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We all need a Devil to play Advocate People make better arguments when they take their opponents seriously

'Look I can see you're an open-minded gentleman...' Photo: JOSH EDELSON/AFP via Getty Images

'Look I can see you're an open-minded gentleman...' Photo: JOSH EDELSON/AFP via Getty Images


June 23, 2020   5 mins

In the Catholic Church, when someone was being put forward for sainthood, the supporters of their canonisation would put forward the miracles and good works that they had performed in their lifetime. But someone else — the promotor fidei, promoter of the faith — would take the opposite tack. They would go through the candidate’s life, looking for things they’d done wrong; or look for evidence that the purported miracles ascribed to them were fraudulent or illusory. The promotor fidei was better known as the advocatus diaboli, or the devil’s advocate.

(You can see why, given the Catholic Church’s recent history, it might be important to check for skeletons in the closet of any potential saints. They weren’t so careful with their Papal knighthoods, for instance. But the office of promotor fidei no longer exists.)

Strangely — to my mind — the idea of the devil’s advocate is pretty unpopular these days. I remember using the phrase once and someone responding dismissively “Oh, a big ol’ swig of devil’s advocaat,” which was pretty funny, I have to admit. But playing devil’s advocate is now (in some circles, at least) considered a cover for racism and/or sexism, only a step removed from “I’m not a racist, but…”, and stories about it are illustrated with pictures of Milo Yiannopoulos. 

It’s a form of what I think of as intellectual inoculation. You take some weakened form of an argument and expose yourself to it, and then when you come across the real thing in the wild, you have a ready-made defence. I should really stress that, although the dislike of the devil’s advocate comes mainly from the left, intellectual inoculation is apolitical – everyone does it.

The most perfect forms are those “bingo cards” you see sometimes. I remember them especially from the great atheist-creationist wars of the 2000s, but they’re common all over the place. They give you weakened versions of the arguments you’re likely to see, so when you do bump into them, you’re prepared.

A few seconds’ Googling found me this one, a “feminist bingo” card. When someone tries to tell you that women shoulder more of the unpaid labour burden than men do (surely an undeniable truth), you can simply say “Ah ha! ‘Women do all the housework!’ Cross that off the bingo card!” Or if they say “A sexist society forces men into specific gender roles,” you can say “Oh! ‘Patriarchy hurts men too!’ Bingo!” There are plenty of these cards.

Inevitably enough there are also anti-feminist bingo cards, TERF bingo cards, trans activist bingo cards, conservative bingo cards, liberal bingo cards, alt-right bingo cards, “skeptical sexist” bingo cards, ad infinitum.

It’s a really clever idea. If someone says to you “We’re worried about opening up female-only spaces to people with male bodies,” you don’t have to think about the response to that, because you’ve already been inoculated against it. You can just say “Oooh! Men trying to invade our spaces! BINGO.” The weakened form of the argument has prepared your intellectual immune system, and you can reject it without a second’s thought.

Again: this isn’t limited to one side or other of any of the million arguments going on in our public spaces at the moment, and it’s not limited to bingo cards. Back in those atheist-creationist wars (which were the whole internet, until the race-gender wars took over), there were entire lists of The Enemy’s arguments (“the Courtier’s reply!”). You could have quite in-depth arguments going back and forth just by listing them. (“Seventeen!” “Oh, good shot. Three hundred and forty-four, section B.” “Nicely played, sir. Nicely played.”) 

Arguing against the devil’s advocate is this but in a more general form. If you encounter any counter-argument, you can simply say “oh, a big swig of the ol’ devil’s advocaat,” and ignore it. It’s like a broad-spectrum vaccine.

(As an aside: sarcasm does the same thing. If you say some obviously ridiculous argument in sarcastic form, like “Oh, I’m sure if we tear down statues of slave traders it will end racism forever/everyone will immediately forget all of history,” you inoculate people against the more reasonable non-sarcastic versions of the argument, like “if we tear down statues of slave traders, it might help reduce racism somewhat/have some impact on people’s understanding of history”.)

