November 24, 2020 - 7:00am
I’ve been reading quite a lot about the Black Death this year, which wasn’t the best distraction as it turns out. At least it puts things into perspective — the Bubonic plague having a IFR of at least 60%. During the “Golden Age of Bacteria”, from the 14th to 19th century, communities might be hit by the plague and then soon after by other catastrophes like smallpox (IFR at least 30%) or influenza. Covid-19 would most likely not even have been noticed.
But what also comes out of the accounts are people’s zest for life once the plague retreated. “So came the day, the whole remainder of the village turned out,” Benedict Gummer describes one scene in Sutton, now a suburb of Hull: “more relieved than overjoyed, almost all were still in mourning. Yet the weather now conspired to bring a little hope, for happily it was warm and sunny.” Everyone would have turned out for the party, relieved that the nightmare was over and life could begin again (actually the plague would return within a few years but they weren’t to know that).
Without wishing to curse the year like the most jinxed tweet of all time, I imagine 2021 will feel like that. By early spring enough people will have had one of the vaccines to make a difference: immunity will increase week by week, restrictions will be eased, and masks will come off. When the first warm day arrives in April, the sun on one’s arms will feel golden.
After the “Great Mortality” of 1348-1350, pregnancies went up, with French monk Jean de Venette observing that “Everywhere women conceived more readily than usual.” (Although the longer-term impact was lower fertility, perhaps a reflection of pessimism.)
Casual sex became more common, and even clergymen were accused of “disgusting pursuit of carnal lust” and of being sucked into “the whirlpool of voluptuousness”. People acted more impulsively, and so crime also rose. In one of the most notorious riots of the age, dozens were killed in town v gown violence in Oxford after two students were served “indifferent wine” and given “saucy language” by the innkeeper.
The summer of 2021, especially with the European Championships, will probably see similar visions of Merrie Olde England. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if the increased alcohol use kills more people under 50 in Britain than Covid did.
The Black Death didn’t end the Middle Ages, but it did lead to improvements in the treatment of the sick (just as Covid will result in lots of medical spin-offs), big increases in charitable giving and a narrowing of economic inequality.
Perhaps most telling, more people went on pilgrimage, and according to Robert S. Gottfried’s book on the plague, “In the 1350s and 1360s, there was a glut of travel guidebooks — some sober and earnest, others fabricated — which describe the process of pilgrimage and tell the pilgrims where to stop to eat and spend the night, even the proper way to venerate particular saints.” The most popular travel book was John Mandeville’s (a lot of which was just made up).
Having spent about 90% of the year in one postcode, I can really empathise — because what I really want to do next year is see the world. Or at the very least the neighbouring postcode.
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SubscribeThere probably will be months of indulgence and excess for those who can afford it. It will be a very different picture for those whose livelihoods have been decimated — and those in the bar, restaurant and entertainment industries will be hit the hardest. How many pubs, theatres and concert venues will be left?
In every crisis and disruptive event there are always winners and losers. After the Black Death the change in the fortunes of many of the poorest were quite considerable. Labour was in short supply. Wages increased massively. The feudal ties collapsed and peasants tied to the land became workers who could seek the best employment. Many inherited wealth unexpectedly.
Now of course Covid isn’t the Black Death and the disruption won’t see lots of “peasants” inherit huge estates because a score of their distant relatives died leaving them the family pile. But the point remains that disruption doesn’t always make the poor poorer. The big losers may well be those in comfortable jobs in commuter belts currently being paid a premium and who pay a premium to live in towns served by road or rail links to main cities. These are people who may find that them working at home is a newly discovered option for their employer. An option which opens them up to competition from those not in the commuter belt. From people who don’t have large mortgages but do have broadband and a laptop. People who don’t need premium pay to pay for expensive mortgages in the commuter belts. Will they take a pay cut or lose their job to a person without such expensive overheads.
Or even overseas competition from lower wage economies in southern Europe chock full of unemployed graduates who speak perfect English and several other languages. Manual workers in the UK are not so easily replaced and of course those on benefits will be largely unaffected economically. It may not be the poorest but the comfortably off that pay the biggest price.
In every crisis and disruptive event there are always winners and losers.
Usually, it’s not govt actions that causes the winners and losers.
And sometimes it is.
I think your assessment of who will be most negatively affected by the pandemic and the response to the pandemic is severely constricted. In addition to your overpaid fat cats (who are clearly overdue for a quick kick out the door, I take it), there are others who might not be joining the great big super jolly fun party: the millions of people, from the once-secure to the most marginalized, whose jobs (status, usefulness, basic security) are gone, never to return. The family members abused or murdered by destabilized household members. The small business owners whose hard-won livelihoods have been decimated or erased. The suicides who understandably couldn’t face the hopelessness of desperate poverty. I think they, too, may well pay a price. I leave it to you to determine whether it is or is not the biggest.
Once freedoms are lost, they are near impossible to get back. At least not without violence and there are not many fans of that among normal people.
By early spring enough people will have had one of the vaccines to make a difference: immunity will increase week by week, restrictions will be eased, and masks will come off.
