October 30, 2020 - 7:00am
A strange little conspiracy theory is going around in parts of the internet. They’ve noticed that flu cases are way down — a September paper from the US CDC reckons by 90%, while this piece makes an (unsourced) claim of 98%. And they have decided that this is because flu cases are being misdiagnosed as Covid. The ur-conspiracist David Icke himself is on board with this one.
To be clear: it’s not true. It is inconsistent with how flu and Covid cases are counted, and there is a much simpler explanation, which is that the measures we’ve taken to counter Covid are also effective against other respiratory diseases. But it has got quite a few people talking about it, and some of the tweets about it are doing fairly big numbers.
Here’s why it’s not true. First, the prevalence of Covid — in the UK, at least — is estimated using tests which look for the presence of RNA from the SARS-Cov2 virus. For instance, on Thursday the REACT-1 survey estimated that around 1.3% of the UK population has the virus. It does this by sampling the population at random, as in an opinion poll, and extrapolating from that. The ONS infection survey does much the same thing.
Similarly, flu prevalence is estimated by taking laboratory-confirmed cases and extrapolating from that to provide an estimate of the total in the population. The two are entirely different kinds of virus — SARS-Cov2 is a coronavirus, flu an influenzavirus — and there just isn’t a way that a test for one could be triggered by the presence of the other. The CDC estimate, mentioned in the first paragraph, is based on positive laboratory tests. That would not be affected by how many Covid tests had come back positive.
The CDC paper says that early on, people thought it might have been because fewer flu tests were being done — due to people with respiratory illnesses being sent for Covid tests — but “renewed efforts by public health officials and clinicians to test samples for influenza resulted in adequate numbers tested and detection of little to no influenza virus”.
Of course, that doesn’t explain why the flu cases appear to have gone down so much. But that seems fantastically non-mysterious to me: the two diseases are spread by similar means, so the measures we take to slow the spread of Covid-19 (masks, lockdowns, travel restrictions, etc) will also slow the spread of flu.
Flu is less easily transmissible than Covid-19 — I’ve just looked at a bunch of studies and they all broadly agree with this one which estimates that a new flu strain has an R of between 1.4 and 1.6, compared to about 2.6 for Covid. If wearing face masks reduces R by 0.7, doing that on its own would only slow the spread of Covid while it would cause flu to (eventually) die away. It could easily be that the measures we’ve taken haven’t been enough to stop Covid but have had a huge impact on the flu season.
There may be other things going on, but I think (as does the CDC) that is the likeliest explanation. It’s just not plausible that people are counting flu cases as Covid.
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SubscribeThrow away all flu this Covid that, cases increase etc etc. Instead don’t label anything and look at how the population is faring wrt illnesses, death and ICU.
If we do this we notice something odd. This year is no different to any other year. OMG.
Respiratory illnesses kill people. Even the common cold. There are multiple respiratory viruses that do the rounds every single year at exactly the same time hence the EuroMOMO website that is used to track this.
Covid is NOT dangerously different it is merely one of the many respiratory illness that we could die from. Keep fit and healthy, no masks, fresh air , sunshine, eat healthily etc etc and no matter which virus you catch, at worst, you will be taking Lemsips for a couple of days. Our immune system has coped with these viruses for millions of years until Covid was politicised.
As many experts have stated, stop the testing and you would not even notice anything different! The opinion of ex Pfizer VP Dr Mike Yeadon is well worth listening to.
Absolute agree 100 per cent!!!!
Hear hear! Very well put.
So why are there 31,417 excess deaths this year (up to mid June according to Prof Carl Heneghan and his superior debunking operation at the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine) ?
and from the same source under:
COVID-19 Mortality ““ ONS Update July 8, 2020 Jason Oke, Carl Heneghan
The number of deaths up to 26 June was 335,578 which is 54,023 more than the five-year average (of which 4,444 are excess Non-COVID deaths). There is a nice little histogram graph which shows the fewer / excess non Covid and Covid deaths from the begining of January to mid June.
and then there is the degree of illness (utilisation of hospitals) with flu versus Sars Cov 2. See the CDC :
Risk for In-Hospital Complications Associated with COVID-19 and
Influenza ” Veterans Health Administration, United States, October 1, 2018″“May 31, 2020 October 23
“The risk for respiratory complications was high, consistent with current knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza pathogenesis (1,6).
Notably, compared with patients with influenza, patients with COVID-19 had two times the risk for pneumonia, 1.7 times the risk for respiratory failure, 19 times the risk for ARDS, and 3.5 times the risk for pneumothorax, underscoring the severity of COVID-19 respiratory illness relative to that of influenza.”
and
“The percentage of COVID-19 patients admitted to an ICU (36.5%) was more than twice that of influenza patients (17.6%); the percentage of COVID-19 patients who died while hospitalized (21.0%) was more than five times that of influenza patients (3.8%); and the duration of hospitalization was almost three times longer for COVID-19 patients (median 8.6 days; IQR = 3.9″“18.6 days) than that for influenza patients (3.0 days; 1.8″“6.5 days) (p<0.001 for all).”
