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Election forecaster Nate Silver has updated his model for the match between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, and it’s not looking great for the likely Democratic nominee.
Nate Silver relaunches his model with Kamala Harris at 38.1% to win the Electoral College and 53.5% to win the popular vote (what a country!). When he retired the Biden-Trump model Biden was down to 27%https://t.co/YRLzamVv4i pic.twitter.com/jYxpEVLNmy
— Jesse Singal (@jessesingal) July 30, 2024
Trump is leading Harris 61-38 in Silver’s probability model for the electoral college, which determines the outcome of the election, while Harris is favoured to win the popular vote by 53-46. While not an optimal outcome for Democrats, it’s a major improvement on last month. When Biden was still on the ticket, his probability of winning was only 27%.
“Stranger things have happened than a candidate who was behind in the polls winning”, Silver writes. It’s not over yet.
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