We are all subject to confirmation bias and cognitive dissonance; it is fun and easy to listen to arguments you agree with, but painful and hard to listen to (or be forced to take seriously!) the ones you don’t. That’s why this sort of intellectual inoculation is so popular and effective. But it’s also why we ought to be very wary of it.

A couple of counterpoints. First, there is a real thing that “don’t play devil’s advocate” is warning against. There really are people who will use it as cover to be arseholes. In that respect, it’s very like the “free speech” debate – free speech is (I think) genuinely important and worthy of protecting, not just from government censorship but from socially imposed consequences such as “cancelling”.

But inevitably, if you raise a banner of “we welcome free speech”, you’ll attract a bunch of people who genuinely care about free speech, and also a bunch of grim edgelords who just want to say horrible things to upset people. Similarly, if you say “people should be willing to listen to other people playing devil’s advocate,” then someone will use that as cover to say “but just playing devil’s advocate, what if Hitler was right?”

This is a hard problem and I don’t think there’s a simple way around it. Sometimes it’s fine to dismiss arguments; sometimes people are abusing principles of free speech or debate. But in general, the problem we have with The Discourse isn’t that we are too willing to take other people’s arguments seriously, or that we lack ways of ignoring or dismissing them. The principle of charity is not in danger of being worn out through overuse. I think we can afford to err on the side of caution on this one.

Second, there’s a difference between getting Christopher Hitchens in to argue against the canonisation of Mother Teresa, and someone popping up unasked in your mentions when you thought you were having a private conversation. But again, it’s not an easy problem to solve. Public arguments should be subject to public discussion, and (online, at least) the distinction between “private conversation” and “public argument” is increasingly fuzzy.

I don’t want to overstate this, and say that we’ll be unable to progress as a society or understand each other’s positions if we ban devil’s-advocating. But people stress-testing your beliefs will improve them; God knows it helps me when people point out my latest idiocy or non-sequitur. 

It also has real-life consequences. I write about superforecasting fairly often, so forgive me for returning to the topic. Essentially superforecasters are people who do well at predicting the future, when asked to make stark, falsifiable, time-limited predictions: “Will there be more than 200,000 confirmed cases in the state of Georgia by the 16th of May 2020?”, that sort of thing. And a recent Time article points out that “superforecasters” have done significantly better than experts – epidemiologists, virologists – at predicting the spread of Covid-19. 

So while back in April it appeared that superforecasters were outperforming the experts on coronavirus predictions, now there’s much more evidence to support that idea. The two superforecasters I spoke to about it have outscored the domain experts, on average, over 20 predictions.

One reason that superforecasters are better is that they deliberately and actively look for reasons why they might be wrong. The superforecasters interviewed in the Time piece call that “red-teaming” – that is, getting someone to look for the problems in your thinking, to see where you’ve made missteps. It’s like a software company paying white-hat hackers to try to break into your intranet, to make sure it’s secure.

Or, of course, like the Catholic Church putting a prospective saint to the test.

In forecasting, we can see that process at work. The people who do best at predicting the future are the ones who are most open to hearing opposing arguments. If we remove the devil’s advocate from our thinking altogether, we literally become slightly dumber. Sometimes the statue crying tears of blood is a fake; we need the advocatus diaboli to sort the real miracles from the frauds.


Tom Chivers is a science writer. His second book, How to Read Numbers, is out now.

TomChivers

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David Morley
David Morley
3 years ago

The superforecasters interviewed in the Time piece call that “red-teaming” ““ that is, getting someone to look for the problems in your thinking, to see where you’ve made missteps.

Something I believe Dominic Cummings is keen on.

We shouldn’t just be doing this, we should be building it into our educational practice.

We badly need to develop young people whose response to disagreement is to sharpen their wits or change their minds, not resort to insults and ad hominem. Though first, of course, we need teachers at all levels who are more attached to reason, the pursuit of truth and the development of children’s minds than they are to their own dogmas.

mccaffc
mccaffc
3 years ago

J.S. Mill in On Liberty pointed out that if a correct view isn’t routinely challenged, it is held not as a considered position but as a prejudice.