Why people persist in calling this beastie “just another flu” is beyond me. It consumes the current ‘lean and mean’ NHS capacity rapaciously once the case numbers go above a certain level and it tip toes into the older age groups. Hence the various real time experiments being conducted right now, all over the world to see how best to contain numbers in a given situation.
Carl Henigan May have quoted those figures but they don’t agree with other sources, and while the rest seems very interesting the NHS has nowhere near reached capacity and hasn’t this year.
I’d be more interested in why most western govts are so determined to destroy there economies and people’s freedoms for a possible mutation of the SARS virus.
Next time, please provide data from your sources about where the so called Covid19 or SARS COV2 virus has been isolated to use for testing accuracy and worthwhile and safe vaccine development.
Yes, exactly. It’s not that it’s clear there is no other way. far from it. A sledgehammer under all circumstances but what of Sweden?
> Carl Henigan May have quoted those figures but they don’t agree with other sources,
What other sources?
> Next time, please provide data from your sources about where the so called Covid19 or SARS COV2 virus has been isolated to use for testing accuracy and worthwhile and safe vaccine development.
Anyway, I suggest you Google the appropriate phrase “can you link to evidence that the virus was isolated is becoming fake moon landing level stupid” (seriously), where you’ll find a biologist linking to all the papers of people who isolated the virus. I’d link to it but UnHinged doesn’t like links, apparently.
Absolute tosh……the number of deaths were caused because of lockdown not this ephemeral disease called Covid that doesn’t seem to strike anyone older than the life expectancy age….ie. the average age of dying from Covid is 82…..You must work in the NHS to start quoting ridiculous ‘R’ stats….or maybe you work for the mercurial Neil Ferguson. Whatever, anyone who isn’t on the payroll of Bill Gates knows this is a load of rubbish……and even if it was something like the Black Death (which it isn’t….it isn’t even a cold for most people) , I would fight to the death my right to live my life the way I see fit rather than the life a bunch of snowflakes tell me I should. And please….FFS, DON’T MENTION ‘BEING SELFISH’.
Personally I think it’s the ones who support lockdowns who are the selfish ones. Probably they are still being furloughed so being paid for doing nothing, retired and afraid (so the world must comply to protect THEM) People who are unemployed and so don’t have to go to Job Centres, people working from home who don’t want to have to start going back to driving etc to go to work. Basically the “I’m all right Jacks” and they call us selfish because we can see through the deceit and are standing up to protect ourselves, and them if they only knew it
Have you looked at Euromomo death data?
My hunch is that when we look back at 2020 in January next year, and compare to the last 50 years, excess deaths this year will not look out of the ordinary in most countries.
Of course, we might see a general trend increase in excess deaths from 2021 onwards, particularly in those diseases that are best diagnosed and treated at an early stage. These deaths will be as a direct result of our obsession with Covid 19.
I’ve written this elsewhere but the western side of Europe had a very soft flu season in 2019. This stored up a lot of susceptible people that covid dealt with in March and April. Ivor Cummins has done some really good analysis on this. It’s also worth noting the 2018 flu season had 50,000 excess deaths. This year looks like being 8th in the league table of the last 27 years. Current indicators are not out of line with what we would normally expect. Tim Spector at KCL has an excellent handle on this and his data along with the ONS and the govt dashboard align. ICL REACT is a huge outlier and in my view should be ignored.
You are wasting your time Elaine. These people are covid deniers. They will actively seek anything that will counter your point of view because they are in denial.
Denial is the first stage of grief.
Could this more serious impact be related to the age of patient? If Covid is more symptomatic and dangerous for older people v flu as I have seen on graphs, then it is more likely to result in death or a long stay? More serious effects but for a smaller section of the population?
Tom,
Your argument seems plausible, but..
We have only just started wearing face masks, and socially distancing started mid March.
Why were the flu levels so low in Jan & Feb, and last year was a low flu year.
But if you are correct, then we do not need to be worried about overwhelming the NHS with both Corvid & Flu.
So panic over .
Remember lockdowns and oppressive policies suppress infection rates and save lives. If infection rates and deaths continue to go up the answer is more lockdowns and oppression.
It’s heads lockdown wins/tails lockdown wins.
The deaths are still average age of 80 and are less than flu and pneumonia, less than last year. Stop meaningless case data, the data that is important is ICU admissions and deaths.
Ruining our economy, poverty, ill health from the other diseases (Covid19 is 24th on the list of killers) isolation, fear and the destruction of family and school life is much more dangerous now! Covid19 is here to stay, like the flu.! Stop fear-mongering Government and media, start spreading positive health stories …a campaign of getting the population healthy!
