We’re used to election gambles — David Cameron rolling the dice on a European referendum, Ed Miliband deciding it was a good idea to pose beside a massive metaphor for his own political demise — but this is something else. After two Tory candidates have been investigated over betting on the date of July’s general election, and party social media managers have been compelled to delete an ill-judged attack ad featuring a roulette wheel and asking the public not to “bet” on Labour, more evidence has emerged about the Conservatives’ gambling problem.

Excl: Here’s what happens if you scrape Betfair data for bets on a July election.

This graph cuts off at the end of 21 May, the day before Sunak announced the election.

There’s a flood of bets that day – before Rishi formally told the cabinet and stood in Downing Street. pic.twitter.com/AfKyzAbDBQ

— Jim Waterson (@jimwaterson) June 20, 2024

Journalist Jim Waterson has unearthed data from bookmaker Betfair which suggests that on 21 May, there was a significant spike in bets placed on a July election date. That’s the day before Rishi Sunak publicly called a general election, and apparently when he told Tory insiders about his plans. All above board, no doubt.

America’s political establishment is once again sidelining a third-party candidate from the democratic process. And no, it’s not RFK Jr this time.

Jill Stein, the Green Party spoiler candidate who cost Hillary Clinton the 2016 election, has filed an FEC complaint over her exclusion from the upcoming presidential debate. “We think that the American people are really hungry for a real debate, not just the two zombie candidates that are being rammed down our throats again,” she told Scripps, a TV channel.

Joe Biden, meanwhile, finds himself between a rock and hard place. While another Left-wing candidate could potentially scrape some votes off his margins, having another body on the stage to argue with Trump and take up time and attention could only help him. Speaking of which, is Cornel West still running?