measured in left-ish types, and use it to further enrich the elite ruling class while further impoverishing the lower class and beating down the working class.
Case study #1 – “Green” global homogeneity
Case study #2 – Covid governmental “health” restrictions
To name a few