Promote Vitamin D and C and Zinc supplements – not flawed tests and rushed vaccinations.
The virus has been selected as a political tool and is being used to force a political agenda, the great reset. The fear mongering is a necessary part of the disinformation and propaganda campaign.
Bang on. https://www.youtube.com/wat…
I think you missed the point of that comment.
You must all be 77th Brigade commenting on this site. Have you not watched any Lockdown TV? Lockdowns don’t suppress any virus….how could they?
Nonsense, he’s clearly Bavarian Illuminati, not 77th Brigade. Be careful: If you don’t log off UnHinged and put your tin foil hat on, he’ll irradiate you with 5G.
Good point!
Or even the non-mysterious way is that the people who would normally be taken by flu etc are going on the Covid pile….I get your logic and you could be absolutely right (although I hope not because there are people stupid enough to think that mandatory mask wearing should be here to stay). As for the benefits of mask wearing, I would rather wait to see the recent Danish study (that oddly nobody wants to publish) before we decide if they work, and even if they do, wont they diminish our immune systems over the long term causing even more problems down the line.
I have always wanted the best option for the most amount of people, that will probably involve making some uncomfortable but brave calls, but I don’t trust any of these cowards in government to do anything other than take the easy option based on single issue thinking from SAGE, dodgy polling and/or pressure from the msm.
The most depressing spectacle for a layman is watching these supposed experts all over the place with their data, surely the WHO should have standardised every countries methods to get a clear picture so as to formulate an effective response, they are FIFA for health.
The Danish mask study. They have the option of publishing it on a pre print server but have chosen not to do so for the time being.
The reason according to this Twitter person corresponding with Thomas Lars Benfield, one of the investigators :
Alex Berenson @AlexBerenson Oct 18
I have confirmed the authenticity of the email with him directly. I asked about an unreviewed preprint since it’s been delayed so long, but he says not everyone on the team agrees that makes sense.
So apparently a little intra-team friction here.
Thx Elaine, appreciate the info
Or it could be that there are a limited number susceptible to complications from respiratory illness each year and Covid is merely bearing flu to the end line.
Otherwise it seems a fortuitous coincidence that we have reduced flu to just the levels needed to keep deaths from respiratory infection no higher this year with covid than they were last year without it (for this time of year).
I think there was a similar finding made in 2009 in relation to the interaction between swine flu and rhinoviruses.
Just something else to consider, the social distancing might be working for flu as well (or instead – doesn’t really seem to work for Covid).
Agree!
Good post. The second paragraph says so clearly why I think that all the restrictions probably have had no effect on the numbers whatsoever.
I have adopted a different approach when looking at Covid stories/narratives. If someone is a proven real scientist with a track record i listen. Journalists/people with a humanities background i don’t listen to. I have found my life has become a lot calmer as i watch the surrounding madness!
Ah yes, listen to the science. Funny that the scientists don’t agree. It takes years for scientific theory to be proved and anyone who is a scientist should know that.
A scientific theory is never “proved”. It just describes reality better than other theories. Galileo and Newton were “right” until Einstein came along. General ralativty is a good theory because it means we can set the clocks in GPS satellites properly, whereas the Galileo-Newton description of time and motion doesn’t work for that. But doubtless there will be even more sophisticed theories that decribe reality even better.
Masks did not stop the flu epidemic in Japan last year.
Ah, I see. All those measures, like people wearing a grubby mask, never washed, not even covering their nose, touching their face, and the filthy damp mask all the time have stopped flu in it’s tracks. It was that easy. If only we’d known this 100 years ago, and all that research into masks wasn’t wrong.
Actually, I shouldn’t give them any ideas….
I agree.
Viruses are older than all animal life.
If masks stopped viruses then surely some animal somewhere would have evolved a natural mask to protect it. This would have made evolutionary sense. Over billions of years it would have happened.
Please can someone find such an animal.
There are 2 problems (at least) with Mr Chivers argument. Firstly the tests are fundamentally flawed, and have no relationship with the Covid-19 disease, and secondly, there is no evidence that masks reduce the spread of the virus.
I started buying a yearly flu jab over thirty years ago because I was self-employed and couldn’t afford to be out of operation for any length of time. This is the first year I’ve skipped it because I’ve already made the calculation that the precautions I’m taking against Covid also protect against flu. So why put myself at additional risk by queueing at the surgery for a flu jab?
When in past autumns have we been told to wear masks, wash our hands and observe social distancing? Never in my 70+ years, therefore it is not surprising that there is no mention of flu, and doubtless we have spent millions acquiring the vaccine. The whole approach is counter intuitive !!
One reason that flu is down is that international travel is down.