Cheryl Jones
CJ
Cheryl Jones
3 years ago

“I can’t see them welcoming a Devil’s Advocate’s view of their dearly held beliefs. They are in the right ““ no question.”

But surely that is the very reason why we need to be brave enough to play Devil’s Advocate with them? Too often we have sympathy with their position but questions or concerns about the specifics – it is right to question those things but right now no-one is prepared to step into the fray because of the consequences of challenging what is increasingly becoming more like religious dogma (back to the online wars of the 2000s then)

Clive Mitchell
Clive Mitchell
3 years ago
Reply to  Cheryl Jones

Deleted

Peter Boreham
Peter Boreham
3 years ago

Is it that we have lost the ability to critique even our own thoughts or to respond reasonably to those who do? Or is it more that only the shrill voices are heard because the rest of us have more important things to do than argue with strangers on the internet?

Michael Sweeney
Michael Sweeney
3 years ago

With 8 years of Jesuit education well behind me, my fascination with all Latin references continues to soar. Great article, again.

Ray Hall
Ray Hall
3 years ago

Thank you for the article . Other approaches to testing people’s assertions were looked at by Karl Popper with his careful comments about the difference between propositions that are in principle refutable and those which are not . You could also argue that a jury trial , properly conducted , is a good way of testing arguments to destruction assuming that you can get the lawyers to abstain from cheap rhetoric.

Cheryl Jones
Cheryl Jones
3 years ago

Similarly, if you say “people should be willing to listen to other people playing devil’s advocate,” then someone will use that as cover to say “but just playing devil’s advocate, what if Hitler was right?”

And, just playing Devil’s Advocate – so what if they do? I would be very interested in discussing such a thing if only to get an insight into the mind of someone who thinks that way, or to shine a light on those beliefs and expose them for what they are.

Andrew Baldwin
Andrew Baldwin
3 years ago
Reply to  Cheryl Jones

I agree, Cheryl. Hitler was a monster, but I think it is interesting that Tom used Hitler in his example, not a Communist mass-murderer like Lenin or Mao. And right about what? I find there is too often a tendency to assume that because a tyrant’s work was evil on balance, he was wrong about everything. To look at Lenin, rather than Hitler, I remember reading conservative journo Peter Cook denouncing Lenin’s New Economic Policy as if it were a terrible economic blunder, when it was in fact a sensible pullback from the terrible economic blunder of War Communism, partially restoring market mechanisms in the Soviet economy. A debate on “What if Lenin was right about the New Economic Policy?” would be an interesting debate. I suspect a debate on “What if Hitler was right about making the Sudetenland part of Germany?” would be an interesting one too, without prejudging the outcome.

Alex Mitchell
Alex Mitchell
3 years ago

This is good for honing and better understanding your arguments and therefore strengthening them, which is well worth doing. The real challenge comes when it exposes fundamental flaws and you have to change. This is the real reason for the bingo card response because it cuts off that requirement. When someone is ideologically driven and has a poorly thought through position, it will not help move things forward one jot as their defence is not rational and so will not be rationally defeated. Where there are two reasonable people involved, a willingness on both sides to adjust position at least slightly is more beneficial to optimising wicked problems than a beautifully constructed argument.

Ed B
Ed B
3 years ago

“Imagine discussing a contentious issue with a BLM protestor, an Extinction Rebellion disciple, a Momentum activist, a militant feminist.”

Or a Proud Boy, a Tommy Robinson supporter, a Male Rights Activist, a UKIP member, a Brexiteer…

If you’re going to go around attaching these labels to people you’re doing another form of what is being described in the article with Bingo cards. Wait for something that might put the person in the group, and then discount everything they are saying, because they can’t possibly be right.

James Watson
James Watson
3 years ago

The reference to Hitchens was almost inevitable, but not sure it’s apt. If the point is to see the possible counter arguments and develop cogent responses to them then the Hitchens example doesn’t really work. I have never seen a decent rebuttal of his points, nor do I think one is possible

GA Woolley
GA Woolley
3 years ago

‘Sometimes the statue crying tears of blood is a fake;’ You cannot seriously suggest, when arguing against ‘becoming dumber’, that sometimes the statue’s ‘tears of blood’ are real?