Maybe. Then comes the following fall, respiratory viruses doing what they do in colder months, and the cycle repeats. In the wake of all this are businesses that will never reopen, marriages that fall apart, suicides and overdoses, and the damage done to children.
Remember this: we have been removing shoes at airports for nearly 20 years because one time, one guy tried to fashion explosives from sneakers. A single incident created a permanent change.
Unfortunately, I’d have to agree. While I’d love to share the exuberant optimism of the article, looking at the sheer number of people in the streets who believe there is a terrible plague wreaking havoc with society, I just don’t see how the public mood will change any time soon.
The important thing about measures such as masks is that a precedent has been set. This is one of the main reasons I am so opposed to all this. If governments can lock down their citizens and force them to cover their faces with a piece of cloth when outside, all because of a virus whose victims’ median age is 80+ and one that has killed about 0.03% of my country’s population so far, what else can they do? And what will they do when the next big crisis comes knocking?
The article seems to be somewhat based on the premise that this is a health crisis. It may have been at one point (and probably was in certain parts of the world, in Italy, for example), but now it’s more of a social and political crisis than anything else ““ and the public mood is important when it comes to those.
This applies as much to the UK as to any other country, including my own.
It has not killed 0.03% of the country. It has been impllicated in the deaths of about 0.1%.CDC estimates that only 6% of Covid deaths in US were due to Covid with the rest being due to Covid AND a range of other serious comorbities average 2.6 per person. So if same for UK that would mean that 0.006% (less than 4000) have died due to Covid. So about 2.5 days of normal deaths.
And when you take into account that 2019 had a very low flu death toll it is almost certain that Covid mostly just ‘took’ those who would normally have died in 2019. Still sad for them and their loved ones but not a societal issue; and certainly not on a level to compare to the damage this Government has done to our country.
And now we have seen that Matt Hancock (may he disappear quickly) is determined to keep us under this authoritarian status:
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said he wanted to use the Test and
Trace system to fight seasonal flu once the coronavirus pandemic has passed.
And even before Covid he was looking to make vaccinations compulsory. He is clearly one of those who knows what is best for everyone else and so is not troubled by enforcing his views.
Most of the damage has been done to our nation not by the pandemic itself, but by the extraordinary powers our Government has taken, using the pandemic as cover. They will not relinquish them easily.
I’ll have some of what this guy’s on.
Maybe for you Mr West but not for all those who have already been robbed of their livelihoods or jobs and the many more that will no doubt follow in the months to come.
By spring, public spending cuts that make “Austerity” look like shovelling money out of helicopters will be commencing; public sector pay cuts will be announced; taxes will be rising; council tax will be rising; food prices will be rising; businesses will be closing; unemployment will be rising; NHS budgets will be cut; a terrible thirst for vengeance borne of the realisation that much of this was avoidable will be setting in; and grinning, swivel eyed opportunists will be bobbing up and down whipping up populist resentment to fuel their next project.
Some party.
I wouldn’t be suprised to see a hike in interest payments to “force” people to default and thus lose their homes. This lets the banks and big gov step and gain cheap housing which they can rent back. The economy is so badly screwed that the pre Covid reason for low interest rates no longer applies.
That won’t happen. Governments cannot be seen to be throwing people out of their homes. Interest rates will remain at zero for years to come because to raise them would result in societal carnage.
What price Bretton Woods 2? There are some seriously indebted nations around the world, particularly S America that will collapse as soon as they are asked to recommence payments.
There will be no ‘cuts’. There will simply be some increases in taxes and ongoing orgies of borrowing and printing, unto Paper Money Collapse.
How is money spent when businesses are closed and livelihoods lost? This article is clearly written by someone who has not lost an iota of income and has no clue on the effect of lockdown on the economy. Piffle.
Many people have much more money then normal in their bank accounts due to pubs etc being closed. As soon as these people start spending money, someone will reopen the pubs etc, as the buildings have not been destroyed and there are still the skilled staff willing to work in these jobs.
The pubs etc may have a change of owner, but otherwise they will reopen much the same as they were.
However some businesses that depend on valueless activities like commuting to offices will never recover, and these offices may be slowly converted into flats etc.
This may be the single most clueless, historically ignorant, and insensitive piece I’ve read during the pandemic, so congratulations on that.
I’m looking forward to
“the whirlpool of voluptuousness”.:-)
The headline was not what the text of the article was about except to suggest that there was going to be a release of hedonism like from a safety valve. But why just ‘Britain’ ? Surely the same applies to the whole world ? In any case I don’t agree. The economic hit hasn’t really started yet, set to be made worse if there is no trade deal with the EU. There won’t be much hedonism if you ain’t got a job !
Pilgrimages were and are taken for spiritual reasons and are not designed to satisfy wander- lust. Some comments on this article have movingly described the traumatic effect these last 9 months have had on many people. For some loneliness, bereavement, desperation and profound anxiety have led them to embark on a spiritual pilgrimage – a stay-at-home journey into a new or renewed relationship with God which has transformed their lives.
Judging by your predictions, I don’t think Zoe Strimpel or Louis Mensch will be happy.