One of the reasons is that the Government is following a strategy that was designed to control pandemic flu. As the spread of flu is linear and so the Ro value has some relevance. The reason why COVID-19 numbers are high is that corona virus is more of a stochastic spread. Key to this is super-spreaders. Some infected people may not spread the virus at all to others whereas about 20% of infected people will spread it to a lot more than a virus that is spread with a linear spread. Ro then has less relevance. So controls to limit a pandemic flu outbreak may reduce a flu epidemic but it is not the correct strategy to control corona virus spreading largely by super-spreaders.
The Swedish strategy does seem to have worked though. Sweden has seen a smaller rise in cases than us but still significant, but per capita deaths are falling – below Germany now.
Why don’t we try to learn from what has worked elsewhere rather than just repeating the same old flawed strategy which has failed in most other places around the world?
I suggest the spread of flu is linear because we have a vaccination programme which is designed to keep it linear – not so with Sars-CoV2 (CV). The additional non-mingling, social distancing, mask wearing measures will suppress both flu and CV.
The key is to keep CV infection rates low enough to prevent hospital overload. Identify a package of measures which keeps R less than or equal to 1 and apply it everywhere except where the current rate of infection is going to overwhelm the NHS locally/regionally, then stricter measures are necessary to bring it down quicker and then apply the R=1 regime.
Not as simple as that I know – one of the keys, IMHO, is compensating in full people who should isolate and prosecuting those that don’t.
Tom, you miss the real point…all the people vulnerable to the flu have already died from Covid-19.
Or both
Yes, as if there was a difference between the two!
The flu vaccine may have something to do with it. I wonder if take up is higher than usual.
Empty Test Centres All Over 🇬🇧 HDTV Video what’s all this
YOU TUBER watch?v=iLmOWWcjRTg
Why are these places empty? Here’s some video from all over the U.K…
Join the dots. https://www.youtube.com/wat…
People didn’t seem able to figure out that increasing concern about hygiene, masks, more hand washing, distancing etc, would also work for things like Flu. It’s almost like the flu comparisons were disingenuous in the first place…
Tom Chivers……I don’t know how old you are…I’m guessing somewhere between 25 and 35. I don’t know what your discipline is….I’m guessing something medical but that you weren’t bright enough to make med school so you spend your time PRETENDING you know something about Western medicine…maybe you do, maybe you don’t. I make these claims, because your artile sounds and reads like it’s the kind of thing someone with ego would make…but with little experience or real-life wisdom would make. ‘It’s just not plausible that people could be counting Covid infections instead of influenza’……..and yet until Dec 2019, no-one had ever heard of Covid19, but we have had what 150 years experience of flu. Does that really sound plausible to you? You cite the CDC in your article. Is that the same CDC that has said for years that vaccines don’t cause autism, but followingThomas Verstraeten’s study linking thimerosol to autism, the CDC then shredded data linked to the study in 2004, a fact confirmed by William Thompson who headed up the team when he came out as a whistle-blower around 2016. The whole Covid 19 is a scam……yes there was a man-made coronavirus virus that came out of Wuhan called Sars-Cov2, but as Dr Bhuttar has said, it was only ever a threat to the elderly of immune compromised individuals. The testing is a crock of shit and they had to wait for its inventor to die in September 2019, so that he couldn’t add his voice to the fact.
But I suspect you know all this.
I wonder how much you’ve been paid and by whom to write such an article.
No matter.
I suggest you watch UK Column on Youtube, where the team have proved it was the act of lockdown that provided a ‘spike’ in deaths and it is the same policy that most murderous governments are now following around the globe to ‘fabricate’ deaths from a virus that you have to be tested to know you have it.
You can’t catch ‘flu if you died of Covid.
Exactly.
It’s somewhat surprising that a ‘science writer’ doesn’t even mention the fact that many of the people who died of Covid 19 are the same ones who would have died of flu given they are very old (average age of death 82.4) and usually unwell with at least one other co-morbidity (96%). I’d suggest these are obvious points and I’d like to ask the author why he didn’t make them.
Maybe the only effective measures against corona/flu viruses are better hygiene, diet and fitness. Who knew!
I agree.
Flu this winter in OZ and NZ were on the floor. In NZ its simply because whilst there were no restrictions for the majority of the winter people are more sensible. Washing Hands, Hygiene and a little SD does it. Flu and Sars Cov 2 have different transmission rates but they are caught in the same way and equally prevented in the same way. In other words and rather ironically the Kiwi’s used the Swedish Model this winter (low intervention) and nailed the flu.
Oh boy, so Tom believes in PCR-testing and the effectivity of the measures. Poor soul, poor world. While it’s so obvious that many of the COvid-19 symptoms overlay with common flew and many other respiratory syndroms, but who cares, the flew just dissapeared while COvid-19 didn’t, although the method of transmission is quite the same, hilarious.